Mom of AFROTC cadet at Field Training, Maxwell afb
- Thread starter TinLizzy86
- Start date
That's what I've heard as well. They said the Lt's with dates around the end of FY12 and beginning of FY13 should be firm. Supposedly they're starting to print our orders soon. Hopefully thats true but I've learned not to get my hopes up too much.
Unfortunately there's still a bunch of folks who still have TBD dates and will have to wait well into calendar year 2013.
The lesson here for current and future AF cadets is to plan ahead. Make sure you have a temp job lined up once you commission and don't go out and put yourself in debt with buying a new car, etc. It could be a full year before you get your first AF paycheck.
Pima
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- Nov 28, 2007
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Nick,
I agree with you. Too many cadets think that orders will not change and assume that they will be AD waaaaaaaaayyyyyy before that USAA loan starts to come due, (6 months after commissioning).
Even when you get your orders cut never believe it until your are there and they say welcome Lt. Smith we have been expecting you.
Like you, DS's date has changed 3 x. His 1st was May 10th 2012
Pretty hard to report when you have yet to commission, or even take your finals and graduate. His 2nd date was May 30th 4 days after commissioning and he is assigned to Laughlin AFB, TX. It is a 3 day per diem PCS from VA to TX. That meant he had to leave the next morning. His last is his current of 30 Sept.
We were actually expecting him to be pushed back even further, because like you he will be on casual status for about 6 weeks, than to Pueblo, than back to casual at Laughlin until his UPT class starts. A lot of money they are spending on him to be making coffee in the squadron snack bar. However, he was told the reason why is the end of the FY and they want to get them on the books.
We have a friend who graduates college(NCST) next yr and has applied for rated OCS. It will be interesting to see how that board works out regarding how fast they send them out. I would think it would upset ROTC grads, who are accustomed to going after the AFA, to find out that now somebody who didn't do 4 or 5 yrs (engineering majors) of ROTC will jump the RNLD in front of them too. I can only assume the way not to have them jump the line is to delay their OCS class far enough out that will allow both AFA and ROTC to be AD when they enter. However, if they do that, it can just clog the line up for 14. It is a no win scenario.
For rated candidates it might get worse still. If you watched the news today one of the headlines was airlines in a panic over pilot shortage. For yrs the commercial airlines have not been hiring, close to a decade, that means their personnel is starting to retire at a faster rate creating tons of openings. When this occurs the 1st two groups to bail the military are those hitting the 14 yr marker (bonus commitment is finished) and 20 yr marker (retirement). Problem here is they need these guys/gals to train the FNG's. If they don't have them than the AF has a pipeline issue. This will be compounded with the 35 coming on line operationally, which means they won't want to pull pilots from the 35 to UPT.
That is how the system works. When the economy is in the tanks, retention rate is high, when the economy is flourishing, retention rate is low. This is exactly what the AF went through in the mid to late 90s. They had to RIF, and SERB because the AF was bloated, unemployment was high, operational tempo had slowed down in 92. Than the economy came back like gang busters, and by 96/97 they were speeding up promotion boards, and handing out bonuses like halloween candy, it even got to the point they did the unthinkable...WSO bonuses! Than it got to stop loss. Thus, we come back full circle to now which is repeating history from 20 yrs ago.
The beauty for classes 12-16 they are going to be the classes where the AF gouged when they were in ROTC. By the time they get to O4 promotion their class size will be so small, that their promotion rate will probably be @80%, which is traditionally high, and that means unlike the current situation you won't be seeing alot of 2x and out! That's how it works ADAF. There is a ratio/percentage of Flag officers to Field, Field to Company, Officers to Enlisted. If they have too many Company they speed up and increase Field promotion boards to balance out the percentages. Too many field to company, which is the current scenario, they decrease the amount promoted and after the 2nd time passed over they show them the door to balance out the ratio. Perfect balance and boards are slowed down.
There is always a positive if you look for it!
I agree with you. Too many cadets think that orders will not change and assume that they will be AD waaaaaaaaayyyyyy before that USAA loan starts to come due, (6 months after commissioning).
Even when you get your orders cut never believe it until your are there and they say welcome Lt. Smith we have been expecting you.
Like you, DS's date has changed 3 x. His 1st was May 10th 2012
Pretty hard to report when you have yet to commission, or even take your finals and graduate. His 2nd date was May 30th 4 days after commissioning and he is assigned to Laughlin AFB, TX. It is a 3 day per diem PCS from VA to TX. That meant he had to leave the next morning. His last is his current of 30 Sept. We were actually expecting him to be pushed back even further, because like you he will be on casual status for about 6 weeks, than to Pueblo, than back to casual at Laughlin until his UPT class starts. A lot of money they are spending on him to be making coffee in the squadron snack bar. However, he was told the reason why is the end of the FY and they want to get them on the books.
We have a friend who graduates college(NCST) next yr and has applied for rated OCS. It will be interesting to see how that board works out regarding how fast they send them out. I would think it would upset ROTC grads, who are accustomed to going after the AFA, to find out that now somebody who didn't do 4 or 5 yrs (engineering majors) of ROTC will jump the RNLD in front of them too. I can only assume the way not to have them jump the line is to delay their OCS class far enough out that will allow both AFA and ROTC to be AD when they enter. However, if they do that, it can just clog the line up for 14. It is a no win scenario.
For rated candidates it might get worse still. If you watched the news today one of the headlines was airlines in a panic over pilot shortage. For yrs the commercial airlines have not been hiring, close to a decade, that means their personnel is starting to retire at a faster rate creating tons of openings. When this occurs the 1st two groups to bail the military are those hitting the 14 yr marker (bonus commitment is finished) and 20 yr marker (retirement). Problem here is they need these guys/gals to train the FNG's. If they don't have them than the AF has a pipeline issue. This will be compounded with the 35 coming on line operationally, which means they won't want to pull pilots from the 35 to UPT.
That is how the system works. When the economy is in the tanks, retention rate is high, when the economy is flourishing, retention rate is low. This is exactly what the AF went through in the mid to late 90s. They had to RIF, and SERB because the AF was bloated, unemployment was high, operational tempo had slowed down in 92. Than the economy came back like gang busters, and by 96/97 they were speeding up promotion boards, and handing out bonuses like halloween candy, it even got to the point they did the unthinkable...WSO bonuses!
Than it got to stop loss. Thus, we come back full circle to now which is repeating history from 20 yrs ago.The beauty for classes 12-16 they are going to be the classes where the AF gouged when they were in ROTC. By the time they get to O4 promotion their class size will be so small, that their promotion rate will probably be @80%, which is traditionally high, and that means unlike the current situation you won't be seeing alot of 2x and out! That's how it works ADAF. There is a ratio/percentage of Flag officers to Field, Field to Company, Officers to Enlisted. If they have too many Company they speed up and increase Field promotion boards to balance out the percentages. Too many field to company, which is the current scenario, they decrease the amount promoted and after the 2nd time passed over they show them the door to balance out the ratio. Perfect balance and boards are slowed down.
There is always a positive if you look for it!
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