SAFmanCan, thanks for that , but being married to a math major isn't quite what it's cracked up to be (my husband is a math major too, our poor kids ).
Being a math major has come in handy when having those "come to Jesus" talks with my sons regarding reality. One of the being "I realize that the USAFA is your top choice, and if you hear from them, you never want to deal with another college again. However, the statistics show that it is a highly competitive field, and you need to get other ducks lined up with a game plan." (I have a tendency to mix metaphors)
It would be nice if there was a bit more statistical data to go with such as
1) What percentage of applicants apply EA?
2) In total, after EA and Regular Admissions, what percentage of EA are offered positions?
3) What percentage of those offered positions have principal nominations?
4) What percentage of those offered EA have principal nominations?
5) What percentage of members of congress actually designate a principal nomination? (the 2 nominating members of congress for my son do not designate a principal nomination)
6) How much influence does your declared major play in your academy acceptance? (There are colleges out there which don't weight it much as applicants can change their minds. For the Air Force ROTC scholarships, intended major plays a HUGE role)
7) How many applicants with a congressional nomination get accepted and rejected?
I suspected if my son hadn't heard by January 1st, he wasn't going to be accepted EA. I calculated when he submitted his application for EA, his FIT scores, the timing of his nominations, his gpa, class ranking, act/sat, etc., etc., etc. He was notified late last week. I couldn't predict what not hearing yet means as there are too many variables. I am hoping for your son that it means he is accepted!
WMcCollum, flieger83, usafahopful:
As to the only 15-20 percent vs 50 percent EA offers, the deferment letter received indicated "Approximately 50 percent of all appointments will be offered during Regular Selection." If you look at nolifepilot's copy of the deferment letter, it is in there. That is the same letter my son received. So maybe 15-20 percent is EA and the other 25-30 percent is something else to account for the discrepancy? Perhaps the other 25 - 30 percent are principal nominations? I have no clue here. I am just throwing darts in the dark.
Thanks for all the replies!
Received a letter of deference today,
!
I received an email at 10:33 am EST, Jan 14th, that I had a message waiting for me in my online portal.
A huge thank you to MombaBomba for posting that info. It really made my spirit perk up. I was feeling pretty bummed about being deferred but I realize that I now have ~2 months to boost my GPA, class rank, and rack on awards! So now I'm excited to really polish my application!
My son also received the deferment to regular decision. He has 2 nominations, went on a sports recruiting trip, and is medically qualified. Having been a math major myself, I read the deferment letter this way..
Assumptions:
1) Applicants sent a letter of deferment are in the qualified candidates pool. Why bother deferring if not qualified?
2) Approximately the same numbers/statistics will apply as in the class of 2017
3) When the letter states approximately 50 percent of appointments will be made in regular decision, that means 50 percent of the appointments are now gone.
4) 2017 statistics: 9,706 applicants
6,967 candidate pool
2,277 qualified candidates
1,475 offers of admissions
Conclusions:
1) Roughly 738 appointments left and 738 assigned
2) Roughly 1,539 qualified candidates left competing for 738 spots (qualified candidates - appointments made)
3) Roughly 48 percent chance of acceptance (appointments left / qualified candidates left).
4) Before the EA announcements, the chance of acceptance was 65 percent for a qualified candidate (offers of admission / qualified candidates)
I don't see the USAFA playing about with reviewing an application a second time if it isn't deemed competitive or qualified in the first place. I don't think they have that kind of time on their hands. And I don't believe it wouldn't reject someone in EA if deemed not competitive or not qualified.
So the good news is that if you were deferred, I believe you and my son are most likely in the qualified pool and still have a roughly 50/50 shot of getting in. And if you received a letter that they are attempting to get a health wavier for you, then your odds are most likely significantly better. Why bother with all that paper work and bureaucratic stuff for a candidate if the USAFA wasn't really interested?
My son has also applied for Air Force ROTC, as he wants career Air Force. He has already been accepted in another college, and has his Air Force ROTC scholarship review later this month.
Good luck to all of you!
Were both/either of you principal notations?
Still no word on my portal, I'm going to be on edge all day.