The AFOQT is a test given in SEPT/OCT time frame it is similar to the SAT. Just like the SAT, this will be a part of your file and when your child meets their board for career assignments it will be a part of the decision making process along with their GPA and their major. The higher the AFOQT score the better chance of getting your 1st choice job assignment.
There is a difference from the SAT, this test is given 1x, so there is no super scoring, in that way it is more like the AP tests. Also in this test they are going to test their spatial skills regarding flying. There are kids who study their butts off for it and those that don't. I believe the cut off marker for flying is in the high 70's, but realistically to get a UPT slot you need to be in the high80's/90's. I would think with the pipeline slowing down that number will move up to the 90's.
It is important to understand that even as a contracted ROTC cadet you can lose the scholarship for a myriad of reasons. Failing the PFA is one of them. All ROTC cadets take the PFA 2x a yr, essentially at the start of each semester.
GPA also is a player regarding contracted status. When we don't have a RIF occurring or a slow down in the pipeline, they can and usually do opt to give extra chances, but that is at their discretion.
As I stated 2 cadets at our DS's det were officially informed that the AF has elected not to commission them. Since the AF has elected this, they will not be required to payback the scholarship. however, that brings little solace to the cadets who wanted to make the military a career.
I think for the class of 14 the AF will be back in the position of being more lenient. I say this because for 13 and 14 I saw on this thread lower scholarship types (as low as 2K a yr) and a lot more "thanks for applying, but at this time..." compared to yrs before. That means they have already slowed down their pipeline, reducing the need to cut ROTC commissioning classes.
The same is true for AFA. You saw through this site tightening of DODMERB waivers. Waivers mean that the AF is taking someone with a medical issue in their history and due to that they might be risking a medical re-occurence issue down the road on their dime.
Nobody can predict a RIF, not even the AF. The AFPC (Personnel Center) does long term strategic planning for manning power, however, since many are on obligation for 5 yrs before they can dive, they cannot determine to a precise nature how many will dive and how many will say, it is actually our economy that is the driving force in this situation. When the economy is strong, military members will dive, but when it is at 10% unemployment they are more likely to stay, because a paycheck is a paycheck. That means at the 5 yr marker they will commit to more time. That slows down the pipeline.
It is important to understand why a RIF occurs for certain yr groups over others. The first thing to understand is that Flag (Generals) to Field (Major, Lt. Col. and Col) to Company (Lts. and Captains) are a mandated ratio. If one group stays and messes the ratio up than there are basically 3 options. They are:
1. RIF
2. Speed up boards
3. Combination of both
In the current atmosphere, AFPC has decided that they cannot speed up the O4 board, so they are going to RIF certain commissioning yrs and certain fields are targeted.
Traditionally what you will then see is the O4 boards will speed up because if you are passed over 2x the AF can say BUH BYE with no severance check, just the amt of leave you can sell back. This allows the AF to get the field to company ratio back to the proper number.
The good news is I jokingly say the AF is bulimic. It will gorge and then purge, repeat do again. The ideal situation is to be in the class that is right after the purge because you will be the safest.
The warning sign of purging came way before the RIF was announced. Class of 10 from the AFA were given UPT dates of 10 months after graduation. Typically that is when the ROTC cadet goes to UPT. AFA grads go in July when the pipeline is flowing. ROTC grads start going in the Sept time frame.
The other warning sign of a RIF coming was when they washed out (BUH-BYE) AFA grads at UPT. When times are great they will wash them back (try again in the next class). When times are starting to get tight, they will convert them to a new field. There are a couple of parents I know through forums like this that their recent AFA grad (09) were just officially given their walking papers.
It is also important to understand that you may be commissioned through ROTC in May, but if you do not have a report date until March, you will not be collecting a paycheck. AFA cadets will be placed on casual status and actually report to a base, thus collect a check until they report at UPT.
Your child should look at what is currently on the hit list for the RIF because if that is their ultimate career field and it is being hit they need to have a strong conversation with the det commander regarding their AF career.
I wouldn't worry at this point, I think by the time he is commissioned the AF will be back on track regarding man power.
BTW pipeline typically means UPT slots, however, it is also true for any field that requires a member to attend school. For example, if you want to go Intel, you go to Intel school before going operationally. If the school use to have 4 classes a yr, but now it is down to 2, that means they are slowing the pipeline down and that should be a sign that they have plotted out that Intel officers are not leaving as fast as they use to and since they aren't they need to slow the flow, hoping that in time it will readjust.
