Acceptance Rates Dropping?

[Blackbird]

My DD is in the class of 2015. After grades were posted, she found out her class rank, and it was out of 1050 cadets. Assuming everone came back from Christmas break, there are currently 1050 cadets in the class of 2015.

Same number scheduled to start the Class of 2016. Does being part of a smaller graduating class like 2015, 2016, and 2017 open up more opportunities or make the speciality selection process easier for them when they graduate?

 

[Christcorp]

Does anyone know if we enlisted folk are going to see a loss of slots? The website says there are 85 every year; I imagine that will be cut as well?

The 85 is the maximum number of slots. Honestly; I don't think I've EVER seen that many qualified prior enlisted. On average, there's in the neighborhood of around 50. To tell you the truth, I don't keep up on enlisted too much, because they don't show up on my radar. But every year when I've looked at the stats, I don't think I've ever seen it near the 85 number.

 

[dagger]

The 85 is the maximum number of slots. Honestly; I don't think I've EVER seen that many qualified prior enlisted. On average, there's in the neighborhood of around 50. To tell you the truth, I don't keep up on enlisted too much, because they don't show up on my radar. But every year when I've looked at the stats, I don't think I've ever seen it near the 85 number.

Well you just boosted my morale tenfold.

DODMerb qualified me, my commander wrote my Letter of Endorsement and it was processed months ago so I do have a nomination, and my SATs meet and/or exceed the minimums listed as guidelines for direct admission as per the LEAD handbook. Three other letters of recommendations I have from my Group Commander and others I suppose are icing.

Awesome. This is great, this is totally great. I appreciate you.

On the contrary, I'll probably be crying myself to sleep for the next six months if rejected (sarcasm!). Anyhow, I now have more important matters at hand, like getting BTZ and receiving my CCAF.

 

[Christcorp]

FYI. Unless you're an E1-E2 in your first year of the Air Force/Military, chances are that if you do receive an appointment, you'd go to the Prep-School prior to attending the academy. That's the "Normal" procedure, because most enlisted have been out of high school for 2 or more years.

You however are currently working on your CCAF degree. If you're actually attending college, and not just counting Tech-School for your credits, then they might allow you to go straight to the academy; (Assuming you are selected). They might figure that you're currently enrolled in college obtaining your CCAF degree, so you're already in the "College Mode". But if all your current college credits are from Tech-School, you'd probably go to the prep-school first. Either way, that would be fantastic.

According to the Prep School fact sheet, approximately 20% of the average 240 cadet candidates, are prior enlisted. So that would be about 45-50. Like I said, except for a couple (And you could fall into that category), most enlisted folks have been out of high school for 2 or more year and they need an academic recharge prior to going to the air force academy. But there are the exceptions for those who are actively and currently enrolled in college while working. But that's rare, because most enlisted in their first couple years don't have a lot of time to do that when they're trying to get their CDC's done, get their 5-level, etc... But there are definitely some fast burners out there. You could be one. Best of luck to you. I hope you get it. mike.....

 

[dagger]

Thanks for the post, but a few things:

I'm too old for prep school, I'm 21 and miss the prep school cut off by a few days. (My birthday is right before July 1.)

All my CDCs were completed about five month ago. I will receive my 5-level once I hit the 1 year time on station in March.

I only need two college classes and will receive my CCAF once I receive my five level (in March). Both will be CLEP'd, so I'm really close to getting it. I have about 85 credits from college as a civilian + military.

I've been in the USAF for over 18 months...

I don't know if the above information changes anything, but that's my current situation.

 

[Christcorp]

Obviously, the only option then is to go straight into the academy. The reason for not being 22 when you start prep school is because you can't pass your 23rd birthday when you enter the academy. Because you need to be no older than 27 when you graduate. But if you've got the endorsements and everything from your commanders, then they are saying they are OK with you going into the academy. So in your case, it's the "Academy or Bust". They do/have let some military enlisted straight into the academy. I hope you're one of them. Best of luck. Mike....

 

[Christcorp]

P.S. Just in case you don't get the academy slot, remember that there are other options for getting your degree and receiving a commission.

 

[dunninla]

My DD is in the class of 2015. After grades were posted, she found out her class rank, and it was out of 1050 cadets. Assuming everone came back from Christmas break, there are currently 1050 cadets in the class of 2015.

6% attrition between Accepted Offers and the end of 1st semester. That seems about right. I have read in a few places that attrition over the four years is approx. 15% - 18% currently.

 

[thealt]

I know that the 4400 cadets is a number that is written into law and requires a waiver to exceed this number. The 1000 commissioning number is one I see thrown around but have not seen it as a legal requirement. Is the 1000 max a legal requirement or just a historical benchmark?[/QUOTE

The number authorized by Congress currently is 4,000 not 4,400. Secretary of AF Michael Donley and Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz have directed USAFA to reduce the cadet population to 4,000 by 10/1/12. The 4,000 number has always been the number, but they were allowed to get that higher (4400+) previous prior years. The reason for all of this is that the AF found that the were 2,300 officers over-end strength at the end of FY2010. Without drastic measures taken, the cadet population would probably find their numbers around 4,200 by this 10/1/12 date. Which means that if the 4,000 number is a hard and fast number, there's going to be hell to pay. Gone are the days of 2nd and 3rd chances for screw ups.

