Defense budget cuts for ROTC??

[Packer]

Nothing has changed. Everybody still needs plan B and C just like last week and needs to be worrying about what they can control/affect and not worry about that which they have no control over.

 

[bruno]

Nothing has changed. Everybody still needs plan B and C just like last week and needs to be worrying about what they can control/affect and not worry about that which they have no control over.

Absolutely on target. It will be what it will be and it's not doing anyone any service to spin around in a tizzy speculating on what may or may not happen.

 

[Pima]

So get rid of poor performing ROTC programs.

Just like in the AD world sometimes poor performing units are a reflection of the command, and not the unit.

A crappy commander can sink the morale of the unit, which sinks everything.

Think of it like football, the coach can make or break the team.

IMPO I am 100% opposed to this idea.

Now if you want to say reduce the amount of host colleges to cut costs, I am with you.

If you want to say cut the GS position and have the unit pick it up via the AD, I can see that.

If you want to say that the ROTC selection system changes for every branch to a nationalistic WCS approach I am with you.

Sorry, but IMPHO this tied to the school, and the cadet has always been strange to me.

I have yet to have anyone in the NROTC or AROTC explain to me, why if 1000 scholarships are available you just don't give to the top 1000K candidates like AFROTC, schools have no part in the equation.

Why force them to use at a certain college. Why lose a higher caliber student that was accepted to the college, but not awarded a scholarship to that unit? You are asking them to choose military or college at the age of 18 and the financial burden.

AFROTC says take it to any college that accepts the scholarship, if they have 0% at 1 college and 100% at another, it isn't a factor for them. DD is at VT and I believe it is a great college, but academically it is not UVA. AFROTC cadets accepted to both can make their decision. A/NROTC would be tied to that one college.

Sorry, I still can't get it. If that is Member's intention with his post, I agree.

When someone can explain why the college is the factor in the decision making process for ROTC I will get it. We all tell our kids that commissioning source does not matter when AD, so why would the college?

 

[patentesq]

Absolutely on target. It will be what it will be and it's not doing anyone any service to spin around in a tizzy speculating on what may or may not happen.

I think this is a mistake. I don't think our country's overspending problem is going away anytime soon. Sure, an unexpected conflict could delay things, but I wouldn't count on it (we are getting to the point where isolationism takes on a greater following when we as a nation don't have the money to take on the "world policeman" mantra). As such, I really don't think that it is speculation to see major spending cuts looming on the horizon. The smart ones will plan for it. Those who take the approach "let's just see what happens" risk getting swept away with the tide.

That said, Packer is absolutely right about contingency planning always being the sage advice around here, even in good times.

 

[Jcleppe]

Absolutely on target. It will be what it will be and it's not doing anyone any service to spin around in a tizzy speculating on what may or may not happen.

I have to agree, last year this board lit up with pages of discussion regarding the budget battles that were going on. Speculation on what would happen ran all over the place from cutting the AD slots in half for AROTC to a sharp decline in scholarships.

Scholarships have seemed to be reduced and more 3 years are being offered. As far as AD, the Army actually incresed the number of AD slots for the class of 2012 from the previous year.

Bruno has the right idea, pure speculation will get you nowhere, work hard and do your best, it's the best any of our kids can do. If the past few years has shown us anything, it's that things seem to change at a moments notice.

Reminds me of one of my favorite quotes..."Life is what happens while were busy making plans"

Ofcourse it goes with out saying our kids should be well aware of current events and budget issues and have a good grasp on what may be coming in the future. Knowledge of all this will help in any decision making.

Anyone who has served in the military knows that there can be cruel realities. The military has and always will be at the mercy of the politicians and the budget axe. We survived the RIF's of the late 70's and 90's though it was tough junior officers were still being commissioned during these years. There is not a lot we can do when it comes to cuts other then sweat through the process.

For those young kids looking for scholarship opportunites the planning really starts before their freshman year in high school. Students who are looking towards this goal need to start planning early. My younger son was one of those, his brother was 3 years ahead of him and was in ROTC with a scholarship, he understood what he needed to be competetive and worked toward that goal. Joining any club or organization that provided leadership opportunities, participating in athletics and maintaining a decent GPA through school. That planning paid off, but basically what he was doing was the best he could to make himself competitive. The same will go for those that are in AD, work hard, take advantage of any training offered and make yourself to valuable to be let go, this is about the best anyone can do. Budget issues will happen and personell will be released, best bet is keep your resume up to date and one eye on the private sector should your number come up.

