EA selection percentage prediction

Discussion in 'ROTC' started by tp92, Mar 21, 2014.

  1. tp92

    tp92 New Member

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    Hello all,
    Any predictions on the selection percentages for this year's EAs ?
    Please leave your prediction along with the reason as to why you believe your answer is correct.
     
  2. Capt. Ahab

    Capt. Ahab Member

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    I think the real problem you will run into is no one has solid information to base their decisions off of.

    Granted, there is one less max and VSP in place, but it's countered with no pay and a shorter Field Training. Pretty confusing.
     
  3. ERAUMattmom

    ERAUMattmom Member

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    It would be a lot easier if we knew how many cadets were up for EA :shake::shake::shake:
     
  4. Reaper

    Reaper AFROTC Cadet (AS400)

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    I think the national average will be around 70-75% just because recently commanders have done a lot more cutting themselves when it comes to cadets. In the past commanders didn't have to worry about cutting cadets or anything because almost everyone was selected for field training, but now they do a lot more of it. Here at my detachment we lost 17 cadets over the winter break and a lot of those were because our commander told cadets they didn't have much of a chance at field training. I'm sure it's the same at some other detachments too.

    All of these numbers I see like 20% or 30% selection rate are just ridiculous. There are probably around 2600-2800 cadets nationwide competing for EAs. I may be a little off, but I think that's a good guess. Just because there's one less max doesn't mean things are going to change a whole lot either. I don't know if there's actually any information out there on whether or not they are going to make max 1-5 slightly larger, but I'd believe they would at least make them slightly larger.

    This of course is all speculation from me, but I've always paid attention to the stats and how everything worked out in the past. I just think people will be surprised at how high the selection rate is going to be.
     
  5. ERAUMattmom

    ERAUMattmom Member

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    I agree with your estimate of 70-75 %.

    My guestimate at the end of fall semester was sitting right about 55%, but since then it seems like the detachments that had double the cadets looking for EA's as compared to last year lost ~25% or so of their 200/250's.

    Using those rough calculations...and depending how many cadets at each max we could cross our fingers real tight and hope for as much as 80%...but if I was to put the money I'm gonna win on March Madness on a percentage then it would be 72%....

    Just my best guess...

    Wait are we putting money on this????
     
  6. Vretro

    Vretro Member

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    Commander told FTP they were hoping for 65%.
    Could be as low as 40% for non-tech.

    Take everything you hear with a grain of salt; the board hasn't even decided how many they want to send.
     
  7. FlyingWildcatDad

    FlyingWildcatDad Member

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    WAIT,
    "Take everything you hear with a grain of salt; the board hasn't even decided how many they want to send." Vreto, do you know something we don't? Are you saying there will be a delay?
     
  8. Capt. Ahab

    Capt. Ahab Member

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    I can agree with the cutting. Our class at my Det went from ~75 cadets the beginning of this semester to ~40. We also had 5 cadets recently get ICSs. Which I believe is a good sign?

    Pima, don't you usually start a stats thread? I'm curious to see some of the stats.
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2014
  9. FlyingWildcatDad

    FlyingWildcatDad Member

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    For all the reasons already mentioned, I'm going to agree with ERAU and Reaper and say that the 70-75% is a good guess. I'm going with 73%, how will we determine the winner, closest without going over?
     
  10. ERAUMattmom

    ERAUMattmom Member

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    How do you know that the board hasn't even decided how many they want to send?


    For all the reasons already mentioned, I'm going to agree with ERAU and Reaper and say that the 70-75% is a good guess. I'm going with 73%, how will we determine the winner, closest without going over?

    Are our percentage guesses combined (all-inclusive)? meaning rated, tech, non-tech etc??

    By the way...

    Good morning good morning
    How are you today?
    Good morning good morning
    Three more days to EA
    Good morning good morning to you!

    How many rated? How many rated?
    I don't know. I don't know.

    Ok. Ok. My jingles need a little help...
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2014
  11. FlyingWildcatDad

    FlyingWildcatDad Member

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    ERAU, you crack me up! I thought the 73% guess without going over thing would get a rise out of you, LOL.
     
