AF ROTC Enrollment Allocation Results

I haven't heard anything of this nature at my det. Wow I hope it's not true.
 
Some dets may not announce it quite yet because lets' face it, there are 2 more FY's to get through regarding budgets and manpower needs.

The fact is if our economy could get back down to 6% they would need 15 to stay at 2200. Main reason why is when the economy is strong, retention rate is not high. When the economy is weak, retention rate is high.

I will add in one more thing for those cadets that want rated. Have you paid attention to the news lately?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/trave...-could-start-this-year-analysts-warn/1566088/
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203937004578079391643223634.html
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/...126_1_rest-rules-pilot-shortage-new-faa-rules
At the same time, thousands of commercial pilots hired during the go-go airline expansion of the 1980s are reaching the federal mandatory retirement age of 65. (It was raised from 60 in 2007.) Roughly 3,000 pilots have retired annually in recent years; that will jump to some 10,000 a year over the next decade.

Where do you think they get experienced pilots from? Hint: they wear uniforms too! The last big airline hiring push was 2000. If you read the articles, they must retire by 65. Do the math, they retire at 42 (20 yrs in), many of them currently are @55-56. UPT is a 2 yr process from the start to MQ. That puts your class on a good day 2018. Airlines will be replacing a lot by that yr. since many will already be in their 60's.

The AF and Navy knows that they only can keep them for so long. The airlines will be hiring away many of them as soon as they can cut the ties, i.e 10 yrs from winging and they know it. They are already planning for it. They experience it pre 9/11.

Now if you place the retention rate in a strong economy, airlines hiring, AND the final piece for the rated world...F35, you will see that it is rational to expect that it is probably not as dire as one may seem when you are a sophomore in college.

The 35 is a huge buy for the AF, and when they bring new airframes on line, they don't bring all of them on in one day, and get rid of what they are replacing(16) the next day. They do a slow conversion, and because of that they need more pilots. I.E. The 16 will still train new pilots, while they also train the new 35 pilots. 16's will slowly reduce by attrition, but it will take yrs.

Now when you place it all together you can see that the AF is already thinking about it, and what you may see as dire, is not so much. For non-rated, remember that the more rated they take the less they have for non-rated, hence there will be a manpower issue created there because they are pulling more into the rated world, and their commitment is much shorter...4 yrs ADAF, so the unemployment rate can see them leave in droves as soon as it drops. 6% and many will bolt, that can happen starting in 14, and that means the 2010 grads, just minted Captains, can leave.
 
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