Iranian Students Storm UK Embassy

Keeping the Straits open is an important aspect of the "Global Force for Good". They're international straits. The U.S. has had issues with Iran there before. Luckily there is a fairly definite U.S. presence in the North Arabian Gulf.
 
Actually, I think this posturing is a two-fer for Iran. They get to tweak the great Satan diplomatically AND get to raise the oil price (something the Saudis denied them in the last OPEC meetings) to meet their domestic funding problem.
 
goaliedad said:
Actually, I think this posturing is a two-fer for Iran. They get to tweak the great Satan diplomatically AND get to raise the oil price (something the Saudis denied them in the last OPEC meetings) to meet their domestic funding problem.
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Let's hope that it is only posturing. If the West cuts off the Iranian central bank they will have, for the first time, a real problem on their hands. Hence their threats. Hard to see how they can back down without losing face to the Great Satan. I hope the Fifth Fleet is ready
 
patentesq said:
Interesting article about the Asian response to the Iranian oil ban. After reading this, I'd say there is zero chance of Iran closing the SOH, in view of Chinese opposition to such action on the part of Iran. http://www.cnbc.com/id/45909506/page/2/
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I don't know. It seems to me that Iran has painted itself in a corner, where it must do *something* or lose face. The issue will be joined once the sanctions start to bite hard -- rather fuzzy. Or, more concrete, when and if the Administration flips Iran the bird and sends the Stennis back through the Strait (which, apparently, it is not going to do). In the meantime, American missile troops are practicing with Israel, the Brits send additional anti-missle ships to the Gulf while the Iranians make additional steps to enrich to the 60 percent --- the last step before getting to bomb grade. It is relatively quick to go from 60 to 90 + This feels like it is coming to a head and I don't see Iran backing down on any of this.
 
I disagree, I see Iran backing down.

Iran is led by someone that at best could be described as an ego-maniac, and even ego-maniacs get with the program when it comes down to air power and pummeling the country back into the 19th century with no electricity and communication.

"I'm A Dinner Jacket" cares more about his ego than his country, and he will not risk losing power after seeing the results for Iraq, Libya, Egypt and now Syria. He is like Chavez, Castro and Kim jong il. It is about personal pride.

He is all bluster.

Caveat: Israel.

Prior to Obama, our country has had a very close relationship with this country, and I have to say, I am not sure if Ahmadinejad would lob a missile at Israel we would step up in their defense.

If he did that would be where things IMPO become fuzzy.
 
Pima said:
I disagree, I see Iran backing down.

Iran is led by someone that at best could be described as an ego-maniac, and even ego-maniacs get with the program when it comes down to air power and pummeling the country back into the 19th century with no electricity and communication.

"I'm A Dinner Jacket" cares more about his ego than his country, and he will not risk losing power after seeing the results for Iraq, Libya, Egypt and now Syria. He is like Chavez, Castro and Kim jong il. It is about personal pride.

He is all bluster.

Caveat: Israel.

Prior to Obama, our country has had a very close relationship with this country, and I have to say, I am not sure if Ahmadinejad would lob a missile at Israel we would step up in their defense.

If he did that would be where things IMPO become fuzzy.
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Ahmadinejad is a nut, for sure, but the country is run by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards and they are more divorced from reality than Ahmadinejad.
 
What I see happening here is the EU and the US working out the details for the couple of countries in the EU (Spain, Greece, Italy) and the major US Allies in the far East (Japan, Korea, etc.) who are still getting Iranian oil, other alternaives (additional Saudi and Libyan oil and maybe even US Strategic Reserve if Iran starts firing rockets), leaving Iran essentially no market for its product except the Chinese, who if I read reports correctly are smelling blood in the water and negotiating deep discounts. I can't see us putting economic sanctions on China, but just about everyone else will play by our banking isolation of the Iranian State Bank.

Without a specific military action taken, it will be hard for Iran to start shooting at tankers and with declining foreign revenue and sources for refined petroleum products (they have to import gasoline, if you can believe that), their economy will at some point collapse - at least that is the current theory that is keeping Israel from trying to take out the Iranian nuke threat on its own. The local currency is currently not able to be exchanged for foreign currency because it is in free fall.

I'm not sure how long it will take for this regime to fall under these sanctions. It seems like the Iraqis never quite got around to toppling their government after years of sanctions, but they seem to have a lot of leaks in their sanctions regime.

It will be interesting and scary to watch, though.
 
Hey, WHO TURNED DOWN THE THERMOSTAT???

washington (cnn) -- the united states has moved to freeze assets of iran's government and financial institutions, saying they had engaged in "deceptive practices," president barack obama's administration announced monday.

