Official 2016 AFROTC POC Selection Process Thread

Discussion in 'ROTC' started by derek44, Feb 4, 2016.

  1. derek44

    derek44 Member

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    Nominations for the 2016 PSP will continue through the second week of February. HQ has removed the "rated-intent" EA board. The two main boards will for technical major and non-technical majors. Presumably, the tech board will board first followed by the non-tech board. Once the tech major nominees have been exhausted, they will consider non-tech majors. Because the "rated-intent" board will not be meeting, selection rates for individual boards will be higher for absorbing EAs that otherwise would have been awarded to the "rated-intent" board.

    However, overall selection rates for the 2016 PSP will be on par with last year's selection rates. Despite the increase in OTS accessions over the past year, AFROTC accessions will not significantly increase. "The Air Force does not plan to... increase the number of officers brought on through ROTC" (Source). In 2015, there was an overall 85.8% nation wide selection rate with 1987 cadets selected out of 2317 eligible. Averages across the board were: CGPA: 3.305; SAT Equiv: 1235; Avg PFA: 96.55.
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2016
  2. Joekenny

    Joekenny Member

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    FYI: FT EA nominations are due from cadre 1 Mar, board meets 14-18 Mar, results should release 25 Mar.
     
  3. noketchup

    noketchup Member

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    I feel bad for the guys who go with aviation degrees that are considered non-tech, seeing as that is usually the harder board to get accepted on.
     
  4. Blaise729

    Blaise729 New Member

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    Any ideas on what percent of non-tech majors will get selected?
     
  5. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    Just a true guess, but if the overall rate is 86%, and if it follows from years past than you can expect that it will be in the mid 70%. Usually there is @10-15% differential between tech rates and non-tech rates with tech rates being above the national avg. So if you assume that 86% is overall, and tech is around 90% ( I believe last year tech rate was @93%), than you are looking to get that avg non-tech has to be below the 86%.

    The one thing that nobody knows is how many tech majors are up for SFT. The higher the pool the greater the impact on the non-techs.

    Additionally, just because 2015 had an 85% rate, does not mean from what I gathered is the rate they are looking at for this year. They are looking at a pure number. IE @2000 cadets. So, if they only have 2100 up for selection the rate will be higher than last year, but if the pool size is 2500 than the rate will be lower. In 2014 the rate was @58%, but the stats were the same (cgpa, SAT, PFA AND number of cadets attending SFT) The big reason the rate was dramatically lower than last year was because the pool size for 14 was dramatically higher.

    Until you know the number of cadets being boarded nobody should think anything either way regarding percentiles. I have seen the percentage vary almost every yr like a pendulum swinging. 90+% for 2013, 58% for 14, 90% for 15. What has never swung like a pendulum was the amount of cadets selected. It has always been near the 2000 marker.

    Regarding the AF Times article what was note worthy to me, and something you can see on baseops.net is the AF is pushing more through OTS than they have in years past. Now what does that mean for AFROTC cadets, nothing right now, because they are keeping their numbers steady, BUT it may mean a lot next year when they go up for the rated board.
    OCS runs 2 boards each time. Rated and non-rated. Both occur in Jan. and July. In essence, 4 boards total. Now, depending on how many are selected for rated than it can impact how many rated slots will drop for ROTC.
    ~ UPT bases are running at 100% capacity right now. They can only push through @1150, USAFA usually drops @500+. It has always been true for them...if you want a pilot slot, and you keep your nose clean, plus medically qualified, you will get it. Never has been true for AFROTC. Rumor is AFROTC will drop @10% less pilot slots this year compared to last year. Just thinking that is occurring because as stated in the article, Big Blue's selection rate went from 50 to 66%, thus more slots dropping to OTS than in previous years because they still only can push through the same number at the rated schools. Hence, they have to take from somewhere to give to OTS, and it isn't going to be USAFA.
    ~~ FY2016 OTS boards can mean the selectee, if in college will graduate in 2017. The same commissioning year as those going up from AFROTC for the rated board this year.
    ~~~ My friends DS applied for the July OTS board his rising senior year in college. He got UNT. Reported to Maxwell in July after graduation. Just sayin...if HQ is already saying that they already know they will take 1100 on this year, and they have a board this summer for rated, they are going to hold off some of those slots for that board, which in turn impacts the ROTC cadets.
     
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  6. Guns

    Guns Member

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    Just want to say that last year, when I was still debating whether I would separate from AD and come to ROTC or not (because of the numbers), this board helped me a lot with the decision! I saw the numbers roll in and it made me feel confident enough that as a Non-tech major, likely pursuing a non-rated EA, I can work hard enough to get one versus being a victim of the numbers. I want to wish all my fellow 200s good luck and I hope to see you at Maxwell!
     
  7. derek44

    derek44 Member

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    @Pima that is just not the case. In 2014, 2650 cadets were nominated and 1590 were awarded enrollment allocations. In 2015, 1987 cadets were awarded enrollment allocations. That is nearly 400 cadets more.
     
