Iranian Students Storm UK Embassy

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by patentesq, Nov 29, 2011.

  1. patentesq

    patentesq Parent

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  2. bruno

    bruno Retired Staff Member

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  3. pennak

    pennak Member

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    Indeed. I remember that fisaco well. Somebody at No. 10 Downing needs to give Jimmy Carter a call and ask what to do.
     
  4. LineInTheSand

    LineInTheSand USCGA 2006

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    As embarrassing as the time a few years ago when the Iranian ship picked up the British boarding team in the North Arabian Gulf (wonder why we don't call it Persian Gulf?
     
  5. pennak

    pennak Member

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    And, as I recall, held them in captivity for two weeks while accusing them of spying. Nice folks these Iranians. Can you imagine them them with nukes?

    If they Brits did nothing then, I tend to doubt that they will do anything about the invasion of their embassy now (other than yell about how outrageous it is).
     
  6. 50stars

    50stars Member

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    Make no mistake about it, this was not a student-led demonstration. I'm thinking the riot was planned and supported by the Iranian government
     
  7. AF6872

    AF6872 Member

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  8. LineInTheSand

    LineInTheSand USCGA 2006

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    Of course, that's always what we did...

    Didn't the UK and France cut off oil exports too?
     
  9. pennak

    pennak Member

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    What would hurt would be to cut off the central bank of Iran from international banking. Brits didn't do that and neither did we. An embassy is the sovereign soil of that country. Invading it is legally akin to invading London. why anyone is tolerating this is difficult to understand. Does anyone really suppose that this regime is going to change its behavior?
     
  10. patentesq

    patentesq Parent

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  11. LineInTheSand

    LineInTheSand USCGA 2006

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    I believe current US leadership believes if you ask really REALLY nicely, they'll be nice too.... :rolleyes:
     
  12. patentesq

    patentesq Parent

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    LITS, we have be careful with Iran. Wrong move on our part, and then the oil markets get spooked and the price of oil spikes. This would have the effect of damaging the U.S. while enriching Iran.

    I'm not worried about our ability to act decisively if the time is right and circumstances warrant. We have a very good track record in that regard. But that comes at a cost as well, as you know.
     
  13. pennak

    pennak Member

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    patentesq. Wise words. I am likewise confident of our ability to act. I wish I was equally sanguine about our *will* to act decisively. A plot to kill the Saudi diplomat on US soil is way outside the bounds. Taking over the British Embassy is an act of war. Not even the Russians at the height of the Cold War thought to do or be linked to something like that. I am reminded of an incident in Leb. years ago when some fanatics caught and then killed an America CIA agent. Then they did the same thing to a Soviet agent. Soon thereafter the decapitated head of one of the fanatics' ranking people was delivered to their doorstep. No more Soviet agents were ever captured after that. These Iranians don't appear to play by any rules.
     
  14. pennak

    pennak Member

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    I saw that. It is only a warning shot without real teeth. When the crazy is bearing down on you with a swinging sword, how many warning shots do you fire before you risk losing your head?
     
  15. 50stars

    50stars Member

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    Seems like another regime change in the middle east, this one led by the Brits.
     
  16. Carter

    Carter Banned

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    Students are trying to become rebels this time :thumb:
     
  17. patentesq

    patentesq Parent

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    It appears that the US government has been closely following this thread and is now poised to follow pennak's advice: http://www.cnbc.com/id/45806878

     
  18. pennak

    pennak Member

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    Finally! :biggrin: I know that the Saudis have committed to making up any difference to the extent that Iranian oil is taken off the market. And, of course, if the Iranians try to close the Strait again, we may well see Praying Mantis II
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Praying_Mantis

    Hold on to your belt, this could be a wild ride.
     
  19. bruno

    bruno Retired Staff Member

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    Well I sure hope that it doesn't come to having to keep the straights open over Iranian opposition. That will be long, tedious and I think that the risk of spooking the markets is an understatement, and that will certainly put a damper on the US economy just as it seems like it is undergoing a small but sustained recovery.

    While the Iranians by any logical thought pattern will be more harmed than the West by an action to close the straights and therefore will refrain from doing anything crazy, but I am fairly certain that they don't look at much using a logical Western thought process, so they are truly a loose cannon.
     
  20. pennak

    pennak Member

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    Bruno, I hope rationality prevails in Tehran as well. I am not optimistic that the Iranian Rev. Guards and their upper political leadership is all that rational, at least as judged from our premises. Putting a hit contract on a Saudi diplomat is not a rational act from our prospective but they still did it. Still, cutting off their central bank will really hurt their ability to sell oil and to conduct commerce in other items. Inflation in Iran is already running over 10% and this will create shortages that will push that up, perhaps quite dramatically. Iran has a recent history of inflation problems. http://www.indexmundi.com/iran/inflation_rate_(consumer_prices).html

    Moreover, the price if common commodities in Iran, including gas, is subsidized by the government in an effort to buy legitimacy from the population. Cutting their income from oil will make that much more difficult. Still, they are committed to nuclear weapons and I don't think that there is much chance that they will abandon that pursuit no matter how much pain is inflicted on their economy. This situation could get much more dangerous this coming year.
     

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