Pentagon Budget Slash?

Discussion in 'ROTC' started by EDelahanty, Jan 6, 2011.

  1. EDelahanty

    EDelahanty Member

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  2. USNA1982BGO

    USNA1982BGO Retired Staff Member

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    Agree that this could eventually effect ROTC and my initial thought is that these suggested cuts (2015 was mentioned as the targeted reduction of troops) will only serve to increase the competitiveness and class sizes of both Service Academies and ROTC programs IF and when this takes place. A lot could transpire between now and 2015.
     
  3. gojack

    gojack ....

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    Ouch!

    "Army troop levels will be reduced by 27,000, about 4.7 percent, starting in 2015 and the Marines’ head count will decline by about 20,000, about 9.8 percent, Gates said.."

    27,000= about 4 Brigades?

    1:7 Officer:Enlisted ratio=about 3375 less Army officers?
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2011
  4. FloridaDad

    FloridaDad Member

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    5% reduction spread over five years is a drop in the ocean. The armed forces are also set to rely on technology more, which will probably translate to more graduates.
     
  5. clarksonarmy

    clarksonarmy Recruiting Operations Officer at Clarkson Army

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    6 years ago we had one scholarship to give at Clarkson, two years ago we gave almost 20. Last year about 9...Welcome to the Army. Those are the things we can't control. What we can control is a good resume, good grades, physically fit, and a solid application. We love to speculate and pontificate on the board, but make sure we are taking care of what we can control. And oh, by the way, it's not going to change once we become Lieutenants. We can either whine about how screwed up things are, or we can always place the mission first, never accept defeat, never quit, and never leave a fallen comrade (the warrior's ethos).

    Cheers
     
  6. NorwichDad

    NorwichDad Member

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    We can either whine about how screwed up things are, or we can always place the missi

    Clarkson you are always spot on, Such is life in Military, Public or Private Sectors you need to place the mission first. If you dont you are already lost. I worked for a large broker nine years ago, some thugs drove a plane into my companys front office in the WTC. This event was not part of our plans. You survive, improvise and then thrive. Nonething ventured nonething gained.
     
  7. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    Clarkson is correct, you can beaach about this until the cows come home, but this is going to happen like it or not.

    Now believe it or not there is a silver lining, I always say this about the military...they are bulimic.

    They will gorge themselves and realize that they need to purge and then they start the process all over again of gorging and purging.

    The class of 15 maybe a small class, but as they enter the AD world and climb the rank ladder, when it comes to their promotion boards the Army is going to say CRAP we don't have enough so they will speed up the boards and have higher promotion rates.

    That is your silver lining!
     
  8. Ohio2015Parent

    Ohio2015Parent Member

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    Thanks for explaining this -- not from a military family so DS is having to educate me as we go. Wish there was a book "Army for Dummies", I'd buy it. I think as Pima, ClarksonArmy and especially NorwichDad put it in real basic life terms -- excuses, bi*&^ing and moaning do not get any mission accomplished. Make excuses or make a way, the choice is ours(or in the case of less scholarships, our Dkiddos).:wink:
     
  9. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    Honestly, I really don't believe anyone who has been associated with the military was shocked by this.

    The AF started cutting a few yrs back because their mission in Iraq/Afghanistan was drawing down.

    The AF is now going through a RIF, just like the Army will if they can't slash enough people.

    The military has always had a converse relationship with the economy. When the economy stinks retainment is high, when it is good than they can't fill their quota.

    Right now we are expected to draw down from Iraq and Afghanistan to severe levels. The economy stinks so people aren't diving at their commitment levels. Meanwhile, because it does stink more are applying for AROTC scholarships as a means to pay for college.

    It is the perfect storm regarding personnel mgmt.

    ROTC is the perfect way to reduce the numbers.

    I cannot and will not speak for the Army, but the writing was on the wall for the AF before they even announced a RIF. It was about a yr ago that on the AFA threads people started to quake in their shoes because you could feel something was up.

    1. Less candidates getting scholarships
    2. Releasing ROTC C400 scholarship cadets 3 months prior to commissioning with no pay back time or $$$ because their gpa was too low (3.0 or less for the AF)
    3. OTS boards were being delayed or canceled.
    4. LDAC for C200's became incredibly competitive with lower % of cadets going.

    Once you started to put all of that together you could quickly see ROTC in the AF was a way they were going to cut costs.

    Again, I am not saying that is how the Army is approaching this budget slash, I am just saying the old cliche of if you answer yes to 3 of these 4....