 

[Packer]

I know that the 4400 cadets is a number that is written into law and requires a waiver to exceed this number. The 1000 commissioning number is one I see thrown around but have not seen it as a legal requirement. Is the 1000 max a legal requirement or just a historical benchmark?[/QUOTE

The number authorized by Congress currently is 4,000 not 4,400. Secretary of AF Michael Donley and Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz have directed USAFA to reduce the cadet population to 4,000 by 10/1/12. The 4,000 number has always been the number, but they were allowed to get that higher (4400+) previous prior years. The reason for all of this is that the AF found that the were 2,300 officers over-end strength at the end of FY2010. Without drastic measures taken, the cadet population would probably find their numbers around 4,200 by this 10/1/12 date. Which means that if the 4,000 number is a hard and fast number, there's going to be hell to pay. Gone are the days of 2nd and 3rd chances for screw ups.

You are correct, which means the target number of 1000 graduates that gets tossed around is also wrong. The number will be closer to 900 graduating each year.

The Air Force Academy Cadet Wing's end strength will decrease from approximately 4,500 cadets to 4,000 cadets by Oct. 1, 2012. The Academy will accomplish the reduction by reducing class size to 1,120 for the Class of 2015 and 1,050 for the Class of 2016. Beginning with the Class of 2017, the Academy will admit approximately 1,165 cadets in each class. In addition, normal attrition from the Academy will aid in bringing the cadet end strength to 4,000.

per Brig. Gen. Sharon Dunbar, the director of force management policy.

 

[shoots1994]

I hope I'm not making a fool of myself by asking this, but do the budget cuts apply ONLY to appointments? Or will they affect other aspects of USAFA as well, such as research funding, instructors, etc? The university in my city has had crazy budget cuts these past couple years, and I've heard a lot of students complaining about the quality of education going down because of them--will the same thing happen at USAFA?

 

[USAFA10s]

They are affecting us, but not in a huge way yet. I suppose the biggest change in our daily lives is that our dining hall will stop providing containers to take our food back to our rooms so we have to eat there...however other changes include a reduction in custodial staff (cadets will be doing more cleaning) and the combination of some summer programs, particularly changing the location of combat survival training.

 

[Christcorp]

The number authorized by Congress currently is 4,000 not 4,400. Secretary of AF Michael Donley and Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz have directed USAFA to reduce the cadet population to 4,000 by 10/1/12. The 4,000 number has always been the number, but they were allowed to get that higher (4400+) previous prior years. The reason for all of this is that the AF found that the were 2,300 officers over-end strength at the end of FY2010. Without drastic measures taken, the cadet population would probably find their numbers around 4,200 by this 10/1/12 date. Which means that if the 4,000 number is a hard and fast number, there's going to be hell to pay. Gone are the days of 2nd and 3rd chances for screw ups.

That's not quite correct. The law states:

TITLE 10 > Subtitle D > PART III > CHAPTER 903 > § 9342
§ 9342. Cadets: appointment; numbers, territorial distribution
(a) The authorized strength of Air Force Cadets of the Academy (determined for any year as of the day before the last day of the academic year) is 4,400 or such lower number as may be prescribed by the Secretary of the Air Force under subsection (j). Subject to that limitation, Air Force Cadets are selected as follows:

So while you're correct that the secretary can make the number lower, it's not true that the 4000 number has always been the number. Abd for what it's worth, the section for the army and navy are the exact same words except it doesn't say Air Force Academy or Secretary of the Air Force. It replaces the appropriate army/navy verbiage.

 

[Packer]

That's not quite correct. The law states:

Quote:
TITLE 10 > Subtitle D > PART III > CHAPTER 903 > § 9342
§ 9342. Cadets: appointment; numbers, territorial distribution
(a) The authorized strength of Air Force Cadets of the Academy (determined for any year as of the day before the last day of the academic year) is 4,400 or such lower number as may be prescribed by the Secretary of the Air Force under subsection (j). Subject to that limitation, Air Force Cadets are selected as follows:


So while you're correct that the secretary can make the number lower, it's not true that the 4000 number has always been the number. Abd for what it's worth, the section for the army and navy are the exact same words except it doesn't say Air Force Academy or Secretary of the Air Force. It replaces the appropriate army/navy verbiage.

Thanks for posting this. I thought the number was 4400 but when I searched for it I couldn't find it. Doesn't really matter though as the number is going to be 4000 for a while it looks like.

 

[thealt]

That's not quite correct. The law states:


So while you're correct that the secretary can make the number lower, it's not true that the 4000 number has always been the number. Abd for what it's worth, the section for the army and navy are the exact same words except it doesn't say Air Force Academy or Secretary of the Air Force. It replaces the appropriate army/navy verbiage.

Per the December 2011 edition of the Falcon Family News, the cadet wing population as of 30 November 2011 is 4,369. If the Class of 2012 (of 1,100)is out of the count as of May 2012 and the incoming Class of 2016 entering at 1,050. Assuming the usual atrrition of the remaining classes the cadet wing population after Acceptance Day will be somewhere around 4,200 +/-. My question is, if the order is to be down to 4,000 by 1 October 2012 how will they reduce 200 cadets to make the number?

 

[aglages]

Assuming the usual atrrition of the remaining classes the cadet wing population after Acceptance Day will be somewhere around 4,200 +/-.?

What attrition rate are you assuming per class year?

 

[thealt]

What attrition rate are you assuming per class year?

Aproximately 9-11% after the first year for an incoming class and another 5-10% over the remaining three years.

 

[aglages]

Aproximately 9-11% after the first year for an incoming class and another 5-10% over the remaining three years.

I don't necessarily disagree with those numbers but I think you need to allow for the incoming 2016 class to lose some cadets during BCT and then some more between when academics begin for them in August and Oct 1st. In addition the current 3 degrees have Commitment coming up in August and I believe that point is when a class year loses quite a few cadets. Not sure the percentage. While these considerations may not be enough to draw down the total enrollment at USAFA to 4000 by Oct 1st, it should be less than 4200.