I don't think anyone can answer that for you since the system is different.
AFROTC scholarships are a nation wide competition, it does not matter where you live or what school you are going to attend. AFA apptmts have a lot to do with winning the nom. Yrs ago, there was only 1 applicant that got the Terre Haute nom, they won the appt. I don't know if they applied for AFROTC, but maybe if they did they could have not received a scholarship.
Also, realize that in the past few yrs AFROTC scholarship applications have increased dramatically due to the economic environment. They have a limited pot of money.
If you are looking for a statistical number that got accepted into the AFA without receiving a AFROTC scholarship, I would say it happens, but the odds are not high.
Just hang tight, you will know for a fact in a few short days.weeks.