Class of 2017 Service Selection Stats

[usna1985]

I remember when ours was done all within a 36 hour period.

And I remember when it was all done at the same time -- Service Selection Night. You picked your ship or, in the case of aviation/USMC, your class date at the same time you picked your warfare specialty. And there was no Internet so you didn't really know what was available until you walked into the room.

It's important to keep in mind that 95%+ get their first choice. Those are probably better odds than at any other time in your USNA/USMC career. I absolutely agree that it would be terrific if 100% got their first choice -- assuming they were qualified for it. But we all know that isn't possible just as it won't be possible to get your first choice of assignments forever once in your service.

Also, it's impossible to know whether the "path not taken" would have been better, even if it was the path most desired. I know that early in my career I was "voluntold" to go to an assignment when I had earned and selected a different (and, in my view, better) assignment. In the end, my career and (really) my life were changed for the better by what happened. It took me YEARs to realize it, but looking back it was certainly true.

Finally, as noted in an earlier post, in the "old days" of "service selection," there were mids who didn't get their first choice. In some cases, it was due to injury or late-breaking vision issues (in the days before corrective surgery). In many cases, it was that the mid didn't do well enough academically. So, while the process is somewhat different, nothing has really changed.

 

[Memphis9489]

what would you suggest if in a given year 600 wanted pilot, one wanted subs and all the rest wanted Marines?

You may not have read my entire comment on this matter. I simply do not think the quotas should be that rigid. I gave an example that a quota of 130 for subs, for instance, should be a "soft" quota. Shoot for 130 but accept plus-or-minus 10. Accept as few as 120 or as many as 140. If there is a quota of 230 for pilots ... maybe allow for as low as 210 and as high as 250. I understand that there has to be some limit. And, of course, the midshipmen have to be qualified.

I'm not saying that everybody should get what they want. I'm saying that midshipmen at the Naval Academy should get what they want ... if they're qualified and within the boundaries of reasonable (i.e. flexible) quotas.

I'm not talking about a touchy-feely, everybody-gets-a-participation-medal way of assigning communities as seems to be suggested. I'm saying that there should be some advantage to attending the Naval Academy. It seems a shame that a midshipman cannot be a pilot because he is the 231st qualified person requesting it and there is a hard, rigid, cannot-be-adjusted quota of 230. Give me a break! Ridiculous!

Even worse - some poor midshipman who wants to fly (and is qualified!) but, unfortunately, did very well academically and got an A in thermodynamics, is being coerced into subs because the Navy needs one more to meet their very rigid quota of 130. Would the Navy fall apart if only 129 academy grads went subs? I think not.

That's not an example of the "Needs of the Navy" ... that's lack of creativity and leadership.

 

[NavyHoops]

Memphis I actually don't think that number is as rigid as you are making it out to be. We don't know the answer because they don't publish the numbers ahead of time. So let me ask this question... should USNA grads have an advantage in airframe selection or TBS MOS selection because of going to USNA?

 

[Dadof2]

I'm not saying that everybody should get what they want. I'm saying that midshipmen at the Naval Academy should get what they want

I'm saying that there should be some advantage to attending the Naval Academy.

With all due respect to Memphis's opinion, I think there are already significant advantages to attending USNA over ROTC and other commissioning sources. This is coming from a parent of a USNA Mid and a SMC cadet on NROTC MO 4yr scholarship. For one, the USNA Mid gets paid better each month - by quite a bit. Our SMC/ROTC cadet pays room and board; USNA Mid does not. So after 4 years the USNA Mid leaves with a pretty nice nest egg if she doesn't do anything foolish. Our SMC/ROTC cadet will have tens of thousand of dollars of debt (not really since we are paying the room and board for him, but you get the point). I think this is just one example of an advantage to attending USNA.

Also, I would agree that USNA is more well known than the small SMC and maybe that will be a big plus in the future, but I'm not so sure that the SMC doesn't prepare a person as well for their military career. There are advantages and disadvantages when comparing the two, but I think both are excellent paths to commission. I'm quite sure that I am biased on this given my situation, but I hope both of my children end up where they want to go and don't feel one should have any more chance at getting their first choice than the other unless one is more qualified for their first choice than the other.

