AFROTC Pilot Slot Odds

Discussion in 'ROTC' started by Bird12, Aug 26, 2016.

  1. Bird12

    Bird12 Member

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    Hey folks, just want a little feedback here..

    I'll be up for an AFROTC pilot slot next semester and am wondering what ya'll think of my chances. Let me know please. I appreciate the input.

    FT Ranking: 8/19
    CC's Ranking: Middle 1/3
    PCSM: 66
    PFA: 98
    GPA: 3.84

    Thanks again!
     
  2. AlphaAlphaSigma

    AlphaAlphaSigma Member

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    Rankings are below average. PCSM is on par with previous years. PFA and GPA are very good. You don't need to be perfect in all aspects of the selection criteria. Excell in one part can make up your weaknesses. You're in a good run for pilot but if you desire nothing but pilot I suggest putting pilot as top desire and everything else as bottom desire. If you put everything on the same desire levels you're in the same run for all the rated positions.
     
  3. Zero

    Zero Member

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    Stats are good, rankings are the smallest portion, at least FT. And your middle at least. Get some flight hours if you can.
     
  4. Joekenny

    Joekenny Member

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    Your Stats Last Year Pilot Select Last Year Non-Select
    GPA: 3.84 GPA: 3.422 GPA: 3.182
    PFA: 98 PFA: 97.80 PFA: 95.10
    PCSM: 66 PCSM: 66.3 PCSM: 28.1


    Overall, I'd say you're on par with the select averages from last year. I'd speculate that the average pilot select has a FT/commander's ranking that teeters somewhere between top third and top of middle third. If you put "high interest" for any other rated position other than pilot, you're potentially decreasing your chances.
     
  5. Sled

    Sled Member

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    You'll be fine, get flight hours and that's all you can do.
     
  6. Zero

    Zero Member

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    Putting high in everything can change things but likely will not, it goes by how the board is held and in which order they are selected. Not your stats. Plenty put high all and still get pilot.
     
  7. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    OKAY, I have to ask current cadets if they have heard anything about the impact of OCS? Ac
    cording to USAF they are increasing OCS rated slots to 250 per year from @125-150. UPT bases are operating at 110%. So if they up the OCS side how will that impact ROTC cadets going rated? They can't add more students bc they are maxxed currently, so how will they do it?

    Secondly, when you place low on your list, don't you risk getting not picked up at all and your only option is to go to the supplemental board?

    I think it is important to address both of these aspects.

    Finally, the pilot world is short, but when we say that, it is short for experienced pilots not newbies. That whole 700 fighter pilots short is IMPO not impacting you bc you will not wing until 2020. Will not be operational until 2021. OTOH the RPA world is short and will be short for years to come.
    ~ Goes back to that list aspect when it comes to rating out Pilot CSO RPA and ABM

    What is the CoC portion now? Is it still the majority? If so, for the OP, that CoC ranking and their SFT ranking they can take a ding. I think their cgpa and PFA are strong, PCSM is avg., but I am with Alpha those two portions hurt you.

    Do you have any flight hours?

    I strongly suggest you read Raimius's blog regarding UPT. It his signature tag line (blue link). Getting selected is one thing, surviving 54 weeks out of UPT is a whole different world.
    ~ ROTC and college is a party life compared to UPT. It is 6 days a week flying/studying/sims 18 hrs a day. Please please read his link, It is not BS, it is real life.
     
  8. noketchup

    noketchup Member

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    FT rank seems fine. Det rank is kind of meh.

    Get some flight hours and you'll be fine.
     
  9. cyslas55

    cyslas55 Member

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    My stats were about the same as yours, the differences were my PCSM was 63, PFA 96.6, and GPA 2.96. Since you got FT out of the way, try to get some hours before December rolls around to get that PCSM 70+. It may be expensive but it's a worthy investment if flying is what you want your career to be.

    Zero has a point, I would put high for everything just in case you do not get pilot, at least you will get a rated slot if you're open to all the options. Again, that's IF you aren't picked up for pilot and how the board is determined.

    Best of luck!
     