An executive order signed sunday by obama freezes all assets of the iranian government and banks held in the united states, according to john sullivan, a treasury department spokesman.

Previously, recipients of iranian funds covered by u.s. Law were required to "reject" such transactions under sanctions first imposed in 1995, according to the treasury department.

"i have determined that additional sanctions are warranted, particularly in light of the deceptive practices of the central bank of iran and other iranian banks to conceal transactions of sanctioned parties, the deficiencies in iran's anti-money laundering regime and the weaknesses in its implementation, and the continuing and unacceptable risk posed to the international financial system by iran's activities," obama said in a statement to congress released by the white house.

Iran is under intense international pressure over its nuclear program, which the international atomic energy agency has said may be designed to develop a nuclear weapon.

The new sanctions send iran the message that "it will face ever-increasing economic and diplomatic pressure until it addresses the international community's well-founded and well-documented concerns regarding the nature of its nuclear program," the u.s. Treasury department said in a fact sheet on the new sanctions.

Even prior to monday's sanctions, dozens of iranian companies, financial institutions and individuals were under western sanctions related to the nuclear program. The united states has repeatedly sanctioned iranian banks, companies and individuals over the nuclear program, most recently in january.

Also in january, the european union announced a prohibition on oil imports from iran and banned trade in petrochemical equipment and technology, diamonds and precious metals with the middle eastern state.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/06/world/meast/iran-us-sanctions/index.html?hpt=hp_t3
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patentesq said:
Hey, WHO TURNED DOWN THE THERMOSTAT???
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This may be a case of too little way too late. The Iranians just stonewalled UN inspectors. Looks to me like they are determined push on with the nuke program, the rial exchange rate and economic hardship be damned. The official talk has become ever more bellicose. Israel does not have much of a window left and it does not appear that they trust the United States any longer. This is bleak.
 
Agreed that things look bleak at present. I think this is because we are not seeing what can happen if the Iranians get engaged in a military conflict. Personally, I don't think the mullahs have the intestinal fortitude to bet the farm on their military against outside forces (either US or Israeli). They seek the bomb to fortify their domestic position, as no outsider will mess with their pounding their own people once they have it.

From what I've been reading about the estimated time to create the material for bomb #1, I'm starting to think the economic sanctions are too little too late. Someone, cough, cough, Israel, cough, cough, is going to take out that site. Given the mahem in Syria, the airspace should be no problem to deliver the bunker busters. The question is, how good is Iranian tunnelling engineering? How many passes will it take?

And then does Iran take the step of declaring war against Israeal? The US as well? Strangely enough, that might be the best thing, as the Israelis will take the politically difficult targets (mullahs hiding in mosques) and we can mop up their military if they take the first potshot in the gulf.

If we are smart, we'll let them fight internally over who is to blame for getting their rear ends kicked instead of trying to invade. Perhaps they will be too distracted at that point to deal with a second pass of the green revolution revised?
 
goaliedad said:
Someone, cough, cough, Israel, cough, cough, is going to take out that site.
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From what I understand there is little love lost between the Arabs and Persians right now. The Saudis would likely applaud the move as they have secretly urged the US to "cut off the head of the snake" (I'm not sure, though, whether this was meant to encompass unilateral action by Israel). The other Arab countries are tied up with their own Arab Spring issues, and the US has a national election and a struggling economy to focus on. It's certainly an open question how Israel will interpret all this data, given that the Iranian nuclear threat is an existential crisis for them.

My gut says that Russia and China don't do anything if Israel strikes, so long as the US keeps its involvment to an absolute minimum. At least I hope that's the "plan" behind the scenes. However, the security council vote on Syria this past weekend was very instructive on the level (or lack thereof) of communications and coordination currently going on among these parties for the future of this region.

Challenging times.
 
patentesq said:
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Challenging times.
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old Chinese curse: May you live in interesting times. This feels like it may come to a head soon. We will then see how much the mullahs believe in their own propaganda. It appears that they think they can inflict damage on US warships through mines speedboats and shore based missiles. Maybe so. In war games a few years ago the blue forces got hit hard with such tactics. Hope the Navy was paying attention.
 
pennak said:
old Chinese curse: May you live in interesting times. This feels like it may come to a head soon. We will then see how much the mullahs believe in their own propaganda. It appears that they think they can inflict damage on US warships through mines speedboats and shore based missiles. Maybe so. In war games a few years ago the blue forces got hit hard with such tactics. Hope the Navy was paying attention.
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A very forceful response from Iran today. http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Glob...ed-and-isolated-Iran-boldly-bans-the-Simpsons

I hope we don't blink!
 
The Iranian mullahs were afraid the Simpsons would outpoll their preferred candidates, Beavis and Butthead.
 
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