Acceptance Rates Dropping?

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wingsofhonor

USAFA Class of 2017
5-Year Member
Joined
Dec 11, 2011
Messages
105
President Barack Obama has announced today the plans for a "leaner" US military. Thousands of troops are expected to be cut from duty. I just wanted to know if anyone's is also worried about how the Academies will stand. Rumors have also been floating around (especially after the King's Point situation) that the Service Academies will be affected. I just wanted to ask if anyone senses a drop in acceptance rates over the next few years (esp. Class of 2016, 2017, 2018, as they are quickly approaching) and a tightening of admission standards. Thanks and I hope I can stir up an educational debate!
 
I have a son who has received his MOC nomination and is waiting for an appointment and a son who is a C3C who just returned to the academy after Christmas Break. He said there has already been briefings about budget cuts and there will be affects at the academy level. Immediately some of the cleaning costs/work in the squads will be done by cadets and not outside contractors (essentially more work for the C4C as they do the cleaning) and there will be other impacts as they move forward. As branches of the US military the academies will clearly feel the budget cuts but I suspect the level of interest by the incoming candidates will remain quite high and extremely competitive. USAFA ranks very high in top colleges nationwide so best wishes for all of us in the waiting game......this feels like a long cold winter and I am in California.
 
blamo said:
I have a son who has received his MOC nomination and is waiting for an appointment and a son who is a C3C who just returned to the academy after Christmas Break. He said there has already been briefings about budget cuts and there will be affects at the academy level. Immediately some of the cleaning costs/work in the squads will be done by cadets and not outside contractors (essentially more work for the C4C as they do the cleaning) and there will be other impacts as they move forward. As branches of the US military the academies will clearly feel the budget cuts but I suspect the level of interest by the incoming candidates will remain quite high and extremely competitive. USAFA ranks very high in top colleges nationwide so best wishes for all of us in the waiting game......this feels like a long cold winter and I am in California.
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As a Class of 2017 Prospective, I can honestly say I am worried. I think I speak for all of the candidates when I express the anxiety and the nervousness experienced during the application process. And now, we are looking at a more competitive as well as a tougher academy. This isn't comforting. I completely understand the cold winter you are feeling. I gulp as I sit here reviewing my resume/GPA/SAT scores/etc, as I'm sure everyone else is. Thank you for the best wishes.
 
The air force has been reducing academy appointments for the last 4 years. Part is because of budget cuts, but a big reason is because federal law says the academy can only have 4400 cadets at the academy at one time; and only commissioning 1000 cadets each year. Well; we have been much higher than that in both categories. In the class of 2012, they appointed close to 1300 cadets. There's still close to 1100 who are seniors this year.

This past summer the academy started a major cutback and only appointed approximately 1170 cadets. This coming year, they are dropping it to approximately 1050. So yes, the air force academy is being affected, but it's not just because of military downsizing. it's also because the law says we can only so many, and we have TOO MANY.
 
I believe your collective worry might be misplaced. I think the worry should be in available jobs after graduation and potential length of service. If you look at the articles that have been generated, they are looking hardest at retirement benefits, force size and the B-35. Best way to arrest that cost is to separate the graduate during post grad training, assign to the national guard or any other method to prevent an officer from reaching retirement age. Many graduates of USNA have been "separated" during flight school for "low performance". I read, not sure if it is true, that only about 50% of USMA graduates make it regular service...not sure if I believe that though. The upshot is that in the coming years, they are going to be requiring less officers and enlisted personnel for their needs and budget. Gone are the days of planning for a two theater involvement in a traditional battle. They want to plan for one engagement...who said history repeats itself...seems like 1939 all over again.
 
Much will depend on the 2014 elections. If the Joker-in-Chief is replaced with someone with a smarter agenda, I would suspect the military budget to be a big focus. The world is not getting safer nor is space. With an arms race with china forthcoming and radicals in the mideast rattling sabres and threating the oil supply most all republicans and a several conservative democrats will realize a weak military is not the answer.

This too shall pass. And if not Australia is hiring our vets these days.
 