  10. Zero

    Zero Member

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    Pima if you place low or zero on other jobs you DO risk not getting picked up. You should place how you actually view the jobs, if you put high let's say on both pilot and rpa. If the board meets and pilot is looked at first (it was in the past) then you get it or don't. They don't look at your file and go oh he put high here too let's not give him his spot.

    OP honestly don't worry about your rankings they are fine. It's better than bottom and people still pull pilot slots. You can't control it now so just ride it out. FT ranking is 5/15 even if you are bottom. Or it at least was in the past, easy to make up points. Additionally if you are in a DET that does not tell you your rank then it's all guessing anyway. Lots go oh I'm top 1/3 but maybe they were told that a year ago or just assume. My det didn't tell us and I never asked, honestly did not care. Do your best, that's all that matters.

    Lastly there are tons of pilots waiting. I'd assume ROTC will stay the same and ots is picking up the immediate need/slack.
     
  11. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    According to USAF, OTS will increase @125 more pilot slots....or doubling...125 FY16 to 250 FY17. That is huge when you are talking about UPT numbers. Hence, why I asked what you think is going to be the impact for ROTC when UPT is running at 110% now with that new ADAF increase for OTS..
    ~ Maybe the number will remain the same, but the UPT class date will now be 12 months instead of 9. Maybe they will offer less UPT slots.

    I don'r know, but I do disagree that OTS is picking up the slack since they are at 110% right now...iows there is no slack to pick up.

    Just curious.
     
  12. Zero

    Zero Member

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    There are more OTS here now than normal. Class sizes went from 19-20ish to nearly 30. Which is where the surplus was put. It seems the wait times are the same, at least for now. 30ish is the maximum they can hold right now. They are still working to find more ways to increase production but it's pretty tapped the way it is now.
     
  13. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    My DSs class was 28 in the T6, 21 moved onto T1/38 route, but they added 7 more (washbacks) so they were back to 28 again. To keep them on track for winging they actually had to break the class size into 2 groups. IE 1/2 the class did the formation portion while the 1/2 did the navigation portion. If I recall correctly the reason why was because the class size was so large that it impacted on how to schedule their xcountry flights and still stay on track for them to track T1/38 on time.
    ~ This was at Laughlin.

    I am curious of how this is all going to play out from a pilot shortage aspect. It is kind of like which came first the chicken or the egg? USAF needs more pilots because so many are leaving at a faster pace than they can replace them, but you can't train them if you don't have IPs. Can't fill the IP slots if you need them more to keep C status in the op world. Not enough IPs at UPT and than it impacts the size of the UPT class they can handle. Which now brings it back to why it is not as simple as one might think regarding the shortage. Upping the numbers may seem the logical answer, but upping the numbers for UPT has no real impact on their current needs since as an AFROTC cadet up for a rated board 2017 will not be operational for about 4 yrs. ( Commission 18. Start UPT 19. Wing 2020. Finish airframe schoolhouse, SERE, water survival, IFF 2021. MQ sometime in 2021).
    ~ Why is that important from where cadets are standing? Yes, the airlines are hiring at a very fast pace now, but eventually all of those positions will be filled and they will slow down the hiring. In turn pilots that are not taking the bonus will start taking it at a higher rate. Follow the domino effect and that means they can slow down the pipeline for UPT. The AF always has a 5 yr personnel plan going at any given time. Thus, with them knowing you will be stuck with them until 2029 on a good day, they may say that this yr group is safe and the pipeline will be fixed by the time you can leave and do not need as high of a number than in yrs past. Not saying that is going to be the case. Just saying that like AFROTC SFT selection rate from 1 yr to another it can change drastically.
     
  14. noketchup

    noketchup Member

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    I don't really think OTS boards this year will effect us that are commissioning in 2018. That said, I don't see a massive jump in pilot slots either.

    Also, they are adding cadets on a new two year program that is supposed to speed up time to commissioning.
     
  15. Sled

    Sled Member

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    Low=Not getting that particular job. In the past Med=Not getting the job but they took some RPA pilots that ranked medium. Source: Met one of the under 10 selected who ranked RPA as medium.
     
