Virginia, Texas and California are generally considered competitive. If you live close to a service academy your area will probably be competitive for that service academy. If you live by a military base there is also a good chance that your area is competitive.
Smaller states have a little bit of an advantage. Every state has 2 senators and basically every applicant from a state applies to senatorial nominations from the 2 senators from that state. In Wyoming there are only about 500000 people while in California there are more than 30000000. California has about 60x the people, and if there is a proportional amount of people applying to service academies in both states, that means in California you are competing for a senatorial nomination with about 60x the people a person from Wyoming has to compete with. That doesn't mean all smaller states and less competitive than all larger states, but that's an advantage for the smaller states.