One thing to understand about the military and ROTC is this is cyclical, it happened in the 70's after Vietnam, it happened in the 90's after the Gulf and it is happening now.
It is not only about the drawdown in size, but also because of the economy. Each branch has long term strategic plan of how many (%) will do 4 and the door (ROTC) and 5 and dive (SA), on top of those who will leave mid-career (10 yrs) and those who will retire at 20 yrs and a day. When the unemployment rate is high, retention rate is high, and that is on of the issues we are facing now. Their manpower numbers are over their needs, which means they must cut. Each branch has their specific numbers they must meet, and each branch will address it differently..it is not apples to apples.
That being stated, 5 yrs later after the 92 draw dow, because the economy was growing, and they had fewer ROTC cadets/mids the rates change regarding the amount they kept compared to the amount they released. That is where you are now, you are asking as a HS sr what will happen 5 yrs from now for FY2016/17. FY budgets run 10/01-09/30 for current yrs...right now it is FY11/12
If the Army is your 1st choice, don't go Navy because you believe it will be easier or may save you, go because it offers you the best chance for your 1st and 2nd and 3rd career options. Remember even when numbers are good there is no guarantee you will get your dream. The guarantee is you owe 4 yrs of your life, and they own you.
I also would like to remind you that each branch has a min gpa for ROTC scholarships, and they can vary a lot from 2.0 to 2.8 when it comes to keeping the scholarship. Not only that, but NROTC offers 85% to STEM majors, and you can't just decide after 1st semester that you will transfer over to non-tech. You need their approval to do this as a scholarship recipient.
You need to ask yourself as a scholarship recipient, what will I do if I lose it, can I afford to stay at the college. Both A/NROTC scholarships are tied to the college, and it is great that you can attend that college, but not so great if it is the major reason you can attend. Talk to your folks now about the OMG what if I do loose the scholarship after my freshman yr, can we afford me to stay or will I need to transfer to a lower cost college?
Kids and parents are so excited to see the acceptance and scholarship that typically they take it for granted that 4 yrs are paid for a school and never address the what if issue. What if you play ultimate frisbee with friends from the dorm, get injured and now are medically DQ to serve? Granted low chances of that happening, but low is not 0, even 1 in a 1000 means, 1 on scholarship in your yr group will have this occur. How will you stay there if you can't afford it? Look at many posters on this forum, where cadets/mids ranging from fresh to sr now have financial burdens because of things they believed when they were awarded would never be an issue or factor in their life.
Emotionally, getting cut hurts alot, but it is something you will get over. Getting dis-enrolled and being forced to leave the college of your dreams because you didn't have a back up plan on how to pay for it, saying goodbye to your military career, your college and your friends would be hard for a person that is 50 with a life experience, let alone a 19 yo for their 1st life experience.
If you want the Army, and really want it, you will be commissioned; the reason why is simple...you want it. If that means you will tell your friends on Thursday night I can't go to the BB game of Duke vs UNCCH because I have a mid-term tomorrow, you will tell them that. If it means that you run every Sunday morning in rain, snow or heat to get a better PFT score you will do it.
Success in the military, even in a downturn is not just about the branch cutting, it is also about your drive and determination to prove to them why they should invest in you over someone else. Yes, they have control, but not 100%, you also have control over your ROTC career. The amount you put in, or lack there of, will be a factor.
I am not trying to antagonize, I am just asking you look into your heart, and ask yourself, if you had 3 secs to choose which branch you must dedicate at least 8 yrs (4 college, 4 after) what would be your answer? Trust me we did this with DS, literally counted, 3,2, 1.
From there we played devil's advocate for his choice and asked him to defend it. Gave him every hard question. Once he had to defend his position, he understood that he made his choice for himself and was able to move forward with confidence.
Here's my devil's advocate questions for you:
1. Crystal ball 4 yrs from now the Army will guarantee your dream career, but the Navy won't, do you want to be in the Navy?
~~~Are you ready to sit in a sandbox for 6 months? Are you ready to live on a boat?
~~~ These are opposite spectrums, and yes, I get it you want either Army or Navy and would be happy with either, but JMPO, your avatar is aviation and the thing they have in common are helos.
2. Neither will give you choice 1, which branch will make you happier with choice 2?
~~~ Sandbox, Korea, or water? Just giving the worst. I believe in hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
3. What is the min cgpa for NROTC compared to AROTC, and NROTC is 85% STEM, you did not state you are an NROTC scholarship recipient. From what I understand NROTC is a meld of both AROTC and AFROTC...AROTC is college tied, AFROTC is STEM tied.
~~~If you are not scholarship for NROTC you must be by the end of your sophomore yr, just like AFROTC. Can be wrong, and I openly admit it, but if that is true, and your intention is non-STEM, have you looked into what you need to make this cut as far as it goes with the cgpa? AROTC scholarship min is 2.0, AFROTC is 2.8, that is a huge range.
Long post I know, but my goal was to get you from tunnel vision to a bigger picture and look deep into what you want for your future.
Best of luck, and from my family thank you for stepping up to the plate to defend this country so our children can live striving for their dreams without sacrificing their personal lives.