get to your O-4 promotion board, pin on lieutenant commander or major, at 10 years, and you can ride out the next 10 years to retirement.
For the AF, that is not always true. If you are passed over for O5 twice and under 16 years, they can send you to a SERB. They did hold the board for O4s only a few years back. We had several friends told goodbye. Now if you had 16 years in as an O4 and passed over, they allowed them to ride it out to 20
And why shouldn't officers be guaranteed 20 yrs. If they do their job? Many of you know better than I... the moves, the deployments, the missed milestones with family, and indeed, the danger.
Besides the reason hurricane stated earlier there is another reason. Just like corporations they have an intended ratio that they want to keep regarding management. IE % of flag to field, field to company, within that there is a rank ratio.
~ Upon promotion to O4, you get a line number. To move that number you need an O5 to either retire or be promoted. For the O5 to move up they need an O6 to create a vacancy, so on and so forth.
~~ This is also why back in the mid 90s you saw O4 promotion rates as low as 60%, with differing years in grade for promotion. In 1993 They cut the field grade numbers, thus O3s and the year group marker was @11 or 12 yrs in. These were the guys that just returned for Gulf I. Many were released.
~~~ FFWD a few years, and the O4 board was meeting when they were at the 9 year marker with an 80-85% promotion rate. The reason why is what I stated earlier about ratios between ranks.
Personally, I don't think whether you change the system or not will really impact the members decision to bolt. It's the economy
If you look at the AF they offer the current retirement system to pilots. On top of that, at the 10 year marker they are offered 225K (fighters ---50% up front) if they agree to stay until 19, theoretically they of course will stay until 20. They also get 845 a month in flight pay. Plus, that nice big O4 pay jump. I believe that last year they had less than 25% takers. The reason why for them is that the airlines are finally hiring again.
~ It is important to understand that starting salaries for big commercial airlines start in the low to mid 40s. The 1st year or two they are basically on call. Will work holidays. Supporting my position that it is not how much money in the short term or long term that will factor into their decision, nor being away from the family.
I get, well, that's to be expected it's the AF, but the point is they weren't going to stay no matter what the financial aspect was, but when the airlines weren't hiring they were staying and more than happy to take those bonuses.
They are also having problems with the RPAs, so it is not just manned airframes. They are losing over 300 a year and can only pump through @285. The RPAs are also not taking the bonuses either.
Finally, I think anyone that enters the military knows there will be missed milestones and deployments, plus moving every few years. It does wear on you, and some will use it as a reason to leave, but I believe that is more tied to the spouse. There are some spouses that finally says ENOUGH. In turn, the member says goodbye, hence, again it means the retirement system means very little to them unless, as others have stated if they are in the 15 year range.
IMPO, cadets and candidates should not even think that this system is what they will be getting. They have yet to even commission. I am old, but I remember back in the late 90s the AF played with the retirement system, and it was applied to specific year groups. At one time they bantered around if the member(certain year groups) retired at 15 they would get retirement pay at a much lower rate if they voluntarily left. They also tweaked the system for those retiring at 20 or above. I can't recall the exact details, but basically it went from 50% of your pay to what is now called the High 3, where they now average the last 3 years of your pay and you get 50% of that.
~ Old system it would be for an O5 50% of 8281 at 20. New system it would drop be cause at 17 you would only be making 8053. It does n't seem that the 40 bucks a different a month is not alot, but at 42, with a life expectancy of 75, that 500 a year adds up over time.
If they decide to change it again to something like the High 3, but call it high 5. Than you are talking a lot of money the military will save in retirement pay.
My DS is only an O2, but i you ask him about what he expects will be his retirement system that he will be eligible for if he decides to stay, he will say he expects that upon making O4 whatever is the system will be what he will retire with since he would be field grade. IOWS, he doubts the high 3 will be his system.
~ This is a kid that came in with the intention to do 20. He flies the C130 so they have a different bonus system. It 125K, but it is for 5 or 6 years, and than he can sign for another 125 which will bring them out to 20-21 years. He can take 1 bonus and bolt. It is something he is already thinking about because he can pocket that bonus, get a lower line number with the airlines compared to those that stay until 20. By the time that 20 yr with retirement pay joins, he will be the same age, making the same, if not more, and now a left seater.