    Clarkson would be the one to def. say if the answer is yes to 3 of these 4.

    For the AF another big clue was the pilot pipeline for AFA grads had slowed down so steeply that some were not being sent until 9 mos after graduation. Worse yet, they were busting AFA grads out of UPT and letting them walk with no commitment or payback.
     
  10. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    Here is the MILITARY FOR DUMMIES when it comes to how they determine who needs to leave.

    1. They look at the Officer to Enlisted Ratio

    In this case they have determined that they need to get rid of X amt of Officers.

    2. They look at Flag(Generals) to Field(O4 -6) to Company (O1-3).

    This is where it gets tricky.

    If Field is too heavy they will than do a SERB (forcibly retire them through a board) for O5 and O6s, and speed up O5 boards for the O4s to O5s.

    If Company is too heavy they can either do a RIF or speed up promotion boards to O4 while decrease the rate promoted...2 boards passed over for O4 and they can cut you loose. The rule is 16 yrs in and you can stay until 20, There is no guarantee for under 16 yrs AD.

    If the Company grade is too young for promotion, their only option is Voluntary Separation or RIF.

    3. NOW here's the problem for ROTC. SA grads receive a different commission than ROTC or OTC, the reg. at least for the AF, is that you cannot RIF a SA grad unless you have gone through ROTC and OTC.

    Thus, if they come out in 15 and say that yr group 11-14 is up for a RIF. The WP grads are safe until they cut through the other 2 based solely on their commission.


    The Army is already acknowledging that they need to get rid of officers in FY 15 (which is really Oct 2014 -Sept 2015).

    So what you will see is a mixture of all of these things because they have so much time to get it right or at least that is how they have always done it historically.

    Dollars for donuts you may see the Army be like the AF was last yr and offer less scholarships for ROTC compared to previous yrs, just because they would be FY 15 when they go on the AD rolls...they will graduate before Sept 2015.

    You also may see that if they have too many O1s in the pipeline that they will offer ROTC cadets the opportunity to walk away from their time owed, or even tell them that their services are not needed.

    The economy really is going to play a big issue on how the dust settles. If it ticks up as we withdraw from Afghanistan than you will see soldiers do the dive, which will reduce the need for VSA, RIF or SERB, but if it stays at 9% they will stay because a paycheck is a paycheck.

    That will create problems because than it will become a RIF or SERB issue depending on the yr groups.

    Go back to point number 2 because now they are going to target specific yr groups and specific career fields.

    Use the RIF of 92 as an example, they targeted only 86/87 grads. We know a guy who had a Silver Star for his actions in Storm, but he was handed his walking papers because he was an ROTC commission and they cut 95% of them.

    The AF also targeted 81/82 yr group, but because they all were "regular" commission the way to get rid of them was to reduce promotion rate for O4 from 80 to 65% and speed up the boards from 1 a yr to 2.

    Finally, they did a SERB for 71 grads, because now they did their 20 they could separate them for early retirement.

    92-94 were very painful yrs, and it didn't matter how good you were at your job, it was all about timing and when you entered.

    I remember Bullet's DO telling us, well at least this time they gave these guys 6-9 months warning, after Nam ended my crew mate was called in after we debriefed the flight to the CC's office. He was given his 30 day notice walking papers.

    I would not go APE CRAP over this, but I would understand that it is probably going to get hairy for certain yr groups and fields...not every yr group, or every field, but certain ones. Again come 2014 if we are in a good economy they will lose this just by attrition and none of what I just stated will ever come to fruition.

    And no, at this time you will not be able to figure out which ones...you have to wait until they announce which groups will be targeted.

    Best case it will be O5/6...worst case O1/O2 for FY 15.

    I hope that this long post gave you the cliff notes on how it works when the military determines that they need to reduce their forces.
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2011
  11. goaliedad

    goaliedad Parent

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    Very good explanation, Pima.

    About the only thing to add to the toolbox of methods to reduce numbers is the "R" part of ROTC which is Reserves. I can foresee any ROTC graduate being allowed to take a Reserve commission if requested in the next couple of years. Beyond that Reserve commissions may be the offer you cannot refuse.

    If a candidate's objective is for an AD commission, the primary objective is to score as highly as possible in all phases of development, so you are given a choice of where to commission.
     