Texasrocks said:
Much will depend on the 2014 elections. If the Joker-in-Chief is replaced with someone with a smarter agenda, I would suspect the military budget to be a big focus. The world is not getting safer nor is space. With an arms race with china forthcoming and radicals in the mideast rattling sabres and threating the oil supply most all republicans and a several conservative democrats will realize a weak military is not the answer.

This too shall pass. And if not Australia is hiring our vets these days.
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Hence the history repeating itself quote. The reason for a relatively peaceful past 30 years is deterrence/power and the willingness to use it. Americans have an unrealistic view of the rest of the world and how powers behave....we must be prepared. If we forget our previous mistakes we are certainly doomed to repeat them.
 
Texasrocks said:
Much will depend on the 2014 elections. If the Joker-in-Chief is replaced with someone with a smarter agenda, I would suspect the military budget to be a big focus. The world is not getting safer nor is space. With an arms race with china forthcoming and radicals in the mideast rattling sabres and threating the oil supply most all republicans and a several conservative democrats will realize a weak military is not the answer.

This too shall pass. And if not Australia is hiring our vets these days.
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There is this issue of a $1.5 TRILLION shortfall in the budget, per year...
Cuts are coming, one way or another.

Also, if you fall under the UCMJ, it is not very intelligent to call the President names. Disagree with policy decisions all you want, but attacking the character of the President and/or Congressional members isn't a good idea.
 
Folks...please read and heed.

While I love a good debate, and if you have followed me on this and other forums, you know I won't shy away from them, I will put my foot down VERY fast when needed.

This forum is about the USAFA. It is NOT a place to malign, disrespect, or disparage. I don't care if you like/love/revere ANYONE...or hold the reverse feelings.

You will NOT "stoop so low" as to make comments like I just read.

Any more...and I will STEP DOWN, HARD.

Questions?

Steve
Moderator USAFA
 
Christcorp said:
This past summer the academy started a major cutback and only appointed approximately 1170 cadets.
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According to the US Air Force Academy Admissions Facebook page, the class of 2015:

http://www.facebook.com/AcademyAdmissions/posts/276885022345752

However, a different "Official" USAFA facebook page posted different numbers:
http://www.facebook.com/USAFA.Official
  • ‎"Friday Facebook Fun Fact: There were 12,713 applicants for the Class of 2015 with 1,159 of them earning appointments. This included 10 turnbacks (cadets who can't attend this year and will maintain a slot for next year) and nine international students. As of this morning, there are 1,138 basic cadets with three in our transition flight (going home)."
Hopefully someone at USAFA knows the actual number for the class of 2015.
 
flieger83 said:
Folks...please read and heed.

While I love a good debate, and if you have followed me on this and other forums, you know I won't shy away from them, I will put my foot down VERY fast when needed.

This forum is about the USAFA. It is NOT a place to malign, disrespect, or disparage. I don't care if you like/love/revere ANYONE...or hold the reverse feelings.

You will NOT "stoop so low" as to make comments like I just read.

Any more...and I will STEP DOWN, HARD.

Questions?

Steve
Moderator USAFA
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I am not a member of the military, just a parent of several who are.

While the gloves came off during the Bush adminstation from the opposition which included personal attacks and disrespect for the office, I agree that this is not the forum to discuss them. My apologies and I will not post any political comments in the future.
 
aglages said:
According to the US Air Force Academy Admissions Facebook page, the class of 2015:

http://www.facebook.com/AcademyAdmissions/posts/276885022345752

However, a different "Official" USAFA facebook page posted different numbers:
http://www.facebook.com/USAFA.Official
  • ‎"Friday Facebook Fun Fact: There were 12,713 applicants for the Class of 2015 with 1,159 of them earning appointments. This included 10 turnbacks (cadets who can't attend this year and will maintain a slot for next year) and nine international students. As of this morning, there are 1,138 basic cadets with three in our transition flight (going home)."
Hopefully someone at USAFA knows the actual number for the class of 2015.
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And this coming year, the appointments will be approximately 1050. (Do I have the exact planned number? Yes, but I'm too lazy to look it up again).

