Odds of getting in?

Discussion in 'Air Force Academy - USAFA' started by ipodmypod300, Dec 13, 2015.

  1. ipodmypod300

    ipodmypod300 New Member

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    I assume you people are more experienced than me at knowing who qualifies for a service academy and who doesn't, so I'm hoping you can at least give me an idea. I just finished my application to the United States Air Force Academy and since I won't hear back for months I'd like to get an idea.

    So for starters, academically my grades are good, A/B average, taking AP physics and honors classes all throughout high school along with APUSH and AP Gov. 3.7 GPA, 34 ACT, 2000 SAT, blah blah blah. So that's all good and well.

    Extracurricular-wise, I play baseball, hockey, show choir and many other choir related things, and participate and organize charity outings and things at school. So that's not bad.

    However my biggest question is about the CFA. First time I took it was awful, 72' BB throw, 8 pull ups, 37 push ups, 65 sit ups, 8.9 shuttle run and an 8:15 mile because of cramps. However, I received a letter asking me to retake the CFA, which I did today and got a 90' BB throw, 10 pull ups, 55 push ups, 82 sit ups, 8.9 shuttle run (again, ugh), and a 7:05 mile. It was an improvement but would that be enough to pass?

    I've already received my congressional nomination from Tom Emmer and conducted my ALO interview so everything is done, now just a waiting game.

    Any idea as far as odds? Honestly anything would help lol
     
  2. Christcorp

    Christcorp Member

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    When you can tell us how well your competition has done on their application, then we'll be able to tell you "your odds".

    Not trying to be flippant. But in the beginning, there will be approximately 12,000 interested people. That will work it's way all the way down to about 1,200 that they will give appointments to. Unfortunately, no one here can tell you how all the others have done. Therefor, no one can tell you how good your chances are. Click on the link in my signature block and check out the academy brochure. It will give you the "AVERAGE" scores for the average appointees.

    Some of what you've posted about yourself is above the average. Some of what you posted is below the average. But again; we have no idea what your competition looks like. Sorry; but you're not going to get a percentage number or anything similar saying what your chances are. Best of luck; and make sure you're applying to a number of other colleges/universities. Including ROTC. Always have a backup plan.
     
  3. ipodmypod300

    ipodmypod300 New Member

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    I figured, obviously that's understandable lol I just wish I could have an idea but I'll just have to wait :/
    And as far as a backup plan, I've been accepted to U of MN Twin Cities, Montana State, and UND, and am finishing my application for a scholarship to AFROTC, so that's in order. I'm far from banking on getting in to USAFA, and I understand I have a pretty decent chance of getting rejected and I'm ok with that. Just staying hopeful :)
     
  4. Maplerock

    Maplerock Proud to be an American

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    In my opinion your grades are middle of the road, and your CFA was unimpressive.

    If you're an underrepresented minority it might be enough, but if not, realistically it's a longshot. One never knows until it's over.

    As was mentioned, your competition comes into play. Most admitted will have better stats, so what do you have to offset your weaknesses?
     
  5. MN-Dad-2016

    MN-Dad-2016 Member

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    Hello fellow Minnesotan! Your ACT is more than good enough. Sports look decent assuming your are a varsity athlete in both BB and hockey. I'm guessing you are taller and those pull-ups are not so easy for you. Buy a pull-up bar and work on your pull-ups some more. Life will be easier at the Academy if you work on your mile time now too. But I don't think your CFA is going to be a showstopper.

    Getting a 3.7 GPA in Anoka, Coon Rapids, Andover etc is probably your "weakness" (it's not the strongest district in the state) and 3.7 COULD be below average from that area. Your odds will depend on how many MN hockey players the USAFA coach needs. LOL.

    Say high to Tom Emmer if you get to meet him. He is a great guy. If you get in or have doubts and have questions, PM me. You can talk with my son. My DS was nominated from Emmer's predecessor (Michelle Bachmann). I wish you the best of luck! (Oh.. Pick UofMN for plan B.) :)
     
  6. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    Not to get off topic, but you already missed the 1st AFROTC board, the next one is just a few weeks away...almost finished may mean you will miss that one too. Everytime you miss a board it means there will be less money in that pot. If you miss the Jan. board than I believe the only one left is Mar.
     
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  7. Falcon A

    Falcon A Member

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    Your ACT is very good. The question is how does the rest of your record rack and stack against others in your state and Congressional district. Here is why. Each year about 4000 of the 8000-12000 applicants to each SA end up with a nomination and about 2400 end up being qualified academically and in physical aptitude. Each year USMA, USNA, and USAFA each have about 1200 slots for an entering class. Approximately 500 of those slots go to the Principal Noms. Approximately 200 go to recruited athletes, prep school and those with LOAs. If you aren't in one of those 2 groups (Principal Nom or recruit/LOA) you are competing across the country for one of the remaining 500 slots, and the Service Academies will pick those qualified candidates that meet their needs (I.e., geographic diversity, ethnic/gender diversity, and other goals), in order to best represent the make up of the country and the military. Everyone selected will be "qualified" but that doesn't mean everyone selected is the "most qualified". Just the way it works . . .
     
