I don't know the answer, but my assumption is that it will not be pretty next year for the rated board selection. It has been announced that all OCS boards have been cancelled until sometime FY15.
~~~ I.E. that means the college kids that are graduating May 2015 would have been applying for OCS this summer to attend next year.
Boards for OCS are typically held twice a year in Jan and July. If they don't hold until next summer than that would be for 16 year group, your year group.
The upside is that if you look at the non-rated selection it was only 17%, which to me says they have placed into the equation that they will have more cadets applying for rated than slots, and that is why the non-rated selection was so low. They needed the room to slide those cadets into non-rated slots.
~~~~ I might have the math wrong, but the overall number was 1600 selected, typically they give out mid 800s rated slots for each year group. In years passed that would be about 40% +/- of those attending. For this year to maintain that number they would need to give out 55% +/-.
The anecdotal posts here appear to me that the amount requesting rated was more than 80%, or over, hence many will indeed go non-rated.
Everyone knows the AF is looking at a pilot shortage in the next decade, but the problem is getting them through the pipeline. AFA grads use to report for UPT within 60 days of commissioning, it was AFROTC that waited 6-9 months. That rule of thumb was tossed out the window a couple of years ago. It is common now for them to wait 6-9 months and AFROTC to wait 9-12 months.
As always it is going to be a numbers game, and your class is still in the year span that Big Blue needs to cut 8%, but using the numbers of 1600 selected it looks like they have taken the bite out of your year group.
