Nomination chances

Discussion in 'Military Academy - USMA' started by Fergusnr, Jan 13, 2016.

  1. Fergusnr

    Fergusnr Member

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    What percentage of candidates that are triple qualified and receive Congressional Nominations are accepted?
     
  2. Cerberi

    Cerberi Member

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    Some but not all

    Every situation is unique

    Fast
    Neat
    Average
    Friendly
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    Good
     
  3. FalconsRock

    FalconsRock Parent

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    Are you trying to distinguish between those with congressional nominations and those with other than congressional, i.e. Presidential, VP, military affiliated etc.? Short answer is there are 535 MOC (100 senators and 435 representatives). Each MOC can nominate 10 candidates per slate making the maximum pool 5,350 candidates with NOMs. Of those 5,350 candidates, 535 will be fully qualified and appointed via a congressional nomination, provided every single MOC nominates their max of 10 per slate. If they are not 3Q they will not receive an appointment and they will choose the next 3Q with a NOM. Some less competitive states do not nominate any, and some nominate less than ten. So, in a perfect numbers world, 10% of candidates that are triple qualified and receive a congressional NOM are appointed. I think I got that right, if not, I am sure someone will "politely" correct me.;)
     
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  4. Cerberi

    Cerberi Member

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    But in 'round 1' you only compete with your slate and if your MOC ranks his slate and someone higher ranked than you is 3q - then 'round 2' is the 'national pool'

    To be in the national pool, you must be 3q to be considered and demographic concerns can/do come into consideration as well as ability to contribute to sports programs.

    Somewhere there is a thread that references a law that says the first X number from the national pool must be taken based on their overall score.

    So if you are 3q with a nomination, you are one highly qualified individual, but there are more people that fit that description than slots available.

    You are in the game and that is something special, but you just have to remain patient.

    No one on this board knows for sure and everyone on this board wishes you the best
     
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  5. FalconsRock

    FalconsRock Parent

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    Ah, yes. The national pool. There are definitely some 3Q candidates with congressional NOMs that receive appointments there too, just not on the same congressional slate. I knew there was something I had missed. Thank you Cerberi.

    Perhaps an easier question to answer might be what is the percentage of candidates that are 3Q and accepted but do not have a congressional NOM?
     
  6. Fergusnr

    Fergusnr Member

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    You can only attend with a nom though, right?

    (Edit) I missed the part about congressional. So are you talking about the percentage of candidates with the DoD, Presidential, VP, nominations?
     
  7. Cerberi

    Cerberi Member

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    President has 100 nominations fill 100 slots (he has no limit on the # of nominations but only 100 actual slots)
    VP gets 5? Nominations per SA not sure of appointments
    Superintendent gets 50 appointments
    MOCS get 5 slots per 4 years

    The hard numbers are published....

    But your situation is unique to you. So quantifying the % won't make the wait less stressful

    Congrats on the nomination and being 3q and most importantly being willing to serve when you have countless other options
     
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  8. Cerberi

    Cerberi Member

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    The only non-nomination source for an appointment is if your parent is a Medal of Honor recipient

    Someone has to nominate you otherwise
     
  9. Fergusnr

    Fergusnr Member

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    Thank you for the well wishes Cerberi! I have one last question - what is the superintendent nomination?
     
  10. Cerberi

    Cerberi Member

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    I may be wrong and the Superintendent of cadets may have 0 nominations, but he/she has 50 appointments than can count against his/her slate.

    You would have to research that or someone else can answer

    I have read that many times the Sup's list is used for recruited athletes, but not certain
     
  11. FalconsRock

    FalconsRock Parent

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    It is my understanding that the Superintendent appoints candidates from the national pool, and all of those candidates must have a nomination, unless of course, as Cerberi said, they are the child of a Medal of Honor recipient.
     
  12. FalconsRock

    FalconsRock Parent

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    Fergusnr - there is a sticky at the top of the Nominations forum that gives very detailed explanations about the nominations and where they fit into the appointment process. It is worth the read.
     
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  13. Cerberi

    Cerberi Member

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    Without an LOA or a 'primary' or a ranked slate with you being ranked #1 and being 3q, your process becomes an interesting set of flow charts and if/then statements

    It's a nerve wracking adventure and the more you know about who you are competing against - the more stressful it becomes because he scored a 35 on math but isn't an Eagle Scout but you score 'only' a 34 and are an Eagle Scout (just an example).

    It's as fair as it can be but it isn't because great candidates get left out.
     
  14. 1mountaintop

    1mountaintop Member

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    Okay first post on forum for me. I am not sure but I believe the question is more basic as to what are the general chances at this point in the process for an applicant with a congressional nomination in hand and is 3Q? I have thought of this myself given my DS is in this group without an LOA. The number of LOAs is unknown but represent slots my DS will not be getting thereby decreasing chances. Assuming the LOA number is not very large (big assumption) you can look at past data posted above under what are my chances. The latest admissions for 2018 listed 4049 nominations given in total. Only 2424 of that number were determined to be Qualified, I am assuming medical being the biggest disqualifier. From that number 1,223 were admitted. Since most of nominations are congressional I would say you have a 50% chance at this point. In addition, I believe a small amount, maybe 300, are offered but chose to attend an Ivy or other SA so you chances may go up a bit hopefully negating those with LOA's.
     
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  15. 2020HD

    2020HD Member

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    Your geography, gender, and race comes into the odds as well. 1mountaintop lays out the macro math well: in 2018: 4049 nominations > 2424 of them were 3Q’d, > 1,223 admitted. So the odds at a high level look like 50%... but your personal odds could be much higher, or lower. Recruited athletes and academic students with LOAs have odds of nearly 100%, and if legend has it correctly that’s around 300 a year. So that number comes off the 1,223. Then applicants with Principal Nominations have odds of nearly 100%, and that number (whatever it is) has to come off the 1,223. Then take off another roughly 500 off the 1,223 if you’re not an under-represented minority or a woman.

    http://www.usma.edu/news/Shared Documents/Class of 2019 to Enter West Point.pdf

    Suddenly there might still be 1,500 3Q’s with nominations and only 500-700 slots still open and the odds are not 50% anymore. We could go on and on… If you are in a competitive district and Admissions ranks you as the number 4 of 10 walk-on-water slated applicants in your district in terms of Whole Candidate Score, your odds are lower. But maybe you’re the number 1 in a remote congressional district, and even though your Whole Candidate Score is lower than #2, #3, and #4 in the competitive district, you get the appointment and they don’t. And maybe #4 ends up getting in anyway as a "top 150" on the National Wating list. You just don’t know. And no one here knows, either; as they say on this site, don’t try comparing because you’ll go nuts worrying about something that is not in your control. Be patient. If this is what God wants for you to happen, it will happen.

    Everyone who gets an appointment deserves it. They are all among the finest youth in our country. But not everyone who deserves an appointment gets one, if that makes sense. The size of the class is constrained.
     

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