Interesting Statistic

Discussion in 'Air Force Academy - USAFA' started by aggie83, Mar 9, 2010.

  1. aggie83

    aggie83 Member

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    Much has been said about the effect of the swine flu epidemic during BCT this past summer for the Class of 2013 and its effect on the fallout numbers (i.e. they would be lower).

    I looked back at the numbers at this time in the Class of 2012 vs. the Class of 2013 by looking at the past USAFA Parent Newsletters as well as the number of cadets my cadet told me showed up in CAMIS yesterday.

    Incoming cadets - Class of 2012: 1348; class size end of Feb. 2009: 1259
    Incoming cadets - Class of 2013: 1368; class size on March 8, 2010: 1268

    Seems about the same amount of attrition except for the Class of 2013 started out with 20 more cadets.

    So.. there is your trivia for the day :smile:
     
  2. Christcorp

    Christcorp Member

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    I think you might find however that the number that graduated BCT was larger for the 2013 class. A lot of cadets quit that first semester. That isn't uncommon. Also, if you go back a couple of years, you'll find that the 2012 class had one of the highest retention classes coming out of BCT. I believe that the average not making it through BCT was like 80-90. But the 2012 class was something like 47. So they started much higher than some of the previous classes. Your stats are definitely interesting. But I'd like to see the stats of 2010-2013, including how many started "I" day, how many finished BCT and made it to "A" day, then how many made it through the first semester and stayed.
     
  3. aggie83

    aggie83 Member

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    Sorry, but I don't have all of those numbers. I do know, however, that the Class of 2013 had 1306 at Acceptance Day so they lost 62 over the course of BCT. I also know, that when the grade reports for fall semester came out with rankings, there were 1295. Now there are 1268. A loss of 100 cadets.

    However, regardless of when they lost them, if appears they are pretty much, at this point, in line with the Class of 2012's attrition rate.
     
  4. PDub

    PDub Prospective

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    I think people that realize the Academy isn't for them will quit either way, with or without swine flu. If they are determined, they will still quit even after basic.
     
  5. Christcorp

    Christcorp Member

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    Agree totally with you all. But realize something. In a "normal" class in BCT, if you miss more than 8 days of training, (I'm pretty sure it's 8 days) for whatever reason, you are out of the academy and have to do it again next year. There are exceptions, but extremely rare. Well, how many basics from the class of 2013 missed more than 8 days of BCT training? Point is; they were ALL waivered. Remember, BCT isn't just go there, sleep for 6 weeks, wake up and become a cadet. The training in the 6 weeks has a purpose. I am definitely not saying anything derogatory against any 2013 cadet, but there's quite a few that didn't have the same type/level of training as those before them. So it's hard to say what the outcome of the class would have been if there was no swine flu or if there were no waivers.
     
  6. Lilly

    Lilly Member

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    Wow!!

    So you mean to say that the class of 2013 has so far survived what the cadre has thrown at them, including the swine flu, the first pandemic of the 21st century (which, if I'm not mistaken, was traced to one of the cadre who had been at another base on a summer assignment) and dealt with the attendant mind numbing psychological torture of isolation to the point that they were making decks of playing cards from discarded cardboard boxes and yet their overall attrition rate is really no different from the class of 2012?? :eek:

    Wow, 2013, you really are the best to be seen!!!!


    -standing by for burning coals to be heaped upon me...:shake:
     
  7. Luigi59

    Luigi59 Banned

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    Sure you are, we can read between the lines. :wink:
     
  8. xTxMANx

    xTxMANx Member

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    This is slightly off topic, but I was wondering if congress has said anything about the growing number of graduates. I know there was question about there being around 1000 graduates compared to smaller in previous decades. Does anyone think they will try to thin-out the numbers off offers or make graduating harder?
     
  9. Christcorp

    Christcorp Member

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    xtx; yes, the last few graduating classes indeed seem to be larger than traditionally. What, if anything congress will do about it? No one knows. We know what they can do, but WILL is a totally different situation.

    Luigi; no, you are wrong. I only mentioned not meaning anything derogatory, because there was bound to be some pessimist who would read into it something that wasn't intended. Well, you won the prize. Actually, I expected to circumvent someone other than yourself, but you're allowed to be the winner. :thumb: There is one thing I take great pride in. And that's trying to be very clear in what I write. Granted, it means being long winded many times, but I say exactly what I mean to. There are no hidden innuendos to ANYTHING I write. If you want to read it incorrectly, that's your problem. Complain to your high school. :wink:
     
  10. Lilly

    Lilly Member

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    I want second place!!!
     
