Class of 2015 Profile

Discussion in 'Naval Academy - USNA' started by AikiBudo, Aug 10, 2011.

  1. AikiBudo

    AikiBudo Member

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  2. summer1942

    summer1942 Member

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    Here are some statistic:

    USNA of 2015 class size: 1229
    Midn from NAPS, NNPP, NAFP, Enlisted: 246 +16+47+25 = 334
    Midn from High school + College : 1229-334 =895

    Applications:19,145
    Acceptance rate for USNA class of 2015 : 895/19,145= 4.67%

    Wow !!!!
     
  3. AikiBudo

    AikiBudo Member

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    1426/19145 for a 7.45% rate overall - still on par with Harvard's.

    Also the College Board Data was:
    (Middle 50th percentile)
    Verbal 590-720 Math 610-730

    Impressive numbers
     
  4. Luigi59

    Luigi59 Banned

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    The acceptance rate is not 4.67%. There were not 19k applicants.

    Count "completed applications" only if you want to compare apples to apples.

    Counting every single person who types their name and address and enters a GPA as an "applicant" is not very accurate.

    Perhaps those should be labeled as "inquiries" and only those who actually completed the application should be called "applicants."

    No candidate will ever compete against someone who doesn't submit a completed application, therefore to judge "acceptance rates" using any other method makes no sense.
     
  5. AikiBudo

    AikiBudo Member

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    I'm not sure what other figure to use for acceptance rates except the application numbers that USNA provides. Are you saying that figure is only for the preliminary applications? As for comparing apples to apples - the 1426/19,145 number is the "official" figure that will be used by college websites, etc. when showing the acceptance rate at USNA.
     
  6. Whistle Pig

    Whistle Pig Banned

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    Luigi's on the money. Looking at it the other way, any and everyone who sent Harvard their SAT, ACT, or filled out a card for info at the college fair might be included.

    This is a re-hash, but the "acceptance rate" is definitely monumentally higher than 4-5%.

    In fact there probably is no analogous stats.

    But let me offer a thought. An "acceptance" at USNA requires successfully completing 2 steps ... 1. Becoming 3Qed AND 2. Receiving a nomination.

    Historically we know that between 1,800 - 1,900 become 3 Qed. What we do not know is how many more of the 19,000 receiving a candidate # complete all 3 phases and thus the number of candidates who are declined. Simplifying this ... how many candidate files are reviewed? I don't recall ever seeing that figure. BGOs ... has that ever been shared in your briefings?

    Re: the other aspect of "admissions" (offer of apppointment at USNA) is the nomination. We know approximately 6,200 are provided each year, no more, no fewer. That one's always essentially a fixed number... (unless Congress does what it should and reduces the number of seats. But that's for another day down the road.) Guessing, that may represent approximately 5,000 - 5,500 candidates, accounting for multiple nominations for perhaps 10 -15% of candidates. (Again, no idea if this is high, low, pure guess).

    Of that 5,000 + or - who now have a nomination, let's assume 4,500 + or - have completed all aspects of seeking to be 3Qed. This tells us that on one hand, approximately 3,000 potential candidates are rejected at this point. Another 300 are rejected being 3 Qed with nom but are not offered acceptance. ... So what we know is there are at least approximately 3,300 who are competing and are rejected.

    What we do not know and this would be one of two magic #s in trying to look at this from perhaps a different perspective ... HOW MANY CANDIDATES REQUEST NOMINATIONS but are not invited for an interview. Then add to this number those who interview but are not nominated. These 2 numbers would contribute to the 3,300 of "rejected" students.

    What is the point of this muddling? Simply to say that this is NOT about 900 or so Plebes being chosen from 19,000 or so individuals with candidate numbers. That is simply disingenuous in pondering selectivity and trying to compare USNA to a Harvard, Yale, Princeton. The numbers don't work under some analyses.

    That offered up, let me put my own coup de grace to this though. It is simple and were it "provable" I'd bet every nickel I have ... make that "had" in light of the market... and here is my thesis:

    Swap "curricula", i.e. have the Harvard frosh required to do what USNA plebes are expected to do ... and USNA plebes assigned the expectations and requirements of Harvard students ... and do it for 4 years. And I'll give anyone 10 - 1 odds the attrition stats of the Harvard beets would "beat" USNA. It would be a no brainer, no contest. And isn't that the ultimate measure of "selectivity?" These are not interchangeable parts. Fruits and Mids!

    So summarizing ... looking at this requires assessing offers, rejections/declines, and most of all successful AND timely (4 years) completion. It is no contest, imo.
     
