The thing to remember is what is coming down the pipeline today, may not be what will come down in 4 yrs from now.
The only guarantee you have is that the AF will always give 1st to the AFA, with the largest number. Nobody here can tell you that the class of 13, 14, 15, or 16 will have around the number that 10 and 11 got.
You should never attend the AFA only to be a flier. You attend because you want that education and lifestyle.
There will never be a promise that you will get UPT, or a specific type of airframe...Fighters, Bombers, Heavies.
Go back to 93, after the Big RIF. Cadets who entered in 89 did not think the UPT pipeline would be shut down so drastically that top UPT grads were offered FAIP or Buffs. !5's and 16's were not coming down.
It is great to have this dream, and do everything in your realm to obtain it, BUT, if your only dream is to fly and not to serve in the AF...wearing the blues, not the bags, than maybe you should re-think why you want to go to the AFA.
For example:
~ 3 yrs ago, the class of 12 didn't hear a whisper of force re-shaping, but here it is now.
~ 2 yrs ago the class of 13 didn't hear about RIFs, but they are doing it.
~ 1 yr ago the class of 14 didn't see less apptmts coming down for 15, yet only in the past month or so they have announced the AFA will have smaller class sizes for 15 and 16.
That is just the past 3 yrs!
Have the dream of flying, but accept the fact that the AF controls part of that dream and there is nothing you can do about that fact.
Go because you want to wear the Blues, not because you ONLY want to wear a bag.
OBTW, that gpa at the AFA will matter if you get the UPT slot...traditionally the good news is, if you want it you got it. Bad news is when you hit UPT your instructors do not care if you are a ring knocker or not when it comes to grading/busting you on a flight.