Yes, I know for the past decade many, many reservists were called up multiple times.
Yet, for the decade prior to that they weren't called up to the level now. We cannot look into the future and say they will or they won't. We are not psychic.
However, what we do know is that the DOD is going to take a hit and ROTC will likely take that hit along with the AD and retiree world.
So the question becomes where and how will they cut their budget? Do they continue to send 100% of the cadets to summer training? Do they change the regs to if you accept a scholarship you will go AD regardless of your OML? Do they offer even less scholarships? Do they cut staffing at the units?
My point about reservists was not intended to say they are not needed, but to illustrate that it costs money to send them to school via a scholarship. Correct me if I am wrong, but hasn't the Army said they are cutting their manpower needs by 27K troops for FY15 and 16. A yr that these cadets will becoming on line.
http://www.armytimes.com/news/2011/01/army-cuts-let-army-keep-soldiers-010611w/
Starting in 2015, the Army will begin to reduce the size of its active-duty force by 27,000 troops. However, until then, it will be able to maintain a force larger than 547,000. Under Gate’s plan the Army will cut 13,500 soldiers in 2015 and another 13,500 in 2016 and end up with an end strength of 520,400.
http://www.koaa.com/news/army-facing-cut-backs-and-getting-creative/
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta says the Army must be creative in figuring out what it will look like in a future of declining defense budgets.
Speaking Wednesday at the annual meeting of the soldier advocacy group Association of the United States Army, Panetta said the military will be smaller and will have to give up some of its capabilities and missions around the world.
But he said the service that has borne the brunt of the last decade of war also has become more adaptable, experienced and lethal. And he called on Army leaders to help him come up with new ideas and new ways of operating as the nation's budget and debt crises force cuts across the military.
Panetta only said this a week ago.
So I am just pointing out that it appears he is going to decrease the op tempo, and if he does than the reservists tempo will decrease too. Which brings me back to if ROTC has to cut deep is it fiscally intelligent to offer scholarships with no guarantee of AD service?
People tend to forget what the military was like in the early 90's which was the last time they were truly hit financially. Panetta is not for giving up weapons if he can find the money somewhere else.
Back in the 90's. People were cut constantly, AD O4 promotion boards hit an all time low, and were sped up so they can use the 2 and out rule. They also implemented SERBing. Scholarships basically became non-existent and many cadets, even non-scholarship were cut loose prior to commissioning. Those that were able to stay saw commitments owed increased...UPT went from 7 to 8 to 9 and landed at 10.
At the same time new hardware was still coming off the production line.
Nothing personal, but this is all about dollars and cents, and trying to maintain the quality level while reducing the costs.
The military is a business. It has budget constraints like any corporation, it is just that their business in defending or nation.
The biggest problem for the military is commitment time owed back. Nobody in 07 when offering scholarships to 2012 group thought that the economy would be in the tanks for those 5 yrs, thus the class of 07 commissioning are not leaving at the rate they predicted when they gave them scholarships in 03. Nobody in 09 when they created the FY10 budget expected that the DOD would be forced to reduce their budget by 10% while at the same time fight 2 conflict/wars.
Yet, that is where we are at now. We have too many AD members and that directly impacts ROTC and the number needed. We call it a pipeline for a reason.
Ironically, what will probably happen is what always has happened...they cut deep and a few yrs later when the economy improves they say OH CRAP, we need more personnel. That is when they start pumping in scholarship money, higher pay raises, bonuses, faster promotion rates, etc.
Look at 92/93...blood bath, and 5 yrs later pay raises for the yr groups they cut hard were @10% every yr for about 3 yrs.
This also happened in the 80's after Carter had hollowed the military, Reagan came in and threw money at the military...which is why we had the problem in 92 because obviously he didn't see the Gulf war or a recession occurring in 91, at the same point that many of these members were able to leave for the 1st time. Do the math...applied for the scholarship in 81 for 86 commissioning... 4 yrs later we had the war, and when it was done the economy tanked, which forced DOD to cut their budget.
The military could be classified medically as bulimic.
and it was so much harder to do college work and be at 3 pts sessions + lab once a week.....
I know this would not be a huge savings, but if the SMPs can raise their right hands to reserve or guard duty in order to get into the running for AD/OML system then the no pay back for national scholarship winners seems a bit wasteful. Okay, sorry for the rant...I feel better
