Does this mean that the DoD has increased the Navy's budget and/or the Navy is currently at the correct manpower strength and doesn't need to reduce it's current number of officers/enlisted.....like the Army, AF and Marines?
AF introduces Total Force Commissioning Process
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NorwichDad
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The reductions of manpower are not based on "need" but based on the desires of those in power. The reasons told to us are based on the most pallitable way they would be accepted en masse. You see it is never about need but what fits their plan. It has always been that way. Reagan used a different approach (build-up) because he thought it would win the Cold War. It is not need but what they think.
Yes China is the new focus to get our minds off the Middle East.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303552104577439943137674490
Maybe I asked my questions the wrong way. Let me try again.
Where is the money coming from to enable the Navy to focus on China?
Has DoD (those in power) increased the Navy's budget?
Is it the desire of those in power to also reduce the manpower within the Navy...or are those in power only interested in reducing the size of the Army, AF and Marines?
The Navy was the one service that did not increase their manpower to the levels the Army, AF, and Marines did over the duration of the 2 Wars. The Navy is able to continue on within their current budget and absorb what cuts they do have better then the other services. Army, AF, and Marines have the largest glut of mid level personnel that they have to have the largest retention boards we are seeing now. The Navy is reducing, we just don't see the impact as much.
The new ships the Navy is getting now are the result of budgets and allocations given years ago. I would imagine if the budget situation continues as it is, and congress continues to look the other way in regard to the sequestration impacts, we may see cuts become more visible in the Navy down the line.
I agree, this adds to it all as well.
The new ships the Navy is getting now are the result of budgets and allocations given years ago. I would imagine if the budget situation continues as it is, and congress continues to look the other way in regard to the sequestration impacts, we may see cuts become more visible in the Navy down the line.
I agree, this adds to it all as well.
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Thank you....this makes sense.
ohconnor
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TFCP Information
Hey everyone,
I've seen a lot of confusing and potentially inaccurate information on this forum. I have a document that came straight from our detachment commander with more information on the upcoming boards. Please PM me and I'll send you the link if you would like to check it out (I would post the link here, but I rarely post on here and don't have linking privileges yet).
Also, just to clear up a few details from previous posts: Our class (the class of 2015) had roughly 2200 EAs allocated. After FT and post-EA cuts, we are currently down to around 1800-1850 cadets. The numbers that I have heard so far for the boards are cuts from somewhere between 400-600 cadets. Taking into consideration that only 36 of the 400 "voluntary separations" that were offered last year were actually taken, those numbers seem to match up pretty well.
It's a dark and scary Air Force to be in. No AFSC (besides 13N) is safe from these boards, and our class is going to feel the cuts that we honestly probably should have felt back in April 2013. I repeat: nobody is safe, and no, it doesn't always seem fair.
I wish my fellow 400s (and 700/800/900s) the best, and may we all remember that AFROTC is a 4-year interview. Do what you can to keep your numbers up, and try not to worry about the things that are out of your control.
We can push through this; we always do.
Hey everyone,
I've seen a lot of confusing and potentially inaccurate information on this forum. I have a document that came straight from our detachment commander with more information on the upcoming boards. Please PM me and I'll send you the link if you would like to check it out (I would post the link here, but I rarely post on here and don't have linking privileges yet).
Also, just to clear up a few details from previous posts: Our class (the class of 2015) had roughly 2200 EAs allocated. After FT and post-EA cuts, we are currently down to around 1800-1850 cadets. The numbers that I have heard so far for the boards are cuts from somewhere between 400-600 cadets. Taking into consideration that only 36 of the 400 "voluntary separations" that were offered last year were actually taken, those numbers seem to match up pretty well.
It's a dark and scary Air Force to be in. No AFSC (besides 13N) is safe from these boards, and our class is going to feel the cuts that we honestly probably should have felt back in April 2013. I repeat: nobody is safe, and no, it doesn't always seem fair.
I wish my fellow 400s (and 700/800/900s) the best, and may we all remember that AFROTC is a 4-year interview. Do what you can to keep your numbers up, and try not to worry about the things that are out of your control.
We can push through this; we always do.
vamom
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Isn't one huge difference in the "new" Air Force process and the current Army process that all Army ROTC cadets attend LDAC but not all AF Cadets are given an enrollment allocation for SFT? So it appears that USAF cadets have double the chance of not being offered an active duty commission....first with the EA process and second upon graduation. Am I correct? If so, I can see why students who are considering a career in the military would be very leary of Air Force ROTC as compared to Army.
Your correct, all AROTC cadets attend LDAC, or whatever they call it next year.
I agree this creates an added hurdle for AF Cadets, first EA, then AD.
vamom
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This was released today. What a year for cadets in or planning on a career in the Air Force, esp. via ROTC.
http://www.af.mil/News/ArticleDispl...ces-changes-to-headquarters-organization.aspx
http://www.af.mil/News/ArticleDispl...ces-changes-to-headquarters-organization.aspx
What will be interesting to see is if the number of scholarships being offered is going to decrease in the forseeable future. My hope is the respective services allow these cadets to seek internships over the summers so they can be prepared for the civilan workforce in the event they are not selected AD. I'm not sure how that is going to work for AROTC since LDAC is gone. I would not be a bit suprised if AROTC does what AFROTC did this year and offer to seperate prior to comissioning with no payback or service obligation. I truly feel for these kids.
I doubt we will see this anytime soon in regard to AROTC. The Army Reserve and National Guard are still recruiting and in need, what could happen in the near future is AROTC will have a higher number of cadets sent to the Reserves/NG and fewer to Active Duty.