  12. kpmom2013

    kpmom2013 Member

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    Thank you, Pima

    You have done a great job of simplifying and explaining the basics of a complicated situation. One reason my DS chose to attend USMMA was to have the advantage of looking at all the services when it is close to his graduation year and determining which will give him the best chance to do what he wants in his career. If you watch the numbers over time, it seems to be at least somewhat predictable at least over the short term. As always, your posts are packed full of useful information. Thank you for taking the time to share your expertise.
     
  13. Ohio2015Parent

    Ohio2015Parent Member

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    Helpful posters

    AGREED! The information you all provide for us is awesome. THANKS!!:smile:
     
  14. Luigi59

    Luigi59 Banned

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    But last year, you said this:

    Which is correct? :confused:
     
  15. bruno

    bruno Retired Staff Member

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    Neither is correct. If you go on Active Duty you will get a "Regular" commission. This guarantees you nothing- The days of getting a Reserve Commission vs a Regular commission (and protection from RIFs as an RA vs AR) for active duty officers are gone. This changed with the DOD Authorization act of 2005. Although the link below is to an Army PAO release- The act covers all of the DoD services.
    http://www.tradoc.army.mil/pao/TNSarchives/February05/023805.htm

     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2011
  16. dunninla

    dunninla Member

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    Good to hear... I was troubled by Pima's statement about RIF preference for Academy vs. AFROTC. Last I wondered about the career advantages of Academy vs. ROTC, I found:

    - About half of the Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs from Army were commissioned through ROTC or OCS
    - Navy Chairmen were indeed mostly from the Academy
    - Air Force, same as Army.

    So that put to rest for me the false notion that the Academy offers superior career advancement in Army and Air Force, with the jury still out on Navy. In fact, you can well make the argument that ROTC grads from academically demanding institutions (let's just call that the USNWR top 100 Unis) have the advantage of learning the nuances of attaining success OUTSIDE a well articulated chain of command -- a skill that is invaluable the higher up one goes in any organization, military included.
     
  17. gojack

    gojack ....

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    USMA@WP produces >20% of officers but 50% of Joint Chiefs?
     
  18. LineInTheSand

    LineInTheSand USCGA 2006

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    Still matters in the Coast Guard....with promotion boards especially....just saying.
     
  19. bruno

    bruno Retired Staff Member

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    Well- I wouldn't go that far. The Service Academies IMO (and I am not an Academy grad) prepare a brand new junior officer far better than does any ROTC program to be junior officers. The edge disappears over time- by the end of your first tour as a junior officer I would say that the difference is gone, but from my experience in most circumstances a USMA 2LT is better prepared to lead a platoon than his counterpart from ROTC. A second benefit of being an Academy grad is one of human nature- we tend to be attracted to those with whom we share experiences. If all things are equal, the tie goes to the one who we can relate to and share experiences with. By its nature - USMA is far and away the largest commissioning source for Army officers at all grades. (Sorry, ROTC - while a commissioning source is not a monolithic block. It is a case of "we went to different colleges together"). Anyone who thinks that in the Army, or in business that there is an old school tie component is ignoring reality. So Academy graduates do benefit from a strong and large network in their respective services. But where they legally DO NOT benefit- they do not possess a different commission than their active duty ROTC compatriots and they are not shielded from a RIF- (which BTW is not in the cards in my opinion. The modest reduction in force levels that they are talking about beginning in 2015 for the Army is a tiny increment of the total force and is nothing like the enormous reductions post Vietnam or post Gulf War. )

    What the Act of 2005 changed was a practice where officers were commissioned as either Reserve officers on active duty or Regular Officers. All Academy graduates were commissioned as Regular officers as were Distinguished Military Graduates from ROTC, and all other ROTC and OCS grads were commissioned as Reserve Officers. The difference: until the post Gulf War/Cold War reductions, any RIF had to consider all Reserve officers before Regular officers were subject to being riffed. (Conversely- thanks to the double dipper law in place until 1999 you could stay on active duty for 20 years as a Reserve officer, retire and take a job with the federal Government the next day with full salary and full retirement benefits. A Regular officer on the other hand was subject to an offset- his military retirement pay was decreased - in essence you were paying for the privilege of working for Uncle sam:thumbdown: thankfully that has also ended.)
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2011
  20. dunninla

    dunninla Member

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    . I thought of that, gojack, but the problem is that I don't know the % of USMA vs. ROTC/OCS 30-45 years ago, which are the Army Joint Chiefs Chairmen that I looked at.

    It is quite possible that from 1960-1975 or so, the ROTC/USMA ratio was closer to 1:1 or 1.5:1.

    If you have those stats, please post. That will give us an Apple/Apple comparision.
     

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