This is how the Class of 2016 broke out:
http://www.navytimes.com/story/mili...-drafted-navy-marine-corps-branches/76056832/
There may have been onesy-twosy changes by Comm Week. Things happen. A few years ago, we had a USNA sponsor son who was dead set on aviation, majored in aero, wanted astronaut long-term via jets and TPS (ambitious man!), was in top ten class rank, got aviation, and in his final pre-comm physical, was found to have a condition requiring medication that DQ'ed him from Navy air. He had to choose another community.
It's roughly the same each year. Some mids are allowed to go in communities not usually available because of warfare NPQ issues that popped up their last two years.
Some arrive at USNA knowing what they want and strive toward that the entire 4 years. Some come in wanting one thing, and through briefings, summer training and exposure to officers in other warfare specialties, surprise themselves and choose another path. It's all about what feels right, not the prestige of something, IMPO. All have a role to play, though amongst the "family," you will hear the inter-community trash talk. Mids choose warfare specialties for a variety of different reasons. The important thing is that it is a warfare community a mid is excited about and is ready to work in for at least 5 years.
Yes, it's harder to get into some warfare specialties, because of limited slots, difficult screeners, physical standards (eyesight, etc.). The competition is against the others in the class who want those slots. Most get what they want. Sometimes a mid gets the next lower choice on their ranked list. That's part of the deal.