 

[NavyNOLA]

Memphis I actually don't think that number is as rigid as you are making it out to be. We don't know the answer because they don't publish the numbers ahead of time. So let me ask this question... should USNA grads have an advantage in airframe selection or TBS MOS selection because of going to USNA?

Absolutely. They should probably also get first preference out of the FRS for squadron/duty station, reserved parking spaces at the hangar, and bonus points on future promotion boards. I'd recommend waiving their O-Mess dues as well.

 

[nuensis]

Numbers are not super rigid. From the various briefs passed around last fall, there is a goal number that USNA/Navy wants for each community. Ones or twos doesn't matter, but they can't be something like two dozen under that goal. There's no scrambling to find five people because there's 125 nukes instead of 130. The problem is when 95 volunteer and the goal is 130. That's too wide of a gap.

And when there's 35 SEAL slots and 50 SEAL hopefuls, the nuke community is going to look in that pool and find the Group 1 and Group 2 majors with high CQPRs. Yes, they will still be a bit salty because they got "nuke drafted" when they totally could've been a SEAL, but obviously some of them were not going to be SEALs. Same for the extra thirty guys in the Pilot pool that didn't want to be NFOs. USNA can make thirty extra Pilots and be under on NFOs, or they can take a real hard look at which of those in the Pilot pool would make pretty decent NFOs too.

Those Marine hopefuls getting submarines--perhaps passable performance at Leatherneck, but unexceptional. When the nuke community comes knocking because the guy is a MechE major with a 3.6 CQPR, the USMC community didn't feel too motivated to object.

USNA grads still do get perks. We have more Med Corps, SEAL, EOD, and IWC slots. We get slots to NPS after graduation (Bowman), as well as IGEP and VGEP opportunities outside of fleet programs.

I like the first paragraph but disagree with the second one. Mids take those classes in their first and/or second year, do you remember the many sad faces towards the end of ship selection when the ships and homeports left are really limited?

The ones at the end of ship selection were the ones that were happy to have made 2.0. They had more than a few Cs and Ds.

 

[ktnatalk]

@nuensis, thanks for sharing the insight!

The ones at the end of ship selection were the ones that were happy to have made 2.0. They had more than a few Cs and Ds.

Still, it hurts to see those walking back and forth on stage between what's left: ships homeport in Bahrain or Norfolk.

 

[NavyHoops]

At least they have some influcence on their destiny, although the choices may seem slim. You should see what MOS night at TBS looks like and then when we get our first set of orders. So many peaks and valleys all done behind the scenes.

 

[Memphis9489]

So let me ask this question... should USNA grads have an advantage in airframe selection or TBS MOS selection because of going to USNA?

Nope! Once you are commissioned, from whatever source - you are on your own. It should become completely a matter of merit. You either earn it or you don't.

But, as far as initial assignments to a community - I think service academy graduates should have preferential assignment. Again, they have to be qualified. I certainly understand reasonable quotas - but not rigid quotas.

 

[usnaPERSON]

Nope! Once you are commissioned, from whatever source - you are on your own. It should become completely a matter of merit. You either earn it or you don't.

But, as far as initial assignments to a community - I think service academy graduates should have preferential assignment. Again, they have to be qualified. I certainly understand reasonable quotas - but not rigid quotas.

Why do you say this? I'm just curious as to why you think that they should get an advantage over ocs or rotc?

 

[Memphis9489]

Why do you say this? I'm just curious as to why you think that they should get an advantage over ocs or rotc?

I say this because of all the officer training programs, service academy graduates have FAR more familiarity and exposure to the service in which they are about to enter. Consequently, their preference for community is based on more solid information. In other words, a midshipman from the Naval Academy who thinks he/she would do well in Naval Aviation is making the decision with a much larger database of information. It's not simply because he/she thinks they might be a good pilot, they may be even more certain that they would not enjoy Surface Warfare or being a Marine, for instance.

