The fact is this is going to be devastating to the Pentagon. The assumption that for this yr it will not have an impact because it won't start until FY13 is BS. The original cut was 450 Billion, they now have to add 650 Billion more into their plans. Remember the DOD is not a mom and pop company, it doesn't turn on a dime (no pun intended) when planning a budget.
It is going to impact ROTC greatly because even though it will not start until 13, the DOD will have to assume that come 14 through 2023 they are going to be short 110 Billion a yr (450 +650 = 1 Trillion divide by 10 yrs). They already assumed it would be 45 Billion and the cuts were already showing up in little things like the AFA not requesting a waiver for class size, OCS boards being cancelled and fewer scholarships.
What they did in the 90's for ROTC was made scholarships almost non-existent. Instead of 25% on scholarship, they had 5-10%. Didn't pull that min gpa and there was no grace semester, the scholarship was gone. They cut cadets loose 3 months prior to graduation. That means for cadets on scholarship now, even those who will graduate in May, you are on the hook just like the 90's.
They also slowed down the rated pipeline, even shut down the Nav school for a small time. There was no such thing as washing back if you busted a ride. Instead it was washed out. Not only out of rated training, but the AF, and you were gone in days. Packed up and gone.
They also had to implement the RIF. They took in 91, 95% of AFROTC officers from yr group 84-86. 95%, that is not a typo. Our friend who flew in the Gulf, tons of nice medals, including the silver star, in Fighter Weapon School, and told him he was done.
Promotion boards sped up and reduced the percentage to @50-60% for a few yrs. Understand passed over twice with less than 16 yrs in AD, and they can kiss you goodby with no bennies. Rated officers were forced into non-rated assignments because the ones hit hardest were non-rated. You can take a flier and make them a maintenance officer, you can't convert a maintenance officer into a flier. Same with MSSQ, and PA.
Crap assignments were handed out...i.e. take this remote to Skorea or to Saudi Arabia OR 7 day opt out, your choice.
Pay raises were in the 1% level, while at the same time congress gave themselves 100%.
O'Clubs, gyms, golf courses, day care, MWR became NAF (non-appropriate funded). If they couldn't turn a profit they were forced to close. This is also when the infamous credit card came about, prior to that you had a membership card for each base you were assigned to at the time.
This is when dependents were shipped off base for medical needs, and smaller base hospitals started closing down their maternity wards, and ERs. It is also when new construction on housing came to a screeching halt, plus perks for living on base disappeared...i.e. no free flowers in the spring, no fences, if they didn't deem it as an emergency nobody was coming out over the weekend to fix anything in the home.
None of that has come back, except for new construction, so there is no squeezing money out of there.
They already stated tri-care for retirees will be increasing. So you can't find more money there. They will probably now charge more for AD tri-care, and concordia. They will also probably reduce the benefits in the plan to squeeze money.
That leaves us with hitting hardware to find the remainder of the money. The 35 once seen as the sacred cow because AF, Navy, Marines and 8 other countries will be on the hit list. That too will have a ripple effect on the UPT pipeline. If you cut the number of jets in the inventory, you need less pilots.
Bullet at work yesterday was joking with some Lockheed guys, and the guys stated they didn't know if they would have a job next week. Cut the 35 program, and Lockheed will cut their employee roles. This is going to impact more than just the military, it is going to impact the civilian world too. It will than come back and hit the military again. No jobs out there, and AD members won't dive. They don't dive and the military will need to implement a RIF to make them dive. Which in turn will increase unemployment from the lovely 9% to even higher because now it is not just defense contractors out of work, but military members too. They lose their disposable income and they are not shopping, which means retailers, restaurants, homes will take a hit and release their employees.
You see this has a much bigger impact than just the DOD. It will ripple throughout the country and not just at bases. Remember GE supplies engines for the military, and they too will lose jobs when less 35s are produced. Somebody somewhere makes the computer circuits for these planes. Somebody makes the paint, etc., etc., etc.
Finally, understand FY13 starts in 10 months, not 14 months in Jan. 2013, but instead Oct 1 2012. For anyone in ROTC they will tell you that their tuition reimbursement is not in their account Aug or Sept., but instead Oct. So, yes, this is something to concern yourself with because now they know without a doubt there will be a budget hit for Oct 1st next yr. They are on the hook for the scholarships now, so where do they do their 1st cut? Rationally think about it. They have to assume that until at least Oct 1st 2013, they will live with 110 Billion less. If it comes back 10/13, they can offer ISS, for 3 yrs. If it doesn't they are still cutting money.
Contracted scholarship cadets also get stipends and book money. It may be seen as pennies, but right now every penny counts.
Just my guess, but I bet at least for AFROTC, you will see very few Type 1s, few 2s and more 7s than have occurred historically over the past few yrs. Probably with the hope that the recipient will convert the 4 yr 7 to a 3 yr 2.
SFT was expected to increase in numbers this yr and IS scholarships to re-start, but I wouldn't be shocked if neither occurs. Once a cadet completes SFT, even non-scholarship they are contracted. If a scholarship cadet is not selected for SFT, they lose their scholarship and are out of AFROTC.
That will save them immediate money for 13. Not giving IS scholarships is also an immediate savings for 13 too.
I never thought I would say this, but the 90's will look like a cake walk IMPO for the military than what we will see for at least FY13.
Thank you lawmakers! Thank you for being so short sighted and partisan to not grasp how 1 in 6 jobs is tied to the DOD. Heck, what did I expect? Look what they did to the housing market? They didn't realize 1 of those 5 out of the 6 was tied to that industry! They still don't get that! So now they have hit 2 out of every 6 jobs. Guess we should be thankful that they bailed out the auto industry.
Not to make this political, but sorry, Mr. President why did you let it get to this point? If your kids were fighting, you would lock them in a room together until they apologized and made up, you wouldn't stand for them bickering. You wouldn't say that your favorite child was right, and the other child was completely wrong!
regarding scholarships.