Point is; the OP wanted to know if there were going to be cutbacks at the academy. The answer is yes, but it's not just because of military cutbacks in general. It was already in the works, because the air force academy has been appointing and commissioning too many cadets for the last few years and they are no longer being allowed to waiver it, and thus must play catch up. They need to get the academy back down to 4400 cadets and commissioning no more than 1000. The military cutbacks may affect that appointments further, but this was coming whether there were economic issues or not.
 
Christcorp said:
And this coming year, the appointments will be approximately 1050. (Do I have the exact planned number? Yes, but I'm too lazy to look it up again).

Point is; the OP wanted to know if there were going to be cutbacks at the academy. The answer is yes, but it's not just because of military cutbacks in general. It was already in the works, because the air force academy has been appointing and commissioning too many cadets for the last few years and they are no longer being allowed to waiver it, and thus must play catch up. They need to get the academy back down to 4400 cadets and commissioning no more than 1000. The military cutbacks may affect that appointments further, but this was coming whether there were economic issues or not.
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I know that the 4400 cadets is a number that is written into law and requires a waiver to exceed this number. The 1000 commissioning number is one I see thrown around but have not seen it as a legal requirement. Is the 1000 max a legal requirement or just a historical benchmark?
 
Packer said:
The 1000 commissioning number is one I see thrown around but have not seen it as a legal requirement. Is the 1000 max a legal requirement or just a historical benchmark?
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Considering that there are over 1100 Firsties (seniors) on track to graduate in 5 months; if it is a law somebody needs to go to jail. Either that or they can just take it out on the 2014, 2015 and 2016 classes.
 
http://www.usafa.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123240940

The Air Force Academy Cadet Wing's end strength will decrease from approximately 4,500 cadets to 4,000 cadets by Oct. 1, 2012. The Academy will accomplish the reduction by reducing class size to 1,120 for the Class of 2015 and 1,050 for the Class of 2016. Beginning with the Class of 2017, the Academy will admit approximately 1,165 cadets in each class. In addition, normal attrition from the Academy will aid in bringing the cadet end strength to 4,000.
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This article is almost a year old but it shows that plans for the reduction in number of cadets has been in the works.
 
Packer said:
I know that the 4400 cadets is a number that is written into law and requires a waiver to exceed this number. The 1000 commissioning number is one I see thrown around but have not seen it as a legal requirement. Is the 1000 max a legal requirement or just a historical benchmark?
Click to expand...

No, the 1000 isn't by law. The 4400 is by law; but the academies understand that they will not have 100% retention. They even have rules that allow you to quit up to the start of your 3rd year. The theory/goal/objective/reality, or whatever you want to call it, is that out of an academy force of 4400 cadets, the largest class size is the freshman class with a continual reduction each year. So with an overall retention of 90%, you'd have on average, a graduating class of 1000.

The class of 2011 had 1021 commissioned. Class of 2010 had 1001. Class of 2009 1046. 1012 for the class of 2008. As you can see, that is higher than desired, and the reason for that, is because there were more than 4400 at the academy. 2008 started a whole new world when the economy took a major nose dive. The first class (Class of 2012) saw much higher retention. I believe that the graduating class is going to be close to 1100. I don't have the source in front of me, but I believe at the beginning of the 1st semester, the cadet wing was up to 4619 cadets. That's why the main cuts.
 
They expect 90% retention? That seems at least 10% higher than averages...
 
The 90% would be an optimum. Obviously perfection would be bring in 1000 new cadets; all succeed; all want to be there; and all 1000 graduate 4 years later. But that isn't realistic.

Then again, just like current military draw downs in war zones and economic restraints, the military strength needs are always changing. Trying to balance those who newly commission and enlist with those who separate early or after their initial commitment, with those who stay in for a career, is also a best guess effort.

The thing is, none of this is new. I, along with many others here, have seen these reductions a number of times before. And then there will be new buildups later on when the economy flourishes and strengths are down. There isn't one thing happening today or being proposed that hasn't happened in the past. And it will happen again in the future.
 
Does anyone know if we enlisted folk are going to see a loss of slots? The website says there are 85 every year; I imagine that will be cut as well? :confused:
 
My DD is in the class of 2015. After grades were posted, she found out her class rank, and it was out of 1050 cadets. Assuming everone came back from Christmas break, there are currently 1050 cadets in the class of 2015.
 
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