AROTC Class of 2014 Branching

It really sucks for the December grads who don't know if they mad the AD cutoff line or not....
 
My daughter received an email yesterday indicating that the Army Chief of Staff has requested a review with head of Westpoint and head of Cadet Command to review their accessions plan. The meeting has not been scheduled and branching is delayed until the meeting takes place. So at this point there appears to be no target branch release date.
 
Word on the grapevine is now some time in the middle of next week.
 
FY 2011 Commissions as follows:

ROTC Cohort FY11 5348
"commission Review" 4
Actually Commissioned FY11 5344

Divided as Follows:
Ed Delay 108
AD Nurse 233
Reserves Nurse 20
Guaranteed Reserves (GRFD) 839
AD eligible who Chose Reserves 540
Ad eligible "forced" (via OML standing) into Reserves 669
Original AD Allocation FY11 2817
Additional AD Allocation FY11 118, for a total of 2,935 AD commissions for FY11

It just dawned on me that this could be a really devastating year for those intent on AD. Let's use the numbers from 2011 -- Assume 2817 as the start point, and subtract 550. That leaves 2267 as the AD allocation.

If 2287 is the AD allocation, and the same number of cadets are in ROTC (I don't know if this is true or not), and the same number are guaranteed or choose Reserves/Gaurd, then it would break out like this:

ROTC Cohort FY14 5344

Divided as Follows:
Ed Delay 108
AD Nurse 233
Reserves Nurse 20
Guaranteed Reserves (GRFD) 839
AD eligible who Chose Reserves 540
---
Wanting AD: 3604
Postulated AD Allocation: 2267
number forced RD 1337
% Forced RD 37%


The bottom line is the % of cadets wanting AD but forced into Reserves/Guard would increase
from
669 or 18.6% in FY11
to
1,337or 37%, in FY14.

Basically, twice as many (37%) would be forced into Reserves/Guard FY14 vs. FY11.

I have no idea how many were forced Reserves/Guard pre FY11, but my guess is under 15 for the year prior, and under 10% 2009 back to 2002.

So that means that the cadet's position on the OML could not be below the 35th percentile to get AD, more or less. Or looked at another way, more than a third of the cadets wanting AD wouldn't get it. That's a level of Branching heartbreak like we haven't seen since at least FY01.

This also indicates to me that the OCS program will probably be severely reduced for this year and into the foreseeable future, since OCS is the program looked at first during rapid buildup, and looked at last during rapid drawdown.
 
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We've heard about eight different reasons for the delay in the past week. Not one of them has been directly from Cadet Command. They could cut one slot, they could cut a thousand slots, they could add two hundred slots. This is all speculation until the numbers are published.
 
We've heard about eight different reasons for the delay in the past week. Not one of them has been directly from Cadet Command. They could cut one slot, they could cut a thousand slots, they could add two hundred slots. This is all speculation until the numbers are published.
^ true. My numbers above are based upon several reports of a 550 allocation cut for AD posted earlier in this Thread.
 
According to the numbers given above a cadet would need to be in the top 63% of those wanting AD to make it. Can't take the percentage from the overall national OML since those requesting reserves and NG have not yet been removed.

I agree, with the lack of any concrete information it is impossible to speculate how things will go and how the numbers will fall.
 
Maybe. But I bet if I started a rumor that cuts had increased to 750 that within a few days you'd have "several reports" of it. Plan as best you can for either outcome.
 
The OCS Board was already pushed to January from Nov or Dec so Dunninla's statements regarding OCS are likely accurate.

I suspect the AD allocation will be lower than year 2011 as a starting point.
 
FY14 Accessions Delay

Just seeing if anyone has an update on the estimated date of the branching results. Flash to bang here is looking critical as I graduate this December. My PMS and CC are about useless when it comes to keeping us informed. Only intel I have is that we are waiting on the CSA to be briefed and numbers for AD have been changed.
 
The Metro Denver ROTC facebook page (as posted earlier) that branching is out.

"Add me to Snapchat for the branching results. Thanks"
 
Well here we go. I am now eagerly awaiting an email from my PMS:biggrin:

Also, any news on the cut line now that they are finding out?

I think it's still a little early to see all of that. Brigades are holding their leader conferences right now so a good chunk of PMS's are away from home station. Our PMS is calling MS4's individually from the brigade headquarters with the news.
 
Just posting to second that branching got released. My class is getting phone calls from the LTC right now. :thumb:
 
My son walked into class and 30 seconds later got the email to come see the PMS as accessions are in!

Hope everyone gets what they all worked so hard for!
 
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