Are the application/candidate numbers accurate?

Strongly suspect the MOC Nomination process accounts for a large number of those "incomplete" apps. In FL, candidates are restricted to one nomination per candidate. If a kid wants to apply to more than one SA he/she needs to select a separate MOC for each SA. As a result, the candidate may get a Congressman's nomination for USNA, but nothing from the Senators (cuz they're limited to one). Therefore, two SA apps are left "incomplete." Just sayin'.
 
1mom said:
A very interesting article. Thank you for sharing. D/S received Presidential nom and NJROTC nom . He is waiting for some news. We are in a super competitive northern VA area.
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Best wishes to your DS!!!

Question: Given the Presidential and NJROTC nominations, where your DS is from (Northern VA) is no longer even a factor. At this point, isn't your DS competing against other Presidential nominees and NJROTC nominees???

My point is that with your DS's nominations, he avoids competing against other Northern VA candidates. Therefore, having a Presidential or NJROTC nomination from a competitive district like Northern VA is a huge advantage, correct???
 
Interesting article but we need to read it with some perspective. I have been involved with other universities and truthfully all universities use statistics to their benefit. It is called marketing.

We know (by having gone or going through the process) that it is very hard to get in and determination is a key factor. I wish all kids were as motivated to serve our country as our kids. If that were true, the academies would have even higher avg sat scores and an even lower acceptance rate (however you calc it).

But, it takes a special person to desire an academy education and training. I am glad the academy puts them through a tough process to get in as we all benefit by having such dedication in our armed forces serving our country!

Go Navy!
 
F15DOC said:
I am going to rejuvenate this thread, mostly because I think this is an interesting topic.
I just read an old Washington Post article (2011) about data obtained from USNA through a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request. And it pretty much confirms what I initially believed to be true. If you get yourself triple qualified (which isn't really that hard) then you may have as much as a 50% chance of getting an Appointment Offer. You still need that nom, if you are blessed to be in a state where the noms are not impossibly hard, then you have a really really great shot at it.
Here is the anti-military biased article, but there are shreds of truth to it, at least in the numbers reported:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...f-selectivity/2011/12/29/gIQA9droQP_blog.html
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But how do you know if you are triple qualified? My dd is medically qualified from DoDMERB, did great on her CFA, has a ton of leadership and a decent GPA with hard courses, but low SAT scores. She also has a nomination. Her portal has said Complete pending review for months. How do you know if the admissions board will deem you scholastically qualified?
 
A couple things I don't think are being considered when you try to calculate a student's chance of acceptance.

Around 250 plebes are coming in from NAPS and Naval Academy Foundation programs. Yes, they are probably counted in the number of total candidates. But they account for about 1/6 of the incoming class. So everyone else is competing for around 950-1000 spots, not 1150-1200. (Consider this a change in the denominator.)

Around 100 of the incoming plebes were high school graduates who had at least one semester of college when they applied. This number has fluctuated over the years. For class of 2018 it was only 69. A few years ago, I think I remember it being below 50. In some cases, these are students who weren't as competitive in high school. But in many other cases, these are highly competitive students who got a TWE, went to college, did well in hard courses, and maybe even did NROTC.

Also, highly qualified candidates are not evenly distributed across the country. There will be pockets of greater numbers of candidates that reflect better schools, fleet concentration areas, or higher population. Qualified is qualified, but not all qualified candidates are equal. It may take a lot more to receive an appointment in one zip code than in another. A senator in Virginia may get 700 applications for nominations. A senator in Hawaii might get 90.

I do agree with the idea that a foolproof way of not being offered an appointment is to not finish the application. I don't know of a foolproof way of getting appointed. I've known some exceptional students who were not offered appointments. I've even known some great students who reapplied and did not get an appointment.

But I would ask what difference it really makes. Maybe it's nice to have a sense of how likely an appointment it. Maybe it is helpful in determining how many alternate plans a student needs. But what matters for the application cycle itself is to be as highly qualified as possible in all aspects under consideration. Look at the Class Portrait for the most recent class. How do your stats match up to successful applicants? Do you need to raise test scores? Improve your math or science grades? Get hot on the CFA and be more active in athletics? Find a way of being active in extracurriculars and finding areas in which to practice leadership skills? These are important, because it's what is being considered by the admissions board and by nomination boards.

Be the best you can be. Don't dwell on numbers that ultimately don't really matter.
 
NavyMom24 said:
But how do you know if you are triple qualified? My dd is medically qualified from DoDMERB, did great on her CFA, has a ton of leadership and a decent GPA with hard courses, but low SAT scores. She also has a nomination. Her portal has said Complete pending review for months. How do you know if the admissions board will deem you scholastically qualified?
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My DS was told my his BGO of his 3Q. His portal has the same status as well.
 
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F15DOC said:
I am going to rejuvenate this thread, mostly because I think this is an interesting topic.
I just read an old Washington Post article (2011) about data obtained from USNA through a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request. And it pretty much confirms what I initially believed to be true. If you get yourself triple qualified (which isn't really that hard) then you may have as much as a 50% chance of getting an Appointment Offer. You still need that nom, if you are blessed to be in a state where the noms are not impossibly hard, then you have a really really great shot at it.
Here is the anti-military biased article, but there are shreds of truth to it, at least in the numbers reported:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...f-selectivity/2011/12/29/gIQA9droQP_blog.html
Click to expand...
I respectfully disagree. Getting yourself 3Q does not mean you will have a 50% chance of being admitted. If you "qualify" academically with a 26 ACT and a class rank of 80 in a class of 160, and have lackluster but minimally qualifying leadership, athletic, and CFA accomplishments, you have less than a 1% chance of getting in, UNLESS you either win a principal nomination or are in a district with only candidates who have a less impressive application. Getting to the 3Q level does not give you a 50% spin, and the arrow ends up on your half of the wheel you get in

Numbers can be played with in a way which results in a deceiving message.
 
USNA no longer tells applicants if they are 3Q. There are other recent threads on here where BGO's have stated they are NOT to tell applicants of their 3Q status, but apparently some still do.

News articles from 6 yrs ago may contain outdated information about the current process. If you know the history of Prof. Fleming, I would careful in using any of his info to draw conclusions since he has an obvious bias against USNA (lots of older threads on that one also).

Getting 3Q is NOT as simple as some are implying. I am still not clear what specific question the op who started this thread is trying to answer.
 
Coming from a competitive area for USNA (Annapolis/MD), I would agree that you can have great numbers and and still not get a nomination from a MOC. I was turned down on all of my nominations except ROTC/NJROTC. I dont want to even haphazard a guess of how small my percentage of getting a BFE coming from that particular pool. My backup plans are all solid. I have talked to all of my schools and they understand my waiting on USNA before I decide with the exception of Harvard. Should I not get an appointment, I know that I put my best effort forward into this process and let the chips fall as they may. Good luck to all who are still on this roller coaster
 
USNA 19 DAD said:
BINGO! My Plebe interviewed against no more than 15 or so others for our district. THAT was his competition, not the kid who scored 800/800 from somewhere else.
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We are in an extremely competitive district in Florida. Our congressman's office called us and said they loved our son and initially had him down for 1 of the 10 NOMS, then took him off because our Senator Nominated him. They told us in Florida the Senator NOM is better since he was interviewing with 500 other applicants versus the 100 in our district. No word yet, but appreciated their call and the fact they said they notified USNA that they had him in their top 10 and why they took him off.
 
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