Very difficult, if not impossible, to give exact numbers on scholarship cuts for 2016, as the services have only just begun to make their estimates and planning for next year's potential budget cuts. But notice the tone of my point above -- there is a VERY high potential that there will be cuts, we just don't know how deep the axe will dig as of yet.
But the best advice to give your friend about her son's chances on this point (and for every other parent or young man or woman hoping for a scholarship next year): the level of your competetion is completely our of your hands. What YOU can do, and how well YOU compete, is completely in your own hands. (i.e. don't worry about "the other guy", worry about yourself).
If you give it 100% of your effort, and then some, if you work at getting the best grades, maxing out your PT scores, studying theose few extra hours for the standardized tests, putting extra effort into extracurricular activities YOU like to do (an no, XBox and Facebook are NOT ECs!), and making yourself as competitive as you possibly can be... Then 1) you're only making your chances of getting that scholarship that much better, and 2) if you don't get it, you won't have the "I should have tried harder" regrets.
You all know what you need to do, what the boards are looking for in their candidates. You can get even more information about it here (there are so many here with some very sound advice on these matters); what you do with that infomration is up to you.
Don't sweat the "other guy", sweat what you can do to make yourself more competitive than "the other guy". Great life lesson, for so many things more than just a ROTC scholarship...