I mean, seriously, how much could an OCS graduate possibly know about the Navy? OCS is 12 weeks. The Naval Academy is 4 years. NROTC grads would know more than OCS grads, but let's not pretend that ROTC training comes anywhere close to academy training. The academy midshipmen are making more informed preferences.

 

[usna1985]

With all due respect, I think we're blowing this out of proportion. 95% got their first or second choice. I would imagine that most of those in the 5% finished very low in their class. In life (military or civilian), you learn that not doing well has its consequences.

To be clear, I'm not "blaming" folks who are trying their best and still struggling. But the big, bad world doesn't care.

For the handful who are "drafted," I agree that's unfortunate and should stop, if for no other reason than it's not a recipe for long-term retention.

 

[Memphis9489]

95% got their first or second choice.

Where'd you get that number? You may be confusing that with the fact that 95% got assigned into an unrestricted line community - which is pretty much what we would expect. That's a fairly typical percentage considering that you have to factor in the Medical Corps selectees and those who are NPQ (Not Physically Qualified) for an unrestricted line community.

But the actual number who got their 1st choice was only 86% - not 95%. That means, out of 1066 graduates, almost 150 midshipmen did not get their 1st choice. That is not an insignificant number. An equally significant number didn't even get their 2nd choice. There is no denying that there is an increasing trend where academy graduates are getting assigned and their personal preferences are merely advisory.

 

[5Day]

Anyone have any data on service selection for NROTC or OCS? It would be interesting to see how the other commissioning sources faired.

 

[NavyHoops]

I wouldn't factor in OCS. It would really throw numbers off as it is a gap filler.

 

[usna1985]

Where'd you get that number?

USNA website. See https://www.usna.edu/NewsCenter/2016/11/naval-academy-class-of-2017-receives-service-assignments.php

In relevant part: "95 percent of the Class of 2017 received their first or second assignment preference."

Not sure this is all that different from my day when it was "service selection." Though everyone got to choose, by the time some folks lower in the class got to choose, the options were pretty limited. So, if you really wanted to be an NFO but there were no more NFO slots when your number was called and you picked SWO, did you get your first choice? Probably not -- you did, however, get your first choice of what was left.

Anecdotally, I hear that a decent number of folks who don't get their first choice picked SEAL or EOD -- they were qualified but not enough slots available. Those are pretty small communities and it may not be possible for everyone who is qualified from USNA to go into those communities.

I know one mid who had two top choices. Put down one as #1 (and got it) but would not have been disappointed with #2. So, we shouldn't assume that everyone who received a second choice was terribly upset -- I'm sure some were disappointed but others might have been wavering and #2 wasn't such a bad thing.

 

[Memphis9489]

In relevant part: "95 percent of the Class of 2017 received their first or second assignment preference."

That's a little trick they play every year. They trumpet how many got their "first or second" choice but they never tell you how many got their 1st choice. They always lump the 1st and 2nd choice together in order to mask how many are not getting their 1st choice.

 

[NavyNOLA]

Anyone have any data on service selection for NROTC or OCS? It would be interesting to see how the other commissioning sources faired.

For NROTC, about 90% have gotten their first or second choice the last two years. About 85% get their first choice.

 

[NavyNOLA]

That's a little trick they play every year. They trumpet how many got their "first or second" choice but they never tell you how many got their 1st choice. They always lump the 1st and 2nd choice together in order to mask how many are not getting their 1st choice.

Poor special snowflakes.....

 

[Memphis9489]

Poor special snowflakes.....

Listen, I'm a big proponent of toughing things up at the Naval Academy. But, nonetheless, I think there should be some reward for those who have persevered, are QUALIFIED and want to pursue a certain community as long as it is within reasonable quota boundaries. Obviously, we can't have everybody in the class go SEAL or Navy pilot. I'm simply proposing that some common sense and latitude be built into the system and they should try harder than they seem to be in getting midshipmen their 1st choice to the maximum extent possible. Apparently, Naval Academy midshipmen do not fair much better on getting their 1st choice as the NROTC graduates do. I think that's misguided considering that the Naval Academy is, unquestionably, the Navy's PREMIERE officer training institution.