Reading this thread brings back memories. The Air Force (military in general) can't seem to get the manning under control, ever! There's a solution and it's simple. I won't get into it and every pilot/aviator knows it but due to egos and politics at top, sadly it'll just be another eternal vicious cycle. Most pilots see the light and separate to the airlines and/or ANG/AFRes to finish out their 20. Anyone remember the the early 90s, when they banked half the SUPT classes? Worse yet, many of the pilot candidates were "recategorized", meaning they were delayed into SUPT for a few years. Even ENJJPT grads got banked, not just into fighters but into heavies as well because there were only a handful of fighter assignments in the drop. And the worst I've seen were "recategorized" folks who finally got their wings only to find out that there were not enough cockpits to go around. The Air Force (Gen McPeak), in its infinite wisdom, came up with a plan to put these winged pilots into a cockpit of a KC-135 (just a warm body without a role) just so that they do not have to sit behind a desk for the second time. Granted that these folks were bottom of their class, it was still a difficult pill to swallow. The double whammy would have been if you were sent to Grand Forks!
Most if not all of these "recategorized" winged pilots were already an O-3, just to boot! The last time that this sort of thing happened was after the Vietnam war. Also, how about between '96-'00, the Air Force was short of fighter pilots and the cross flow program was introduced. Basically, anyone who've gone through the T-38 track was eligible to apply, though only a handful of the applicants were chosen. Lastly, how about post 9/11? The Air Force was once again short of pilots and the Stop-Loss was in effect. In fact, they were so under manned in certain AFSCs, including pilots, even those who were passed over SEVERAL times to O-4 were able to continue onto 20/retirement as a O-3. I remember several of them took the 20 year bonus and eventually left active duty for greener pastures without having to pay a single dime back! Many major airlines (mostly legacy carriers) were furloughing pilots left and right. Many of them returned to active duty and finished out their 20, and those who were fortunate enough to "reserve/guard bum" made ends meet just fine until the airlines recalled them. These were indeed some of the craziest times.
Recently, I had a cockpit jump seater who was a commuter pilot and she told me a pretty incredible story. She graduated from the academy, went to AFIT and received her masters, then got her wings and flew C-17s for 3 years. She had separated from active duty through the VSP and the Air Force paid her $100k and waived her commitment! It's the pendulum that never stops swinging. For those of us who have gone through this cycle, it was definitely a wild roller coaster ride. Lesson learned: Never ever burn your bridge or step on the wrong toes!
To the OP, my guess would be that there will be more pilot slots opening up, not because the Air Force is beefing up its force but because of attrition. I'm not in the loop anymore so the people in the know will have a better answer for you. As I've said in other posts, everything is timing. When I was going through pilot training, the military was overmanned with pilots. More than a 1/3 of my class washed out and many for no good reason; they were just looking to kick folks out; simple as that. Fast forward a decade..... when I was a SUPT IP, we were directed by the OG to "pump these kids through", wink wink. It took an act of God to wash anyone out. The dual track also reduced the washout rate as some are not fit to fly a high performance single seat jet in the
allotted time and money set forth by the Air Force, if that makes any sense. In other words, anyone can be trained to be a fighter pilot and/or a single seat high performance jet pilot, if given enough training. They may never be stellar pilots but they can be proficient enough; how about that? I've seen it and it's definitely possible. Just look at some of the foreign students who wash back a few classes and eventually get winged and get checked out in the F-xx. Their government hands out money to our military like candy and we pump them trough. They may never be Chuck Yeager but they will be "safe" pilots... well most of them.
Unfortunately (or fortunately for the tax payers), the Air Force allots a certain $ amount per student. If the Air Force deems that the pilot trainee is unable to be proficient in the given time ($$$ really), then they will cut their losses, you dig? After all, everything is about the $, even in the military. Just remember this: timing is everything and we are just a small piece in this gigantic puzzle.