 

[patentesq]

Reminds me of one of my favorite quotes..."Life is what happens while were busy making plans"

While I have nothing but the finest admiration for both you and bruno, we disagree philosophically on this point.

When my DS was evaluating options last year between 4-Yr Army ROTC Scholarship and SA, one of the issues that came up in the analysis (and there were MANY) was what is the likelihood of earning an active-duty slot upon graduation. This is now a moot point, because he is absolutely thrilled with his decision to go the USMA route. But I would be willing to bet that the percentage of USMA grads gaining active duty slots will be greater than those coming from ROTC (I see more ROTC folks being forced into the National Guard, Reserves, IRR in the next several years). Relatively speaking, of course because the commissioning pool for ROTC is much greater than USMA or the other SAs. I could be wrong, though.

The fact is that candidates have to make decisions TODAY about which commissioning path to follow based on information received TODAY about what conditions will look like in 2016!!!! Simply waiting around until 2016 to see what happens is, at least in my view, NOT the right approach. In 2016, it is too late to go back and start over.

The fact is that with all the budget problems that presented themselves last year, the predictions for this year have been EXACTLY on target. While I do not have a crystal ball for 2016, I highly expect that it will involve a smaller Defense budget, with a resultant reduction in the officer ranks.

Advising folks to "just go with the flow" is not the right approach in my humble opinion.

 

[Pima]

I don't see as spinning in a tizzy so much. I see posters, be it candidates or parents; applying to college and trying to grasp if they will be able to pay for college without the ROTC scholarship. The reduction in the DOD budget may play an impact.

Let's remember some will apply for ROTC with the intention of diving after their commitment.

AFROTC is unique, no SFT on scholarship and it can be over for both the academic and military career. Reduction in SFT can be a huge factor between going AFROTC or A/NROTC.

I concur with patentesq. To believe that 2016 will not be impacted is an illusion. They will be impacted, be it scholarships now, due to the failure of the super committee or AD slots because the DOD budget will on a good day be reduced back to the 450 BN cut, and we will be out of Iraq and Afghanistan creating an issue with manpower.

Been here for a while now, and I will say history repeats itself. Army is showing in small tell tale signs they are cutting. Less HSSP recipients, cutting ROTC cadets and reducing AD ranks, (nominally, but still cutting). AFROTC showed the exact same thing 3 yrs ago for 13.

 

[Packer]

While I have nothing but the finest admiration for both you and bruno, we disagree philosophically on this point.

When my DS was evaluating options last year between 4-Yr Army ROTC Scholarship and SA, one of the issues that came up in the analysis (and there were MANY) was what is the likelihood of earning an active-duty slot upon graduation. This is now a moot point, because he is absolutely thrilled with his decision to go the USMA route. But I would be willing to bet that the percentage of USMA grads gaining active duty slots will be greater than those coming from ROTC (I see more ROTC folks being forced into the National Guard, Reserves, IRR in the next several years). Relatively speaking, of course because the commissioning pool for ROTC is much greater than USMA or the other SAs. I could be wrong, though.

The fact is that candidates have to make decisions TODAY about which commissioning path to follow based on information received TODAY about what conditions will look like in 2016!!!! Simply waiting around until 2016 to see what happens is, at least in my view, NOT the right approach. In 2016, it is too late to go back and start over.

The fact is that with all the budget problems that presented themselves last year, the predictions for this year have been EXACTLY on target. While I do not have a crystal ball for 2016, I highly expect that it will involve a smaller Defense budget, with a resultant reduction in the officer ranks.

Advising folks to "just go with the flow" is not the right approach in my humble opinion.

I completely agree with you on this and I bet most others do as well. It seems obvious that one needs to think about the world we live in and use all available information to make decisions. Still nothing is any different today than it was last week.

 

[Pima]

It will be different soon enough if this stalemate continues.

What boggles my mind is everyone's assumption that it will be settled and have no impact.

The MOCs leave for Xmas break in a few short weeks.

I see nothing that illustrates that either side will give in, which means the DOD will remain with a 1.1 TN cut or 110 BN a yr.


If that is the case, a lot has changed today from yesterday or last week.

Like I said many posts ago even the defense contractors with Lockheed for the 35 wonder if they will have a job. These are Pentagon people working on the sacred cow project.

I am not saying run to the store, get milk and bread because 2 inches of snow is predicted.

I am saying that the storm may drop 16 inches, depending on the front, and it would be wise to buy candles too! We are talking a 130% increase in cutting the deficit.

