A goal of 20, and my concerns about reaching it

[Gravity]

I'm a current enlisted sitting with just about 2 years of service when I enter USAFA this fall. I know that it is sort of dumb to plan so far in advance, but I am building a general desired path of my career as my goal is to put in 20 years or more TIS after I attend USAFA. I have researched about the "up-or-out" promotion system on the O-side, and I would be lying if I didn't say it worries me, as it is one of those things that I can't control that could compromise my plan for 20. For example, if say there was a massive push to cut defense spending in the next 20 years, that could lead to way lower promotion rates than exist currently and could kill my plan to hit 20 or more.

So, with that being said, I am thinking about ways to get past this if I am faced with a failure to promote in my career, and I am on here to ask if you all believe them to be reasonable.

I know one possible recourse is signing on with an AGR position (but I heard this is competitive), or joining a ANG/Reserves unit that has opportunities for deployment. Let's say for example, I get separated when promoting for LtCol, at around 16 years of service. Could I just do 8 deployments, and then have the active duty time necessary to retire under an active duty retirement? Or would I still have to wait to 60 to retire under the ANG/Reserves retirement system? Last resort, is it possible for me to enlist in any branch that will take me and finish up the final 4 years of my 20 in the last hypothetical scenario, or even go warrant in say the Army if I fail to promote?

Also, at least currently in the Air Force, what are the rough TIS/TIG that you would go up for promotion for the promotion grades of O-3 to O-5? It's not really clear when searching online. Thank you in advance if you are able to provide some or all of this info!

 

[flieger83]

OH, where to begin?

Okay, first...stop overthinking. Are you even part of the E4 mafia yet? You have four years as a cadet to be concerned about...THEN start to think about the "O" side. What career field; is it limited in scope (read officer positions)? Are you limited in scope (will you do PME early, advanced education, volunteer for the jobs nobody wants?) How has the service morphed since you went to USAFA?

Now let's look at this statement: "one possible recourse is signing on with an AGR position (but I heard this is competitive)" Uh, yeah, they are. And they're almost exclusively offered to in-house members that have shown the unit leadership that they are the future. Now let's move to this statement: "Let's say for example, I get separated when promoting for LtCol, at around 16 years of service. Could I just do 8 deployments, and then have the active duty time necessary to retire under an active duty retirement?" Several things here...first, are you implying you'd already have 16 years of EAD? If so, why on earth would you separate in you've been selected for O-5? And if you are NOT implying that you'd have 16 years of EAD, but just 16 years of EAD/AFRC/ANG service, as a traditional, then NO, 8 deployments won't do it. Also, you don't seem to realize how ANG/AFRC "deployments" work.

AFRC/ANG members...the majority are "traditionals." They are what are euphemistically referred to as "weekend warriors." Aside from the occasional duty they might pick up during the week, they do their service on weekends at UTA's (unit training activities) and during their two-week activation (typically in the summer). They have other jobs during the week and military duty/deployments can cause major headaches so most will avoid them, if they can. Deployments themselves...AFRC/ANG units receive their deployment "schedule" each year. I can only accurately speak to a flying wing as that's what I did. We would receive the requirements for "X" numbers of planes and personnel for a FY. We'd fill that from the entire wing. That meant most folks didn't go. And those deployments...ranged from 90 days to 140 days, with the majority never exceeding 120 days. There's a reason for that.

ANG/AFRC is NOT designed to help you reach an active duty retirement. In fact, they will actively work to ensure you do NOT reach Title 10 status. My wing had several aircrew members that, over the years and with their previous EAD time, were approaching 18 years of Title 10 active duty service. When OIF/OEF kicked off, those members were called in and asked to sign a waiver of their rights under Title 10 in order to be called to active duty to deploy. They all refused. Why?

