Something they also need to look at is the rate of washing out in UPT. For example, it USAF has a 25% wash out rate, and gives only 25% to fighters, from a pool of 100, about 20 will get fighters. Now if USN has a washout rate of 33% and 30% get fighters the chances are the exact same of @20 out of 100.
I'm reminded of when I was in NROTC, we had a guy who was die hard F-14 wannabie. His father worked at Pt Mugu so he was even able to get simulator time there. He graduated near the top of his class in ROTC, got to Pensacola, and got the NAMI whammy (eyesight not 20/20). Didn't slow him down a lick...ended up becoming an F-14 back seater. Unfortunately, the Tomcats were decommissioned and he transistioned to EA-6B.
But!...he was able to cross train and got designated a Naval Aviator. Eventually he ended up the CO of a Test/Eval squadron and got loads of flight time on different platforms.
But back to the point...yes, both Navy and AF fly fighters. The airmanship is pretty much the same (well, except for the controlled crash at the end), though there is some differences in procedures. As was said earlier, though, outside circumstances may affect your aircraft slot. When I was at VT-10 (basic NFO), jet slots were available for any one who wanted, but patrol was highly selective.
So my advice: don't choose the program based on the aircraft, but on the service itself. After that, just do the best you can! Good luck.
I think I will either try AFROTC and aim for ENJJPT, or either go the Air National Guard way.
Bullet will tell you that the AF is purchasing @1000 more F35s than the Navy.
If I am reading your post correctly you are yet in college, so let's assume you will be the class of 2020. On a great day you wouldn't wing until 2021. The AF intends to drop their 1st batch of F35s out of UPT in 2017. By the time you come along 35s will be dropping at a very steady rate.
~ Hill AFB goes operational within the next year. Luke school house just passed their 1000 training sortie.
Secondly,yes they typically xtrain pilots first, but now also remember that in the AF to make rank, pilots need to step out of the cockpit. The young 03 that gets to xtrain in 2018 (assume after their first tour) . arrives at their 1st 35 op tour 2019. By the time that tour is over....right about the time you would wing out of UPT the AF could be looking at him going to in residence school as an O4 or his original pilot commitment being up and leaving to go to the Airlines. Either way they need to refill that position to maintain C status.
~ Look at Stealths DS, he is a prime example. He winged in 2013 with a 16. He can walk in 2021 even if he gets a 35 in 2016 or 17.
~~ When Bullet converted into the Strike Eagle there were no Lt. arriving at Elmendorf. By the time we left 3 years later they were aariving at a steady base and it was very rare to see anyone coming in from the xtraining path.
As far as ANG works, the system is different. It is more like a job interview. They look to see if you are a fit for their unit. They might not have any openings when you want to apply. What will you do if you have to wait for years? Will you be able to afford to fly around the country for the interview at each fighter unit?
Right now as Navyhoops stated, your concern should be more about clearing the first hurdles. That would be for AFROTC SFT. Selection rates have varied from 90% to 60% to 83% over the past 3 years. No SFT = no commissioning. Than it is the rated board. This year they picked up@400 for pilot. I don't know how many NROTC picked up for their rated board.
Have plan B in place of what if? What if the Navy says we need you to be a submariner even if you ask to go rated? There is a poster here that this happened to her DS this year. What if the AF says your rated board scores placed you into the RPA pile? Which branch would be more desirable to you if you were psychic and knew that there would be no fighters? If you immediately say SWO than go Navy. Don't worry about the chances.
I also agree with Navyhoops regarding the medical aspect. Just because you pass the DoDMERB exam does not mean you will pass the FAA FC1 physical. They could waive you for AD, but not for rated, thus you would still serve. Which branch do you want than?