 

[Jcleppe]

While I have nothing but the finest admiration for both you and bruno, we disagree philosophically on this point.

When my DS was evaluating options last year between 4-Yr Army ROTC Scholarship and SA, one of the issues that came up in the analysis (and there were MANY) was what is the likelihood of earning an active-duty slot upon graduation. This is now a moot point, because he is absolutely thrilled with his decision to go the USMA route. But I would be willing to bet that the percentage of USMA grads gaining active duty slots will be greater than those coming from ROTC (I see more ROTC folks being forced into the National Guard, Reserves, IRR in the next several years). Relatively speaking, of course because the commissioning pool for ROTC is much greater than USMA or the other SAs. I could be wrong, though.

The fact is that candidates have to make decisions TODAY about which commissioning path to follow based on information received TODAY about what conditions will look like in 2016!!!! Simply waiting around until 2016 to see what happens is, at least in my view, NOT the right approach. In 2016, it is too late to go back and start over.

The fact is that with all the budget problems that presented themselves last year, the predictions for this year have been EXACTLY on target. While I do not have a crystal ball for 2016, I highly expect that it will involve a smaller Defense budget, with a resultant reduction in the officer ranks.

Advising folks to "just go with the flow" is not the right approach in my humble opinion.

I added a bit to my post before reding your reply.

Don't get me wrong, I agree that our you young people should not" just go with the flow". I may have been a bit to simple in my first draft.

Choosing a commissioning source that will gaurantee AD is good idea, unfortunatly not every applicant, no matter how much they plan, will have the opportunity to attend West Point, my thoughts were directed more towards those in ROTC.

As far as planning goes, other then doing their best in school and ROTC there is not much a cadet can do but ride the wave. I have talked to my younger son at length about this, we have discussed what is needed to have a chance at AD. I have also advised him to look hard at the stats during his sophomore year, if the writing is on the wall that there will be sigificantly less AD slots then he needs to decide whether to pursue Summer training or look for internships in the private sector, all part of the planning process.

ROTC Scholarship applicants can help their cause by listing schools where they are highly competitive, and schools that are not the most popular if the scholarship is the overriding factor in their planning.

I'm all for keeping a close eye on the future and trying your best to put yourself in the best position possible to weather the storm, but in the end, sometimes it just comes down to luck.

Still like the quote though.

 

[Packer]

It will be different soon enough if this stalemate continues.

What boggles my mind is everyone's assumption that it will be settled and have no impact.

The MOCs leave for Xmas break in a few short weeks.

I see nothing that illustrates that either side will give in, which means the DOD will remain with a 1.1 TN cut or 110 BN a yr.


If that is the case, a lot has changed today from yesterday.

If last week you actually thought that they would compromise and reach an agreement then you have much more faith in our Congress than I do. I don't find this to be a surprise therefore I don't think anything changed.

I certainly think this will have an impact but I don't think there is anything I can do that is going to affect this.

 

[Jcleppe]

Been here for a while now, and I will say history repeats itself. Army is showing in small tell tale signs they are cutting. Less HSSP recipients, cutting ROTC cadets and reducing AD ranks, (nominally, but still cutting). AFROTC showed the exact same thing 3 yrs ago for 13.

Actually, the Army increased the number of AD slots for the class of 2012 over last years class.

I do agree it will be a rocky road ahead for a few years at least.

 

[scoutpilot]

A crappy commander can sink the morale of the unit, which sinks everything.

Think of it like football, the coach can make or break the team.

Or, think of it like the military...since he's a veteran of the Army.

None of us knows what will happen. But if cutting ROTC saves training dollars for the active force, I'm all for it.

 

[Jcleppe]

OK, I'm going completely Off Topic for this, forgive me my rant.

Looking at the DoD budget from a personal stand point can bring tears to your eyes. My last command was a procurement office. I still can't comprehend the waste. Even today it can make your head spin.

My older son has flown 3 times now during his time in ROTC. The first time was to Ft. Benning, we checked to see what a flight would cost using Expedia, the cost $285.00, the price the military spent $1,260.00. The next was to Ft. Bragg, same basic costs. He just recently was flown to San Diego for a physical for the Bone Marrow Donation he will be doing in Dec. The expedia cost, $183.00, the amount paid by the DoD Bone Marrow Organization, $985.00, and he will be flying there again in Dec. along with a companion for the same cost x2. The old joke about the military buying a $200.00 hammer is not far from the truth. I just wish those controlling the budget purse strings would start by using some common sense. Might be asking too much of them.

Scoutpilot,

I thought he was a veteran of the Air Force.