Because when you hit 18 years and ONE SECOND of active duty time, you fall into Title 10's "Sanctuary" law. That law requires that any member reaching 18 years of active duty time must be afforded the opportunity to complete 20 years of active duty time. In other words, had they deployed and exceeded their 18-year point, they had a guaranteed two more years to go and were ensured an active duty retirement as opposed to a reserve/guard retirement. Trust me, the money difference and the timing of your receiving it is huge!! Case in point...this happens and you retire an "Active Duty" O-5 with 20 years...you receive immediate retirement benefits to include a pension in the $65K range (actually, it's probably higher, I'm just doing it quickly in my head). So...that's from age, what, 44? And it's for life. The AFRC/ANG O-5 traditional that retires the day the active duty person does...will wait another 15-16 years (you don't get it until you reach 60) before they receive any retirement pay/medical. And that retirement pay? It'll be in the @$40K range.
Can you volunteer for more deployments? Sure. Will you get them? It depends on the OPS TEMPO. But your AD time will be tracked. As for promotion windows for O-4, O-5...think, raw-ball park...10-11 year point for O-4, and then 14-15 year point for O-5. If you're a FAST BURNER...you may be selected and pin on O-6 in 18 (active duty; in the AFRC/ANG it's 20-24).

And this is just my touching the TIP of the iceberg.

You have WAY more important things to look at right now: out process from EAD to the USAFA...crush BCT, get into your squadron, destroy the Dean...use the skills you've developed so far in the AF to help lead your classmates. The rest will come, in time.

Steve
USAFA ALO
USAFA '83

 

[Gravity]

@flieger83 Thanks for the info. My primary concern is failing to promote to O-5 I guess somewhere around 16 years TIS, and then being separated the year after, before that 18 year “sanctuary” law kicks in. I want to serve as an officer, but I also have to balance the value it’s providing to me, and considering I want to work in cyber a major value incentive is the pension, which if I fail to hit makes this path make less sense for a 20 year career. I could just “5 and dive” and get comparable or more value private sector, while also having done the service I wanted to do, and not have to deal with the military lifestyle, which while for me has many upsides it is clear it will likely be taxing on me and my future family - I’m willing to endure if the value is right. That’s why I’m making these deliberations so early.

Good to know ANG/Reserves wouldn’t work out. If I do it, I gotta do it right, no fail-safe. Sorry if some of my questions seemed stupid or uneducated. It’s hard to find the specific regulations on this stuff.

 

[OldRetSWO]

@flieger83 Thanks for the info. My primary concern is failing to promote to O-5 I guess somewhere around 16 years TIS, and then being separated the year after, before that 18 year “sanctuary” law kicks in. I want to serve as an officer, but I also have to balance the value it’s providing to me, and considering I want to work in cyber a major value incentive is the pension, which if I fail to hit makes this path make less sense for a 20 year career. I could just “5 and dive” and get comparable or more value private sector, while also having done the service I wanted to do, and not have to deal with the military lifestyle, which while for me has many upsides it is clear it will likely be taxing on me and my future family - I’m willing to endure if the value is right. That’s why I’m making these deliberations so early.

Good to know ANG/Reserves wouldn’t work out. If I do it, I gotta do it right, no fail-safe. Sorry if some of my questions seemed stupid or uneducated. It’s hard to find the specific regulations on this stuff.

NOTE: Some of us Reserve/Guard folks have it work out just fine. It allowed me to have a pretty stable family life while still allowing me to serve my country as well as have some awesome experiences over the years and to build a pretty decent civilian career with its own pension (s).

 

[flieger83]

NOTE: Some of us Reserve/Guard folks have it work out just fine. It allowed me to have a pretty stable family life while still allowing me to serve my country as well as have some awesome experiences over the years and to build a pretty decent civilian career with its own pension (s).

Me too!

 

[JohnMcLane]

I have a feeling that as illustrated by both your appointment and your forward thinking that you won't have to worry about it!

 

[Old Navy BGO]

Don't sweat it.... worry about the things you can control, and the first is getting through USAFA. Then do the very best you can do during each assignment. Always keep options open and try to avoid dead end or niche assignments.

Realistically, a career in the Air Force (or any branch of the Military) is probably more secure than a career in private industry. Sure there are ups and downs in budgets/manning, etc. but if you establish a record of performance, you will be fine,

As an aside, geopolitically, I don't forsee the world unscrewing itself in the next 20 years. We face growing threats around the globe , and unless certain countries implode (like USSR did in the late 1980's), there will be plenty to do for the next 20 years. Good luck !