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  8. Non Ducor Duco

    Non Ducor Duco I am not led, I lead

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    ^ This is true. 2014 had about the same amount of cadets applying as they do every year (maybe had a few hundred more than in 2013, not that significant). The difference was the sequester hit us hard. 2013 was average, 2015 had larger selection percentage, and 2014 had 400+ fewer slots given out.
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2016
  9. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    @derek44

    2014 was unique because of sequestration. They were the bump in the road. If I recall correctly, not only did sequestration hit SFT, but HQ AFROTC also said that year 400s could walk, no harm/no foul, even if they were scholarship. Commissioned grads that had yet to report were also allowed to walk.

    FY 2010,2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, all had @ 1900-2000 plus or minus. Only 14 got nailed big time from a number perspective.
    ~ Maxwell can only push through so many cadets during the summer. They also have played with adding a Max 6...1 yr only. Shortening SFT from 30 to 23 (?) days to save costs. (Under 28 days and they don't pay TDY). Both failed. They are back to 5 Max classes.

    Now, put that aside. It still comes down to the pool size that will be boarded. HQ AF is saying that they will keep the numbers the same for ROTC commissioning, but OTS will be increasing. However, in that AF Times article May 2015 for FY 2016, this is what was stated:
    ~ the Air Force proposed a 1.3 percent increase to 317,000.

    1.3% increase in total strength, including officers. FY15 force strength was @313K. Typically in the AF it is a 20% officer to enlisted ratio. That means if it 4K more in personnel, and 20% are officers you are looking at 800 for officers.
    ~ OTS is taking 500+ more that is on the table for force strength. Leaving 300 overall AF strength.
    ~~ However, what they did not say was an important factor... they did not say where that force strength is coming from.
    ~~~ Big Blue has ratios..Flag officer(General...O7-10) to Field Grade(O4-O6), Field Grade to Company (O1-O3). They may say that they need more O4s and less O1s. That could gobble up the 300.

    There is a finesse to all of this from the AFMPC. To assume anything comes down to what ASSUME means...makes an A$$ out of U and Me.

    I have been here long enough to see the pattern, if the cadet is within the parameters for SFT, than take a breath, and move on with life. However, if the SFT candidate has a 92 PFA, 3.1 cgpa NON-TECH, no job in the det, and a low AFOQT, time to think about the what if!?!

    Unfortunately, the reality is there will be many...hundreds that get the non-select for SFT. Just like yesterday many did not get their #1 rated slot. All any cadet can do is say I gave 110%.
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2016
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  10. Lucleb6248

    Lucleb6248 New Member

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    @derek44 Where can you find that kind of information about the rated board not meeting this year?
     
  11. derek44

    derek44 Member

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    The rated board already met. If you are talking about the rated-intent enrollment allocation board, multiple sources on this forum alleged HQ was not holding it because they realized it was flawed. That being said, DS had informed me he filled out paperwork last week that stated his intent to volunteer for the rated board. The rated-intent board may or may not meet; they have at least gathered cadet intent if the board does in fact meet.
     
  12. noketchup

    noketchup Member

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    We had a powerpoint on FT selection. There are ~1700 slots allotted for FY18 cadets and we had to declare intent on being rated or non-rated, which is confusing as they originally stated that there would no longer be a rated board for FT.

    Projected acceptance rate will be in the mid-80s, and there is the possibility of extending out more EA's later on if need be like last year.
     
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  13. Lucleb6248

    Lucleb6248 New Member

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    I talked to cadre today, and they haven't heard anything about the rated-intent board not meeting. I don't know if they would know that information or not, but they seemed pretty firm in the fact that it was still meeting. Also does anyone have an idea of what percentage of cadets typically express rated intent, and of that, how many are selected on average?
     
  14. Sled

    Sled Member

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    For those looking for information on EA selection rates just do the best you can. All of your scores are in your packet except maybe your final FA. I'm not saying forget about the boards but dismiss all of the rumors saying "there's only going to be 900 selected", "the rated board isn't meeting", or "I hear the averages this year are going to be ____." Go do school work and have some fun with friends!
     
  15. WilB-2

    WilB-2 Member

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    FYI: Do not look for any second or third rounds of selections. That will not happen this year. Also a new thing this year, if you did not pass the AFOQT and receive a EA it will be a delayed EA meaning you will have to go to field training the next summer. So if you get one for this summer you would go next summer. Supposedly there are around 2100+ slots this year. Good luck to all competing.
     
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  16. Lucleb6248

    Lucleb6248 New Member

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    I know there is no way to truly predict what is going to happen, but thanks anyway for your ideas. I cant stop stressing over this so I suppose its natural that I look for any answers I can find. Good luck to all of my fellow cadets this year!!
     
  17. derek44

    derek44 Member

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    So it is uncertain if the the rated-intent board will meet. DS says his det never said anything about it, I've only read comments on this forum that other dets said it would not meet but some cadets still filled out paperwork signifying rated-intent. In this thread alone someone said this year there 1700 enrollment allocations and someone else said there are over 2100. I agree there are a lot of rumors flying around and DS has been crunching his numbers.
     
  18. Sled

    Sled Member

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    Yeah don't add to the rumors. Don't believe anything unless you hear it straight from the cadre's mouth and even then it can and will change.
     
  19. WilB-2

    WilB-2 Member

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    Yeah mine was straight from my Colonel's mouth. I'm a FT trainer for my Det so I get a lot of info about this summer. So I can tell you what I said is definitely not a rumor.
     
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  20. Akrogan

    Akrogan Member

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    Anyone have any idea when they'll be releasing? Know it was pretty early last year.
     

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