Principal Nom timeline question

[aglages]

The 4400 number mystifies me. As I understand it: 4400 is the maximum number of cadets that Congress has authorized (approved funding?) at the USAFA. How does the USAFA justify exceeding that number? Is the 4400 just a ballpark number that the USAFA can exceed every year because they know X number of cadets will resign/wash-out? When does the USAFA actually have only 4400 cadets; during the month after graduation and before BCT? Is the 4400 tied to some expectation of how many will graduate and receive commissions in 4 years and therefor the commission number is actually the number the USAFA needs to be concerned about? If that is the case why wouldn't Congress just approve whatever funding is needed for enough cadets to produce 1000 newly minted USAFA 2nd LTs?

Obviously I do not understand how this "limit" of 4400 actually works and would appreciate any insight.

 

[flieger83]

Steve when you say 1200, do you mean offers of apptmts or starting class? If they only offer 1200 apptmts, that could mean a starting class of 1000. Just using historical data they usually have @15-20% that do not take the offer, which would put the starting class @1000.

I would expect 2011's numbers to stay true now. The real question will be what the end number will hit for 12, 13, and 14 since the AFA is required to have no more than 4400. If those 3 classes avg out to be 1100 each in May, that gives the incoming class number more wiggle room. If they avg out to be 1200, that tightens up the availability.

The problem is every branch right now is tightening their belts, the money pipeline is now as free flowing as it was yrs ago.

I mean entering numbers, not offers.

The AFA will offer several hundred more appointments than will arrive; they know that many will be turned down. How they arrive at the numbers they do, I have no idea.

Steve
USAFA ALO
USAFA '83

 

[Pima]

I agree it has always mystified me too, but I take it from a different perspective.

They are stating that the max number is 4400, thus, they could have 3200 if they wanted, but 4400 is the cap.

Also, every yr they will submit a budget for the next FY. I am betting that it is becoming an issue now because of the debt our country is in, and the DOD has been forced to reduce their budget.

With that in mind, the rational mindset would be you don't take from the AD operational world if you can reduce the AFA budget by getting them back under the 4400 number, especially if you are going to be doing a RIF and A SERB for the AD world.

The AFA is an important asset for the AF, but if the AF has to cut bucks, appointing only 1100 instead of 1300 will not have a great impact on their mission because they will not be AD for 4 yrs, but at the same time, it will pay for JP8 fuel tomorrow in the AD world. What is the cost to educate hovering around $400K for 4 yrs? 200 less at 100K per yr is a lot of JP8.

 

[aglages]

..appointing only 1100 instead of 1300 will not have a great impact on their mission..

Exactly. So if the "limit" is 4400 why wouldn't the USAFA get a head count every May 1st and determine how many cadets below the 4400 they have openings for? I understand the yield of appointments offered vs those accepted varies but certainly the USAFA should be able to adjust that with late (June 1st) offers of appointments off of the waiting list. Again, I don't understand the process or the goals but it just seems to me if the number is actually 4400 then the USAFA should either be able to get under that number or slightly (less than 25) over it...every year....unless of course they really don't need to be concerned about it.

 

[Pima]

The problem is they expect 25% of any incoming class not to accept the apptmt (1600 - 25% = 1200) PLUS, they expect 20 -25% of them to leave prior to commissioning which would make the commissioning group under 1000.

If those number all fell in line they would be in the 4400 marker.

The problem is more candidates are accepting apptmts, creating larger yr group classes, and fewer are leaving, thus, there is a clog in the pipeline.

The only way to get that clog moving to keep them under the 4400 IMPO is to 1 of 2 things or both:

1. Offer less apptmts, instead of 1600, bring it down to 1500, maybe even in the 1400 range, depending on what the % of acceptance was for the last 2 yrs. I think for the past couple of yrs (since 08) it has been starting class of 1300+ out of 1600...that means they are hovering at the 80% rate, to get to 1200, they need to go down at least 100 in the offers.

2. Once there Academic probation becomes a big issue.

~~~When times are good and the pipeline is flowing they can afford to give 2nd chances, when it is clogged they will start cutting their losses just to maintain numbers.




I remember back in the early 90's when we faced this same issue, the AF really started to play hard ball. Need an eye sight waiver, fine, but it was a strike against you and very hard to overcome.

FF to 96 and they couldn't care less because now they didn't have enough. In 97 it was laughable, they actually went to WSOs and said we will waive your age if you want to go to UPT.

The military is bulimic...they will always gorge themselves and then realize that they need to purge.

People in the military aren't joking when they say the success of your career is partially due to timing.

Let's pretend the class of 15 will be smaller, those that do get in, hit "golden" timing because now their yr group will be smaller and when it comes to promotion later on, the AF will need them to stay.

The military really can never do true strategic planning for personnel because they have 2 factors that are completely out of their control from a long term perspective (5 yrs out).

~ Economy
~ War