  16. Lanegriff24

    Lanegriff24 New Member

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    What are my chances
    GPA 3.2
    FT med
    Commanders Rank med
    PCSM 86 AFOQT (97) Flight hours 21
    PFA 100

    Im just trying to get a feel for where I stand and if anyone has hear of someone with stats like this either receive or not receive a slot.

    Thanks
     
  17. noketchup

    noketchup Member

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    Your PCSM cancels out lower rankings from Det. Your FT rank is kinda meh. The average fro ENJJPT selects was like the lower end of SP, so I would think the average FT rank for all other pilot slots would be somewhere in top or middle third.

    But yea, nice PCSM. Your good. That 20pts above average will help.
     
  18. colts825

    colts825 New Member

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    How do my chances look? I'm also planning on ENJJPT so any insight to that to would be helpful as well!
    FT Ranking: DG
    CC's Ranking: Top Third
    PCSM: 90
    PFA: 99.7
    GPA 3.4
     
  19. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    Unless something has changed ENJJPT board meets in the fall after USAFA drops their rated slots. ENJJPT is highly competitive since they only wing less than 200 annually compared to the 1000 that will wing between the remaining bases. Remember out of that 200 probably a quarter of them are from other countries.
    ~ I believe Stealth stated that the avg cadet that got ENJJPT out of USAFA was the top 10% of the class. So if AFROTC is the same number you are looking @50 nationally picked up.

    I would say you have a strong chance to get UPT and a high chance for ENJJPT, but it comes with a caveat...is that 3.4 tech or non-tech, because for non-tech that is just the avg cgpa. Additionally, it is going to come down to your CoC support too. Top third is different than number 1 aka CWC, CVWC, etc.

    Finally impo it might also be impacted by OCS since they are pumping up the numbers by 125 to 250 for UPT slots. Yes, the AF knows they are going to be 700 short, but the fact is the pipeline can't push anymore through, thus the question becomes if they are already maxxed out at UPT and they add 125 more are they going to reduce elsewhere or just have longer wait times to start UPT?
    ~ Not trying to take this off topic, because on topic means if they up by 125, and send 10% of them to ENJJPT, than that is @13 more slots this year compared to last year which can impact the chances out of AFROTC.

    As a wife of an F15E WSO and a Mom of a C130J pilot. I can honestly say that you just have to believe in fate. If you get ENJJPT great, but if you don't it doesn't mean you won't get a 22 or 35 out of XL.

    Obtw, my DS had a 93 PCSM, and almost identical stats as you. his PF was 97 or 98. His cgpa was 3.43...BUT and the big BUT he was non-tech. He also had close to 100 flight hours. Did not get picked up for ENJJPT. His UPT class at XL was huge...28 students, only 7 went T38 route. Now, who knows maybe if his year group wasn't so large he may have been picked up for ENJJPT, maybe not...hence...why I believe in fate. He was meant to be in the C130 world and if you ask him right now what airframe is the best/most important in the AF? He would say it is the 130J. He and his father argue about that quite often (jokingly) because if you don't know who my DH is, it is Bullet. Bullet works very closely on the 35....closely is an understatement.

    I say this all the time. If you have yet to read raimius's blog (his signature line) do so now. The first part is USAFA oriented, the latter part is UPT from an insiders view of what life is like as a student. It is true to the Nth degree regarding what happens on a daily basis.
    ~ For parents that are lurking this thread, let me say this please read his blog too. Any parent that has gone through UPT will tell you, that you only want a Sat. or Sun. phone call. Mid-week and your heart steels itself before you pick up the phone...is this a good or bad phone call...i.e got EQ on check ride or now being sent to an 88 ride...if you don't know what that means, than again read raimius's blog because you will understand what I am talking about.

    Good luck.
     
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2016
  20. Stealth_81

    Stealth_81 Super Moderator Moderator Founding Member

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    The Spring fighter VML has a lot of bills for AETC slots in UPT, IFF, and FTU. That may be a sign that they are ramping up production numbers in the training pipeline. Nothing definite, though.

    Stealth_81
     

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