Will edit out enough to protect privacy, but this note was written to my son by an Uncle a few years ago. Uncle was medically DQ'd at his dream, USMA, and then took another path and became an astronaut rated fighter and high flyer pilot, turning down all the Ivy's. Great advice to my son, and all Academy Candidates.
There isn't a 'right' answer. Follow your passion.
XXX,
Been chatting with your Dad about the decisions you are facing at the moment
This problem/challenge and process resurrects in my mind the lines of a poem I may have sent you a while back, that I have used for guidance for my entire adult life (your grandmother, XXX, gave it to me when I was 19 years old...right about where you are now)... "To Find Myself" and the lines ran,
"When you look back down the trail in nostalgic wonder, remembering the accumulated hours and the far places and the almost forgotten ships you've flown--
when you recall the decisions, some right and some fearfully wrong--when you relive the accented moments of exhilaration and breath catching awe or the mingled ones of hope and despair--when word for word there comes to mind accompanied by the dull chatter of long-silent guns
some muttered snatch of prayer--
then you must ask yourself as have I--
what did I seek that I had to find in the sky?"
You aren’t taking about the sky I know, but the challenges and rewards are on the same plain. To mix metaphors and poems—you are at one of those places where the "roads diverge in the yellow wood."
Listening to your Dad, you've already made a tough one— probably not to stay in your comfort zone as XXX--where you know you are good and can stay on top, but more likely to step over the edge into the lesser known...and a very competitive-- abyss where you don't know how you will fare.
Probably a good time to ask yourself what you want to look back on when the time comes. If the path you want to follow is into Special ops, via SF/SCUBA/etc., and all the other training and challenges that entails, what is the path, and how will you get there. That'll give you an answer in the short term.
You seem interested in a path that very, very few succeed at--many of them good, even great, guys and gals, but for a thousand reasons-injury, timing, whatever--they never make it. Those people may not have succeeded at that goal, but they aren't failures. I'm sure you've heard Teddy Roosevelt's comments about the man in the arena many times...about "those cold and timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat. . ."
So if you see the path you want to follow--reach for it. No guarantees and the odds are tough, (to understate it!). That path may or may not work out, but it doesn't mean the doors are closed and you are a failure. No way!
Remember, I always wanted to go to West Point, that was my dream--and it never happened. Of all weird things, physically disqualified a couple of weeks before entering--and I would have been the youngest cadet in my class.
I “failed" at other things I dreamed of too-- never flew with the Thunderbirds, never became an Ace, and on and on. But, as they say, one door closes, another opens, and that is really true.
I think that XXX would second me when I say it isn't always the top scorer in PT, academics, whatever, who ends up the most respected officer, (and in my feeling, respect is the key to leading, not the shiniest accolades and blue ribbons for the 100 yard dash). And applies to your life whether you make a career of the military or not. And respect is won by those who never quit regardless of how many times they fall short of their goals. It is won by those who, as TR said, "fail while daring greatly."
I know you are a busy guy, so I'll stop with that point. If your heart tells you to step over the abyss into an unknown environment-- do it. No guarantees of selection, even fewer guarantees of success. But you will learn a lot about yourself. I found throughout my life, that almost every lesson, obvious or seemingly useless, success or failure, was another tool in my kit that paid dividends some years down the road. Nothing was wasted--even those failures along the way. Put another way, you learn as much about leadership from bad leaders as good ones. The bad ones teach you what NOT to do when your turn comes.
Good luck!