  7. AikiBudo

    AikiBudo Member

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    Right or wrong the acceptance rate that will be published is the 1426/19145 number or 7.45% and this will be compared to other college acceptance rates. I don't make the numbers. I understand that they are not really equivalent but tell that to the many sites that will use those figures. This current rate can be compared to the USNA acceptance rate for the last several years which has fallen from 14% to closer to 7%.
     
  8. Luigi59

    Luigi59 Banned

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    No, USNA does. You've just been shown that they are meaningless.

    Incorrect. USNA used to publish the number of qualified candidates. The number of appointments, divided by the number of qualified candidates, yielded something around 14%.

    The number today would be not much different, despite what you want you believe.

    All of the SAs have an ~acceptance rate between 14%-20%.

    For example, at USCGA, for the class of 2015 (which just entered this summer) they had 2,344 completed applications and awarded 373 appointments for an acceptance rate of 15.9%. (BTW - if we counted all applicants who started an on-line file, that number was 4,543. If we divide total appointment offers by that number, we get an unrealistic rate also).

    For the class of 2014 (at USCGA), they had 2,223 completed applications and awarded 385 appointments for an acceptance rate of 17.3%.

    I think if you get the real numbers from USNA, they would be somewhere in that range as well.

    :cool:
     
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2011
  9. tptim4

    tptim4 Member

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    As Luigi stated, USCGA supplies this information......not sure if the other SAs do. I find it interesting that CGA provides BOTH application numbers. From the class of 2015 profile:

    On-Line Applications Received - 4,543
    Applications Completed - 2,344
    Appointed - 373
    Enrolled - 291

    Using the loose standard 373/4,543 would net an acceptance rate of 8.2% but using the more realistic standard of applications actually completed 373/2,344 would net a rate of 15.9%. As has been stated before, using an applications started (but not completed) standard is misleading. Still, a rate of 15.9% is incredibly competitive. Since the Congressional Appointment process isn't used at CGA, that number is all inclusive. I don't know why the other SAs insist on using the faulty standard, especially when using a more realistic standard still yields incredibly competitive numbers.

    Bottom line? All SA's are incredibly competitive no matter how you look at it!
     
  10. Luigi59

    Luigi59 Banned

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    Ego.

    Without a doubt, I believe that a compelling case could be made that the 5 SAs are THE most difficult educational institutions to gain admission to in the nation.

    Many Ivy League students couldn't pass a physical fitness test, many couldn't pass a DODMERB medical examination either. And that little pot bust or underage drinking ticket back in 10th grade? You can still get into Harvard or Yale, but try to get into a SA with a past criminal conviction or arrest.

    Not to mention graduating in 4 years, summer training, 19-23 credits per semester, 5AM reveille, drill, uniforms, barracks, restrictions on personal property, etc.
     
  11. AikiBudo

    AikiBudo Member

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    USNA does not break out the application figures anymore but they have used the same total application figure for the last several years - so comparison can be made for the last several years (only) for the USNA. I am familiar with the previous posts and arguments regarding the numbers but they will still be widely used for comparison purposes. Regardless of the exact numbers I think eveyone would agree that the SA's are incredilby competitive.
     
  12. usna1985

    usna1985 USNA Alumnus

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    In my area, about 50-60% complete their packets. However, some of those who don't complete are medically DQ'ed. I suspect that, in some cases (not all), candidates "give up" for this reason.
     
  13. AikiBudo

    AikiBudo Member

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    I don't believe the numbers are "meaningless" and I don't believe that it is fair to compare just the number of 3Q'd candidates to the number of people who submitted an application to Harvard. I'm sure a number of the 30k plus people who applied to Harvard this year were also not "qualified" and maybe just taking a long shot. Obviously the entire process for the SA's is much more involved and complicated than the typical college but it may be more fair to use the 19k plus applicant number for comparison to the 30k Harvard number:cool:
     
  14. neugs

    neugs USNA 2015 Appointee

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  15. Whistle Pig

    Whistle Pig Banned

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    Great insight. Thanks '85! While guesstimating, one could possibly extrapolate on those numbers, if inclined. I'm not sure what it would prove beyond assuaging egoes and supporting braggin' contests @ "the club."

    Suffice it to say, the SAs and especially USNA are highly competitive in the admissions game. Among the highest.

    And without ANY doubt the 86% retention, graduation and commissioning rate ... IN 4 YEARS and all with BS degrees ... makes USNA and fellow SAs ...

