There will always be young kids that haven't researched enough and just seeks guidance from people that have been there before and know more.
If the question was: "Do you think I am qualified?" rather than "what are my chances?" then the USAFA admissions FAQ should suffice.
In this case the OP just wanted to ask "what are his chances?" with what he has presented and hopefully a stellar score in the ACT. It may not be far-fetched to just encourage the young boy and say that-yes!, your chances are good. Keep up the good job and stay out of trouble. Your chances are way much better than one who never tried.
Sorry icarus. I just can't do that. And Blake, just because someone doesn't jump up and down with encouragement, DOESN'T MEAN that they are "Discouraging" you either. If you're looking for reinforcement of your accomplishments, I'm sure there are plenty here that will give it to you. That's simply not my style. I prefer to tell you the truth. And the truth is: I and other ALO's have seen individuals with 4.0 gpa's and 30+ ACT's NOT GET an appointment. This isn't meant to discourage. If anything, it's meant to ENCOURAGE YOU to exercise ALL of your options. The truth is: If you are indeed qualified to receive an appointment to a military academy, then what you SHOULD be doing is:
1. Applying to ALL the academies that interest you.
2. Applying for ROTC scholarships to whatever schools interest you.
3. Applying to NO LESS than 5 significant universities.
4. Applying to NO LESS than 3 Backup schools such as state universities and such.
5. Looking at any and all other backup options to meet your goals.
Remember: Going to a military academy is NOT A GOAL. It's a means of helping you ACHIEVE your goals. But the academy is not the only means to help you. Figure out what your goal(s) is/are, and then look at all the options that can help you accomplish that/those goal(s).
I'm not trying to discourage you. But if you look through some of the current threads about WHO is receiving appointments; you'll find by June that there will be some upset and disappointed individuals who don't understand why they didn't get an appointment when their gpa/act/sat is higher than someone else who DID receive an appointment. So, if you want encouragement, then I encourage you to talk to your ALO. Contact your senators and representative's staff and look at who from your state and district received appointments. Ask your ALO to look at your stats and give you an honest assessment of how you compare to those in past cycles. (That doesn't mean you might not be competing against a "#1" type of applicant this year. The type that has it ALL. Because the "WHOLE PACKAGE" is what the academy cares about. You might be competing this year against the 4.0gpa unweighted, who took ALL AP classes or the 4 year IB program. Who is ranked #1 in their class. Who is also the class president. Who is also the captain of 2 varsity sports. Who also has 300+ hours of volunteer time. Who also went to boy's state. Who also works part time. etc......
On the other hand, your resume and application could very well be the BEST of those applying for a nomination in your district. The only encouragement is to say: "Do the very best you can do." Don't think that if you do certain things, you win a nomination or appointment. If you have a 3.86, then strive for as close to a 4.0 that you can get. If you have a 32 composite ACT score, try AGAIN and aim for a 36. If you have 300 hours of volunteer time, go for 500. In other words, whatever you are doing now, I encourage you to do BETTER. That's the same advice I give to everyone. Only you know when you've done your best, and there is no room left for improvement.
So again; please don't read this or my prior post as any form of discouragement. It isn't. But I can't honestly answer a question such as "What are my chances" when I don't know who you are competing with. If you click on the link in my signature block, that is the new Air Force Academy Brochure. If you look at the AVERAGE scores for current cadets; averaged; you'll find that your scores are right there with all of them. In other words, SOME are lower, and SOME are higher. What matters however, is what are the scores and accomplishments of those you are competing against in your district; in your state; on the presidential nomination list; (I believe I read in another thread that you are a brat; so you are eligible to apply for a presidential nomination if your military parent is either retired or STILL active duty with 8 or more years; or guard/reserve with a certain amount of points.
best of luck to you. mike....