  11. raimius

    raimius USAFA Alumnus

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    I'm not blaming anyone for getting sick, but they did miss a LOT of basic training--training that cannot realistically be redone without a medical turnback. Obviously, having a class with an extra 10% attition would screw things up, but neither alternative is good.
     
  12. CadCandMateus

    CadCandMateus Recent Grad

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    so i think CC is saying 2013 had it easy :D
     
  13. HNeedle

    HNeedle Member

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    that's what i think too, mateus.. i guess we'll just haveta make 2014 better this summer ;)
     
  14. packermatt7

    packermatt7 USAFA Cadet

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    I was there everyday of BCT. I don't know what you are all talking about :cool:
     
  15. Christcorp

    Christcorp Member

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    Come on folks. The topic of THIS thread is "Statistics". Don't make it personal. Don't make it about any individual cadet. Don't make it something it isn't. If you want to make it about the actual individuals, go for it. I've bowed out of threads before. There are plenty more discussions to talk about. Have at it. I'm strictly talking about numbers. It's not always about the individual.
     
  16. raimius

    raimius USAFA Alumnus

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    *my "they" was used in the very generic sense. (You knows, like "them peoples").

    It is what it is. Some members of 2013 missed some valuable basic training time, that can't really be made up. By now, us upperclassmen should have been able to correct for any deficiencies...if we've been doing our jobs correctly.
     
  17. Lilly

    Lilly Member

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    There were about 167 confirmed or suspected cases of H1N1 influenza at USAFA this summer with about 228 cadets put in "separated dorm" situations for some period of time during basic training.

    Wonder what their thoughts would be about some of the statements made on this thread? Especially here on the cusp of recognition.

    I hope USAFA is following/studying their progress. Would be interesting to see if their altered basic experience affects their performance at USAFA or down the line in their careers.

    Oh, and by the way, I'm not really in this fight, Lilly's boy never missed a day of basic. :thumb:
     
  18. fencersmother

    fencersmother Founding Member

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    I am recovering from H1N1 (one nasty virus, that)and I feel for those basics who were so sick, away from home for perhaps the first time, and then had the recovery at Jack's.

    But, I also know that my son's nose was broken and he didn't take off an afternoon during BCT. Everyone in my other son's tent at Jack's was sick, all at the same time, and they didn't get waivered. Both kids and their 4-degree year roommates still had Jack's Hack when we arrived for Parents Weekend!

    H1N1 definitely lead to a unique set of circumstances at USAFA.

    Where am I going here? Well, I guess I want the officers of the US armed forces to be the best, strongest, toughest, people they can be.
     
  19. Lilly

    Lilly Member

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    One thing to remember when comparing things like broken noses, sprained ankles, and Jack's hack, etc to H1N1 is that those others are usually not contagious (unless you're in a bar on Saturday night :rolleyes:). So if you're tough enough to say, "I ain't got time to bleed," then good on ya, carry on.

    H1N1 is contagious. That's a little different from an injury or the dust related bronchial irritation of Jack's hack. Now we know that at least so far H1N1impact has been so-so, but I would take you back to the mind set of last summer, the medical establishment was scared and scrambling to make enough vaccine.

    I remember last summer there were a some complaints about, "my cadet says they're ready to go back out, but they are keeping them quarantined!" Well, the problem is you can continue to shed that virus a day or so after all your symptoms have resolved. They wanted to be back at it, but USAFA wisely kept them separated.

    I'm not a military man, but I am a medical man. I think they did it just right. I applaud USAFA for how they handled the unique situation of the H1N1 outbreak in an atmosphere of uncertainty.

    If some here think 2013 was mollycoddled, well sorry, but it's done.

    I'm betting 2013 will be just fine. :thumb:
     
  20. PDub

    PDub Prospective

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    The number of suspected cases of H1N1 may have been exaggerated a bit, because the vast majority of basic cadets were sick with something during BCT. From my experience, I was sick about half of BCT, but never said anything. Many people that did go to iso were unfortunately trying to get out of training, while others were forced to go who had a lot of symptoms. Point is, there were not as many H1N1 cases as they thought, and definitely not everyone had to go to sick call and iso and miss a lot of training.
     

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