    THE MOST SELECTIVE, THE MOST COMPETITIVE, and THE MOST SUCCESSFUL at getting the BEST STUDENTS the most COMPETITIVE DEGREES in the SHORTEST AMOUNT OF TIME while LOSING THE FEWEST. (sorry ... didn't mean to YELL! :eek:)

    And beyond the "fellow SAs", there is not a close 2nd! And btw, did we mention that 62% in th Class of 2011 completed this run with majors in engineering, science, math, oceanography, naval architecture, and other technical subjects. And not one in women's, black, or gay studies, art, music, education, PE (altho they probably ALL have the equivalent and more), leisure studies, parks and rec, home economics, etc. We get the picture.)

    And that is virtually indisputable. All the rest is quibbling and splitting hairs, fretting about bits of information unavailable and indefensible.

    neugs ... not sure what the link is supposed to be linking us to. Can you check it or edify us?
     
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2011
  16. AikiBudo

    AikiBudo Member

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    I second that!
     
  17. Whistle Pig

    Whistle Pig Banned

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    Now, time to sober up.

    Despite a literal 60% increase in "applicants" in a 4 year span (19,135 from 12,003), virtually all traditional measures of selectivity have declined significantly which seems to fly in the face of what anyone might anticipate. Common sense would say more candidates, more selective. Not so. It's become notably LESS SELECTIVE, at least when putting all candidates and appointees in one, same pool. I'll summarize them later, but for example, in 2011, 78% of the class was in the top 20% vs. 79% in the top 25%. No real big deal. More significant is25% (2015) vs. 16% (2011) scoring below 610 or equivalent. This is a 56% "increase" of appointees scoring below that level. This is particularly significant for any number of reasons but specifically, it flies in the face of one of the Academy's key objectives, i.e. to INCREASE the number of USNA engineering/math/technical graduates to 65% while at the same time there is a monumental downslide in math scores among those students being appointed. Also, it is particularly notable as this has been noted to be the single most heavily weighted factor in Whole Person scoring, i.e. math SAT/ACT. It is deemed to be critical to future success AND unlike math grades or class ranking, is standardized.

    This is the 2nd consecutive year for this downturn, and one more, a 3rd consecutive slide might be determined to be a trend. More generally though, with 60% more candidates this year than 4 years past, why are academic measures declining? The Supe should hope that there are no BoV members scrutinizing this issue.

    But as far as bragging rights might go? Sorry 2015 doesn't measure up to the 1st and 2nd classes at USNA ... with one exception.
     
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2011
  18. MIHOSER

    MIHOSER Member

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    I have been through the drill both ways - one child accepted to an Ivy and one to an SA.

    Both are difficult for acceptance, but in different ways. The one that was accepted to the SA was not accepted to the Ivy. The one that was accepted to the Ivy did not apply to an SA. Each institution is looking for different things from their successful applicant. For instance, the Ivy puts great stock in "building a class." The SA has to accept applicants from all 50 states +.

    In other words, it's apples and oranges and there really is no way to compare, least of all by comparing acceptance rates that are calculated in different manners.

    So what - both are on their way and doing well academically (and other ways).
     
  19. Whistle Pig

    Whistle Pig Banned

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    And in researching this issue, I did uncover a most significant number that will lend some further insight to the OP issue of selectivity.

    Class of 2011 had ...

    A. 12,003 applicants
    B. 3,827 applicants with an official nomination (THIS is the key figure, probably changes very little because there are a fixed number of nominations.)
    C. 1,893 Nominees 3Qed
    D. 1,419 Offers of appointment
    E. 1,202 Inducted (10 accepted appointments and either did not show or left prior to induction.)
    F. 1,006 Graduated

    So you can figure this ... that 2015 had approximately 4,000 (perhaps a few less) of applicants with a valid nomination and about half of those become 3Qed.

    P.S. MIHOSER, in part you make my point. They are vastly different pools, generally. But ... without any doubt, USNA students would stand far greater chance of completing their tenure at an Ivy, any Ivy, than the vast majority of Ivyites would in finishing at USNA. And I'll stand by that one any and every day. :wink:
     
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2011
  20. AikiBudo

    AikiBudo Member

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    First of all thank you verifying my statement that the applications have significantly increased over the last several years and the acceptance rate has gone down - this all occurred AFTER USNA changed the way they reported applicants. As for the SAT scores - 2011 numbers are not shown in the same format as 2015. 2015 only shows the 50th percentile while the 2011 numbers show the percentage under 600 and the percentage over 600 to 699 with NO breakout of those numbers over 600 - we have no idea how many are in the over 699 SAT category for 2011 while 2015 has 25% over 730 Math. Also the 2015 class figure for the lower 25% is under 610 NOT 600. You also completely leave out the Verbal scores which look just as good. It is tough to make fully accurate comparisons with the numbers given.
     

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