  8. Christcorp

    Christcorp Member

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    Just a little clarification. Falcon A is pretty much correct. Just don't confuse the word "PRINCIPAL Nomination". Very few representatives and senators RANK their nominees. In other words, have a PRINCIPAL Nominee. The vast majority simply present the academy with their SLATE of 10 names, and tell the academy "PICK ONE". The reps and senators do have the OPTION of ranking their nominees and having a PRINCIPAL nominee. In which case, assuming the nominee is qualified, the academy has no choice. They MUST take that individual.

    But Falcon A is correct in the numbers. Approximately 500 appointments will come from the representative's and senator's SLATES of 10 names. There are also the 200 others he mentioned. But, there are also others too. Up to 100 more appointments come from Presidential Nomination and a number of others that are military related; e.g. ROTC. But after all of these are appointed; around 800-850, the remaining 350-400 will be from the NATIONAL POOL, which are all of the remaining individuals with nominations that haven't received an appointment. So you'll be competing with approximately 2000 for the remaining 350-400 slots. Best of luck.
     
  9. brovol

    brovol Member

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    I assume by " principal nomination" you mean MOC slot, whether principal or competitive?

    I thought USAFA admits less than USNA and USMA. Thought it was about 1000?

    Not trying to quibble. Just want to confirm.
    Edit: oops. Didn't read through other posts. Doubled up on MOC point. Sorry.
     
  10. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    USAFA usually offers @1350 appointments with an expectation of @1100 to report on I day
     
  11. Falcon A

    Falcon A Member

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  12. Falcon A

    Falcon A Member

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    By "principal nom" I mean the #1 out of 10 ranked candidate from a MOC slate as determined either by the MOC or the SA.
     
  13. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    Principal is only awarded by an MOC, not the SA. If the MoC does not use principal than the candidates will be seen as being on a competitive slate, where the SA determines who is number 1. It is a term tied to the type of nomination that the candidate has on record when they meet the board. It has nothing to do with them winning the appointment...i.e. being deemed number 1 by the SA WCS.
     
  14. brovol

    brovol Member

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    So just a little less. Why is USAFA less? Just size of the service branch?
     
  15. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    No. It comes down to the fact ALL SAs have a requirement by law that they do not max out over 4400 cadets/mids. For USAFA they have decided that @85% will show up on I Day,thus the number for appointments is targeted around 1350.
    ~ IE: USNA may have a higher or lower appointments offered because they too know statistically from historical data the % that are offered an appointment compared to the number that report for I Day.
    ~ USMA may have more appointments this year compared to USAFA because they may have more room at the Inn. See the 4400 max. If the USMA has 1100 graduating in May, and USAFA has 900, assuming that they were already at 4400 this academic yr., than USMA would have more slots available for 2020 just because of that 4400 magic number and the amount that would commission in May.
     
  16. Stealth_81

    Stealth_81 Super Moderator Moderator Founding Member

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    The 4400 figure is outdated. The current cap is 4000, which it has been for about 3 years now since congress mandated the draw-down. Reference Falcon A's link above.

    Stealth_81
     
  17. TenCTex

    TenCTex New Member

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    Pima what is the reason a MOC wouldn't use a principal nomination if he or she are able to?
     
  18. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    Because they believe that USAFA knows better regarding the selection process.
    Principal ties the SAs hands.
    ~ If that candidate is 3Q than they will be offered an appointment and charged to the MOC.

    Think of every year the SA is making a new 1300 piece puzzle without looking at the box 1st to see what the puzzle will look like in the end.
    ~ The MoC that does competitive would be the pieces that they can use in multiple ways. The Principal means they are the outer edges only. You can't complete a puzzle if the only pieces you have are the edges.

    My cynical side now. MoCs like to use competitive over principal because it washes their hands clean of why candidate Jones got it over candidate Smith. Assume candidates Jones parents donate to their political party or campaign, Smith doesn't. Or assume it is the Sen. list and candidate Jones is from their hometown.

    Or it could be that they are from a state like VA, CA, or TX where the MoCs talk so they can spread the wealth. It is hard enough to figure out when they have 700 candidates, and many asking for a nom to 3, but now they have to look at which MoC did Principal too, on top of the candidates with an LOA .
    ~Eric Cantor in VA did principal. However, he was also notorious for only giving the principal to 2nd timers.
     
  19. RedDragon

    RedDragon Member

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    Your ACT is very impressive and I am pretty sure your 2nd CFA will pass. It really is about the "Whole Candidate" when it comes to most applicants. I have seen one with 33 ACT not get in and one with a 28 from the same high school (my son) get in. What did my son have that was special? Nothing really stood out as he was not a recruited athlete and we are in a fairly competitive district that had 4 appointees his year. He was well- rounded....good grades, top 5% of competitive class, 9 Varsity letters in 3 sports, captain of two of those teams and maxed 3 or 4 events on the CFA. He was just not the best at taking the standardized tests. He had to work hard for his grades in high school and this has served him well at the Academy. Good luck to you....
     
  20. F15DOC

    F15DOC Member

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    I will stick my neck out, I think you are going to get an offer, good grades, spankin hot ACT and plenty good enough CFA.
    You already have a nom...
    Pack you bags and get ready for that high altitude...
    Most of the posters on here are downplayers on the posters here, granted - I have less experience than many, but regardless...
    Good luck, and I am officially the first to say congratulations :)
     
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