For him to x-commission the Army would have to let him go too. It is both sides of the fence that has to agree for the change.
I also think that this is really a cyclical thing due to the airline shortage. Sooner or later the airlines are going to slow down in their hiring process. If you delve into the topic from the airline perspective you can understand what has caused this issue. The FAA has a mandatory sit down for pilots. I believe currently it is 62 yr old. The mid to late 90s was the last time the airlines were hiring at a fast pace. After 9/11 the industry took a huge hit and really were not hiring a lot anymore compared to pre-9/11.
We had many friends that were furloughed because of their line number. (Last in First Out).
~ One of good friends left at the 10 yr marker for the AF, and started off flying with United (777) to Hawaii. He made it the furthest from being furloughed (@5 yrs). However, each time United furloughed people he kept getting down graded in the aircraft. In the end he was a right seater flying TED (United's puddle jumpers) before they hit his number. He was called back from furlough about 2 yrs ago, but did not return because now he was back in the AF and too close to give up his retirement benefits if he bolted again.
Airlines get a bulk of their pilots that are between 34-42. 34 if they leave at that 1st ability to jump.42 if they stay until they retire. Do the math. 20 yrs later and those guys are retiring at a very fast clip, plus will be for about the next 5-7 years. However, sooner or later that industry will balance out and that will impact the shortage for the AF. In turn, if the pilots are finding it harder to get hired on by the airlines, than that bonus is enticing, especially when they start saying:
~ Well, it is only 2-3 more tours, and airlines are renown for paying very little in the 1st 5 yrs. Thus, they can bank the bonus so when they leave the AF at 20, they will not take a financial hit, they can maintain the same living std.
~~ Our friends that left at 20, and even with their retirement pay, they were taking about a 30K hit for the 1st 5 yrs. Granted after 5 yrs when you move over to the right seat, your pay increases significantly, and many times that is why they will leave at a younger age, because by the time they move over they are making much more money than if they stayed in until 20 and took the retirement pay.
Now with all of that said, as it has been stated already this is more about retention than anything else. The AF can easily fill those slots for UPT. It is filling those IP slots due to retention. This than causes a problem at UPT. If there are not enough IPs they can't keep the UPT pipeline going at 110%.
~ As also stated prior they are already running at 110%. Sims are running 24 hrs a day 6 1/2 days a week. There are not enough T1, 6 or 38s to push more through the pipeline. There are enough daylight hours in the day even if they obtained more T1/6/38 planes and IPs to get them through faster. Logistically that is just 1 of the problems. If you pull from the Op world to the IP world, you still need the school house IPs. Thus, you can't just fill up the UPT bases with more IPs. You need to fill up the schoolhouse at the same time. In both cases, you need more airframes....money they can't afford to spend.
~~ The morale problem is also going to be impacted. Trust me...if you are flying the 16 out of Shaw or Hill, you are not going too be jumping for joy if they drop orders for you to be an IP at Del Rio aka Hell Rio. So what do you do? You say fine...I am 7 day opting and now I am going non-vol. That means as soon as that commitment (i.e. whatever you still owe them) is up you are out. Iows, if they owe 16 months, and the tour is suppose to be 36 months, you are gone in 16 months, and when you add in leave, it could be as little as 13 months. All they did by forcing that IP position was created more poor morale where pilots watching this occur will also say...nope I am out of here if you don't play nice with me.
Do I think that they are going to increase UPT slots dramatically? No. They are running at 110% now. Maybe they will drop more fighters, but they need to keep that heavy balance too. You can't do air refueling if you don't have a KC pilot. You can't get those maintenance parts to the sandbox without a C airframe. The C airframes also typically carry the support personnel to the sandbox. Some also give rides to the Army (jumpers).
I just don't think it really is going to impact anyone at USAFA currently, except maybe they may change the commitment time for pilots hitting UPT. During the years that Bullet was in the AF, the commitment went from 7 to 8 to 9 over the course of 20 years. They can now jump it to 11. If they have to wait 6-9 months to start which is common right now, than add in that 1 yr at UPT. You are talking about them getting out at 35 or 13 yrs in.
They also have another tool in the shed, which they rarely ever want to use because it creates horrible morale. Stop Loss. They have used it before. I.E. start of Gulf 1 and 2. Stop Loss is when they say, yep we know you can walk since your commitment is over, but because your AFSC is so critically manned for Combat status, we will not let you go right now. It is very rare for them to do this, it is really their scorched earth option.