  12. ERAUMattmom

    ERAUMattmom Member

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    Flyer....

    I'm in California.....It's not even 6:00 I don't have a "real" job and I've been "Arose" not sure if that is a word....for over an hour...waiting for it to get light enough to walk my dogs.

    I can't even see the computer screen yet... I just hoping my fingers are hitting the keys correctly on the keyboard..

    LOL

    BTW my DS is going TECH...but his 3 room mates are all pilots.. You should see some of the gorgeous pictures he's got of the Daytona Speedway at night and the Castillo de San Marcos (17th century fortress) on their last flight up to St. Augustine.
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2014
  13. AlphaAlphaSigma

    AlphaAlphaSigma Member

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    According to my CoC the number of slots for Field Training has ranged around the 2200 number for the past several years. He expects it to either keep it the same this year or decrease it. This was before the announcement that Max 6 was cancelled and before officer accessions announced that they wanted cadets in FY14 to leave. Several weeks later when we are signing forms stating our intent to compete my cadre stated that since not a lot of people are taking the bite to leave voluntarily and with the Air Force downsizing they expected a couple hundred slots to be taken from Field Training. My prediction is at best there are 2000 slots available and at worst 1500 slots. I predict 2000 because last year's predicted officer accessions needs for FY16 was at 1700. If the needs stay the same as last year, I believe headquarters would correct the usual 2200 slots to make a smaller but proportional buffer that they have created several years before. At worst it would be 1500 because any smaller number would have warranted the cancellation of Max 5. Crunching in the numbers each max had an average of 366 cadets. 4 Maxs would have a total of 1464 cadets so looking at a financial standpoint the Air Force would find any way to reduce the costs of Field Training and if they intend to allow less than 1500 cadets into field training they would have also find it feasible to cancel Max 5 and still have the same size of cadets for each max as last years.

    The only problem for me is to estimate the cadet size. Last year was about 2400 cadets competing for enrollment allocations. In my detachment about 20 cadets were competing for enrollment allocations and we are classified as a large detachment. This year our size grew to 26 cadets competing. Now our large growth in size could have been an anomaly as our recruiting officer the year before made weekly recruiting events that even made his deputies want to throw him into a lake for making them work so hard (Their words not mine). Looking at posts from other cadets there seems to be a small increase of cadets from last year and most of the increase in size comes from large detachments. I would say an estimate of 2600-2800 cadets competing would be feasible.

    So the percentages would be:
    1500/2600 = 57.69%
    2000/2600 = 76.92%
    1500/2800 = 53.71%
    2000/2800 = 71.43%

    So the percentage range for me is 53%-77%. This seems to be the most realistic range of percentages considering that Air Force is downsizing while the class size increase from last year. Then again, AFROTC HQ may just have that Oprah vibe and give EAs for everyone!:biggrin:
     
  14. FlyingWildcatDad

    FlyingWildcatDad Member

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    After 8 am here in Tennessee and looks like it is going to be a beautiful sunny day. Enjoy walking your dogs as you finish your jingle!
     
  15. ERAUMattmom

    ERAUMattmom Member

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    Alpha

    Going with those average max numbers (2200/6) x 5 = 1833. Where is your percentages for 1833?
     
  16. FlyingWildcatDad

    FlyingWildcatDad Member

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    Alpha, great analysis!
     
  17. AlphaAlphaSigma

    AlphaAlphaSigma Member

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    1833/2600 = 70.5%
    1833/2800 = 65.46%
     
  18. ERAUMattmom

    ERAUMattmom Member

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    I just might revise my guestimate down to 68% since I can't go over!!!! and hope that I am wrong.
     
  19. Vretro

    Vretro Member

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    @Flying - yes, according to FTP from their counseling sessions, Cadre has said the board hasn't met yet.
     
  20. natehanibal

    natehanibal Member

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    Okay, as I am patiently waiting for an EA I am going to go with 80%. The higher the number of EA's the better the chance I have getting one. :shake:
     

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