 

[Pima]

None of us knows what will happen. But if cutting ROTC saves training dollars for the active force, I'm all for it.

Believe it or not I am with you. If in March they cut our DS because they closed the UPT pipeline and diverted the funds to AD operational, I have absolutely no issue with it.

I would prefer our DS never serve if it meant you in the AD world had every asset available to you for your mission. AD members put their lives on the line every day, ROTC doesn't.

Have to say again, we tell posters the source doesn't matter, but some here are inferring that OCS is not equivalent to ROTC.

It makes me giggle because an SA cadet/mid would say the same thing about ROTC. You will hear the ROTC cadet/mid defend this decision as equal to an SA and demand respect.

Guess what that is how the OCS/OTS grad feels. If you brag that the source doesn't matter and the actions of an officer does, you can't say the military is harming their abilities by cutting ROTC.

Like I said, our kid is graduating, AFROTC, non-tech with a UPT slot. For all we know come March UPT slows down and non-tech grads are cut. Our child's dream and 4 yrs of AFROTC could end.

Scout is not trying to burst your bubble, he is trying to ground you and not blow smoke up your arse.

He is trying to illustrate that ROTC budget is part of the DOD budget and if something has to give, scholarships or LDAC will give for ROTC before they reduce training jumps for the 82nd or C status for a unit.

Sorry, but do the math.

 

[Pima]

Jcleppe,

What was amazing to me is that they allowed your DS to donate bone marrow. That is a surgical issue and can have repercussions.

Our DS is rated and that would be a big issue for DoDMERB.

They tag hs kids for issues that were not as intense as your DS's, but here he is for a very worthy cause going under the knife. Remember my Dad died from AML, so I am very appreciative.

I agree with you they spend BS amounts of money.

DS in the AF had to go to WPAFB for 3 days to get his rated physical. I get the going to an AFB that has flight med. However, explain to me why Bethesda only 40 miles up the road, where our President gets his physical was not qualified to do it? Why the flight docs at Andrews, 25 miles away, who are in charge of the health care for the AF1 pilots couldn't perform it? Instead he was flown to OH and spent 3 days there, with the AF paying his airfare, hotel bill, and per diem.

There is a lot of fraud, waste and abuse in the system.

 

[defense money honey]

patentesq. well said... regards, defense money honey...aka state of california congressional budget committee... im used to seeing money going out the door, and it's getting old!

 

[homewith4]

Jcleppe,
There is a lot of fraud, waste and abuse in the system.

An unbelieveable amount!!!!

The base leadership here requires housing & offices to keep their grass watered so it is "an attractive green color"-some lawns are quite plush. The Germans think we're nuts paying for water...just wait for it to rain.

DODDS teachers get funded trip back to the states every other year (active duty doesn't...we'll be here 5 years, by choice, with no funded trip). The housing DODDS teachers live in is well above the population they serve-and the active duty here live in what many stateside would consider mansions--5 & 6 bedrooms for a family of 4.

These are generalizations, not everyone here lives high on the hog...but in my peer group (my husband is an O5), COLA is used for trips & antiques. The amount given for utilities allowance (@$1000/month depending on the exchange rate), is seldom needed to cover utility expenses.

 

[bruno]

OK, I'm going completely Off Topic for this, forgive me my rant.

Looking at the DoD budget from a personal stand point can bring tears to your eyes. My last command was a procurement office. I still can't comprehend the waste. Even today it can make your head spin.
... The old joke about the military buying a $200.00 hammer is not far from the truth. I just wish those controlling the budget purse strings would start by using some common sense. Might be asking too much of them.

Sadly I am afraid that it is asking too much. The government is truly a disfunctional organization on most fronts and when it comes to financial management, you absolutely can include the military in that assessment.

As far as the impact of a declining budget- it will decline. Beyond that if you are speculating where it will decline specifically or how it will affect you personally, you are on a mission to depression. It will hit wherever it hits and neither Pima, nor Scoutpilot nor Patentesq nor Bruno can tell you what that really means for you personally. I will tell you unreservedly what a budget cut DOESN"T MEAN: It doesn't mean that the DoD and its Officer procurement programs will cease to exist. They will still be looking for new officers and if you don't get your appointment to USMA, you will still have a path to go on active duty. The odds may be different than they were a couple of years ago, but Jcleppe had this right in his earlier post- have a series of backup plans, then do your best, because that is all you can do.

 

[scoutpilot]

I thought he was a veteran of the Air Force.

He is a WP grad.