Zero,
The problem right now is the pipeline.
There is a class of 14 poster here that just started UPT this month. He graduated in May, casual status in Jan. By the time he is at his 1st operational base, on a good day he will be in for 3 years +. My DS (2012) started his UPT at 11 mos. after graduation (went casual after 4 mos). Many in his class were also USAFA grads, so it wasn't just ROTC that went casual for almost a year.
They can't speed up the pipeline at any higher rate than it is running currently for several reasons.
1. At UPT it is not just about enough IPs, but also airframes. There just isn't enough of them to speed up the pipeline.
2. Many schoolhouses are the same. The sims are running 24 hrs a day 6 and 1/2 days a week. There were times by DS was taking a sim at 2 a.m. on a Saturday.
Thus, their only option is to slow down in the amount of the incoming flow of students. I believe they did this last year. If I recall last year they only selected 400 some odd for UPT from ROTC, add in USAFAs 500+ and 200 OCS. That is theoretically what they can pump through in one fiscal year.(300 for Columbus, Del Rio, Vance, and 180 at ENJJPT).
It really is a numbers game. I get they need more pilots and RPA pilots, but with the backlog they can turn to this one year group and say we are dropping fewer slots so the wait time shortens without doing any damage.
~ Seriously think about it. Class of 15 right now will probably not start IFT until 16s have commissioned and that is if they are lucky. Same will be true for 16s when 17s commission Handing out UPT to just USAFA and OCS for 17, no ROTC grads would mean @750, and now the pipeline is back on track, not 16-19 month wait for UPT.
Now would they do that impo? Heck, no! The morale would plummet for ROTC. However, if they placed a hard line and say if the cadet does not have at least a 50 on the PCSM they will not be considered it does the job for a morale perspective.
~ Cadets get it, and know that they will than be sent directly to the non-rated board.
Big Blue created this problem impo, the minute they turned and said cadets must "track" if they are going to go rated prior to SFT selection.
~ I get for them they believed from a manpower planning perspective they now had an eyeball how many would apply as a 300. However, the unintended result after SFT selection for 14 (58%) created the gaming system for SFT candidates that were on the fence and saw the 14 results may mean a much larger pool size than 14.
Hence, Sled could be correct for this year group. They could have had a higher % signing rated than 14, and trying to get the schoolhouses in order, they know right now that 50 is going to be the make or break.
Just my opinion, on how I see things from a different view/picture. It is not just about them knowing that they will have a shortage soon due to the commercial airlines hiring, but they have also know that the backlog is so bad, that for 17 they can take less. Worse case scenario if they see next year that the pipeline is moving faster now, they can pull from the alternate list or OCS selection board.
~ In 2012, our friend's DS applied OCS. He did not put CSO on his application. He got CSO because they told him the only UPT slots awarded were to prior E or candidates with flight hours. He had neither.
~~ There have been years where they cancelled 1 of the 2 rated OCS boards. OCS is like SFT selection, a way to control the spigot.
My opinion, and with 2.07 you can get a small starbucks coffee, but I think that looking at last years numbers for ROTC, and the backlog Sled's post might be a shack (on target)! We do not know the pool size for the 300 pool. We can't say 50 PCSM is wrong if 65% went to SFT (signed rated paperwork).
~ That would be over 1150 candidates vying for rated. If they drop UPT, CSO, and RPA because the backlog to even 60%, that would be 702. no alternates.
~~ I believe last year for UPT AFROTC it was @440. 800 and change for all 4, including alternates.
It is a mathematical equation for HQ. Yes, they know the shortage. Yes, they know that even with throwing 6 figure bonuses on top of flight pay their retention rate is way below 75%, but that doesn't change the fact that they can't push them throw faster, they have a backlog and are still dealing with sequestration...budget is still being cut.
Honestly, the only way to get back on track...shorter EAD and no casual time, HQ AFROTC would have to go 0% for 17. That is how bad it is.
~ DS's friend (12 grad) went UNT. He winged in 14. Medically he had some issues once operational. They decided he would go RPA. He had to wait as an ADAF officer 6 months to get an RPA school slot. Just saying that is how bad the backlog is all over.
~~ He was casual as an O2 CSO that had been re-assigned already, just spinning his wheels because because the school was backlogged.
