Applications for 2017 seem to be at about 16,000 currently, not sure whether that is enough info to say they are up or down from the last few years. Keep in mind that the first real thinning of the herd will be done by the MOC's in the next few weeks. They account for the largest portion of noms - about 5,000 out of a total of about 6,500 (check the class profiles for the past few years to confirm for yourself). Best wishes to all of you, but keep polishing your plans B, C, and D just in case.