Internships will be harder for AROTC cadets given that they will now have summer training both the summer after their freshman year and the summer after their junior year. The summer after their sophomore year is traditionally when cadets would go to schools such as Airborne, Air Assault, or others. Not every cadets goes to this type of training and a cadet can opt not to go if they wish to do an internship that summer. Point is there will only be one summer cadets can do a full summer internship if they desire one.
I agree, with all the new changes it will be an interesting 4 years.
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I'm wondering - if large numbers of those being cut from the Army decide to go into the reserves that might seem to impact the annual ROTC numbers. But it's just wondering... I see nothing... I know nothing.
I think he was referring to those like the 1100 Active Duty CPT's that were just given their pink slips. There may be some that look to the Reserves/NG to retain their commission. Given that they would be going in as O-3's, I don't think it will have an impact on new 2LT's accessing to the Reserves/NG.
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I think I didn't communicate very well or you misunderstood my point. Tens of thousands are about to be cut from the active Army. It's my understanding that they may then go into the Reserves. If the Reserves get a massive influx from this effort then using the Guard and Reserve as a "safety valve" for new AROTC 2 LTs "overflow" may not have as much flexibility as at present. As I said I was just wondering if this might be the case. And I certainly don't mean to denigrate anyone who goes into the Reserves. It's certainly an honorable choice.
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You obviously thought about it more deeply than I, but won't current LTs also be facing the same potential cutbacks as the Captains we keep talking about face?
Of those thousands being cut the bulk will be enlisted, their transition to the reserves/NG won't have an impact on the 2LT's. The officers being cut are O-3 and above, these that transition to Reserves/NG will be filling those spots, there will still be a need for new 2LT's. One thing that could very well happen is that it will become harder for these junior officers to make O-3 and O-4 since many have made the transition already and they could soon be overmanned at the junior level.
Lot's to consider for these new officers. Gives a whole new meaning to Managing your career.
Hopefully they will be able to manage that manpower at the ROTC level by the number of contracts they offer.
Of course that assumes a lot of logic being used.....I think that's assuming a lot.
Pima
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Feb/Mar 300 year rated board results are released. If not selected you will be rolled to non rated board which releases their results Oct. of 400 yr. Base assignments come down Nov. EADs come down Feb/Mar.
I don't know if rated will be safe. My guess would be yes because MPC is very aware of two things.
1. Airlines announced pilot shortages in the next five years due to the fact that their pilots will be retiring.
~ AF knows this has only recently upped their pilot bonuses to try to reduce the amount that will be leaving when their commitment is done from winging.
~ Where do they get the majority of their pilots? The military.
2. The 35 will be coming on line.
Now the downside.
1. The new system for SFT selection made cadets opt rated or non-rated, thus the pool may be so large the selection rate could be much lower than in previous years.
~ If 1800 were selected for SFT, and let's say 1100 of them opted rated, chances are only about 75% will be selected. Obviously if that number is even higher the rate is going to be lower.
~~~~ In years past rated selection board was @90-95%
2. You will go for your FAA FC1 physical at Wright Pat your rising 400 year. Waivers are now becoming very rare. This physical is a 3 day TDY. Everything from eyes to ears to EKGs will be done.
~~~~ If you don't get a waiver than you will go to the non-rated board.
3. The statistical chance of winging out of UPT is @75%. BUT the rate is even lower when you add in IFS. @20% bust IFS. Thus, if you do the math the real winging percentage is closer to 60%.
~~~~ Bust either of these and you will go to an FEB, now this is where it becomes iffy if they will keep you or cut you loose. The likelihood of being cut loose will increase if they are still over their numbers.
~~~~~~ Honestly, the likelihood of being cut IMPO would be very high because if they are at 100% for non-rated at commissioning, and you bust out of UPT 18 months after commissioning than they will still be at 100% for your year group.
Now for the reserve/guard option. My assumption that they do the same thing as AD. There is a specific ratio of Field to Company. They can only bring in so many before those year groups become too big compared to the higher ranks.
~ That safety valve will have to be shut off at some point too.
This occurred back in 93/94.
I don't know if rated will be safe. My guess would be yes because MPC is very aware of two things.
1. Airlines announced pilot shortages in the next five years due to the fact that their pilots will be retiring.
~ AF knows this has only recently upped their pilot bonuses to try to reduce the amount that will be leaving when their commitment is done from winging.
~ Where do they get the majority of their pilots? The military.
2. The 35 will be coming on line.
Now the downside.
1. The new system for SFT selection made cadets opt rated or non-rated, thus the pool may be so large the selection rate could be much lower than in previous years.
~ If 1800 were selected for SFT, and let's say 1100 of them opted rated, chances are only about 75% will be selected. Obviously if that number is even higher the rate is going to be lower.
~~~~ In years past rated selection board was @90-95%
2. You will go for your FAA FC1 physical at Wright Pat your rising 400 year. Waivers are now becoming very rare. This physical is a 3 day TDY. Everything from eyes to ears to EKGs will be done.
~~~~ If you don't get a waiver than you will go to the non-rated board.
3. The statistical chance of winging out of UPT is @75%. BUT the rate is even lower when you add in IFS. @20% bust IFS. Thus, if you do the math the real winging percentage is closer to 60%.
~~~~ Bust either of these and you will go to an FEB, now this is where it becomes iffy if they will keep you or cut you loose. The likelihood of being cut loose will increase if they are still over their numbers.
~~~~~~ Honestly, the likelihood of being cut IMPO would be very high because if they are at 100% for non-rated at commissioning, and you bust out of UPT 18 months after commissioning than they will still be at 100% for your year group.
Now for the reserve/guard option. My assumption that they do the same thing as AD. There is a specific ratio of Field to Company. They can only bring in so many before those year groups become too big compared to the higher ranks.
~ That safety valve will have to be shut off at some point too.
This occurred back in 93/94.