Promotion slowdown

Discussion in 'Academy/Military News' started by scoutpilot, Feb 9, 2013.

  1. scoutpilot

    scoutpilot Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2010
    Messages:
    4,276
    Likes Received:
    609
    One major effect of the drawdown in deployments and the force in general is a slowdown in promotion rates. It looks as though the promotion rates have slowed drastically for officers in the Army.

    In prior years, the promotion list would have been exhausted by now, to include the BZ promotions. It's probably going to take an additional year for all of my YG's promotees to pin, which will extend some to the 10.5 year mark to pin O4.

    The Clinton-era promotion rates have returned.

    I'd ask about the other services, but I don't know of anyone on the board who is at that point in their careers yet.
     
  2. Chockstock

    Chockstock "Forever One Team"

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2009
    Messages:
    731
    Likes Received:
    8
    Isn't there some good in that? I would rather be closer to soldiers anyway...I heard it starts getting a little more boring for officers once they reach O-4
     
  3. scoutpilot

    scoutpilot Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2010
    Messages:
    4,276
    Likes Received:
    609
    Not getting promoted will not keep you "closer to soldiers." You'll be doing the same post-command staff jobs with a lower rank and less money. You don't get to keep your last job longer.
     
  4. Pima

    Pima Parent

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2007
    Messages:
    12,809
    Likes Received:
    956
    +1 to scoutpilot.

    When you are 32-33, married, a mtg and pre-schoolers that pay increase of 700 bucks a month just for base pay, let alone when you make O4 your BAH changes too, the slow down matters.
     
  5. Pima

    Pima Parent

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2007
    Messages:
    12,809
    Likes Received:
    956
    Scout, I have a different question, but on topic.

    The slow down in promotions to field many times lead to VSSP, RIFs or SERB, due to the fact that there are too many Field grade officers.

    Is there any talk of that occurring in the Army? With all the drawdown in deployments I would think this is going to be an issue. I recall when the AF went through this yrs ago. There were so many O5's that they were doing O4 jobs, and O4s were doing O3 jobs.

    Also does the Army still have BPZ for O4? AF got rid of that about 15 yrs ago.
     
  6. GoArmyBeatNavy

    GoArmyBeatNavy Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2010
    Messages:
    668
    Likes Received:
    8
    There is still below the zone promotions. For a while, because of two few Majors, they had really permissive boards and double below the zone (2000-2002 year groups for the double BZ I believe, not sure if they went later).

    Of course, the accordion effect comes into play and now they have too many Majors which screws the talented officers in 2003-2006 years groups.

    This is the same for those officers who won't be able to go to the Army's CGSC because the "everyone gets to go" mentality caused a backlog of officers and now YGs 2000-2004 were just told to do it by distance learning if they hadn't done it in residence yet.

    A big driver in this field grade promotion slow down (I believe) is the transition from 47 brigades to 32 brigades. Brigade Combat Team headquarters have become quite large since the modularity transition in the early to mid 2000s. Thus, cutting 15 of them is going to greatly decrease the number of field grades required.
     
  7. Pima

    Pima Parent

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2007
    Messages:
    12,809
    Likes Received:
    956
    The bigger question to me if I were in this situation would be not the slow down to O4, but the selection rate.

    Yes, the pay loss stinks, but in the AF if you are passed over 2x IZ, you will be separated within a yr. There will be no 20 yr retirement pay.

    O4 board for me as a wife with 3 children under 6, living in AK; family in NJ, owning a home, getting/paying and car payments was the scariest time, and Bullet had a DP! The board before him had a 60 some odd % rate.

    I agree this is an accordion effect.

    Off topic, but how does CGSC selection work? Do they only have 1 shot or is it multiple yrs? Do they know they are eligible when they are promoted to attend PME in residence.

    For AF when Bullet was selected to go to CGSC as an AF officer he already had ACSC done via long distance(internet/seminars). Everyone I know in the AF had it done also. It almost seemed like if you didn't have it you were not selected.

    When they made O4, they got an X placed to their name, he had 3 tries to get in residence. No X, no chance. That has changed. They no longer place X next to the name.

    I am just wondering how the Army now selects for resident CGSC. Does the promotion board impact your chances, and you only have X number of tries to apply?

    I am also wondering how CGSC impacts O5 promotions. I would assume it would be huge. Thus, it brings it all back to the O4 board. For some the question might be, do I get out as soon as they can after being picked up for O4 because no in-residence PME will matter for O5?
     
  8. scoutpilot

    scoutpilot Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2010
    Messages:
    4,276
    Likes Received:
    609
    ILE selection (Intermediate Level Education, of which CGSC is but one option) has been an "if you can fit it in" deal for YG 00-03. My YG, which is 04, is being boarded this year for ILE. Only the top 55% will be selected for in-residence ILE.
     
  9. Pima

    Pima Parent

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2007
    Messages:
    12,809
    Likes Received:
    956
    Still curious, is it 1 and done?

    If so that is huge, especially if you are PCS'd right before the board.

    Do you know what the promotion rate for O4 was for the prior board, because that matters too.

    If 75% were selected out of 100, that would be 75. 55% out of the 75 would be @40. The overall chance of attending CGSC would be 40%.

    If Army is like AF you need the in residence for O5. O5 selection rate is overall 60%, and rated is higher than non-rated.

    Thus, for O4 in residence selection is huge from a promotion perspective. It is also highly unlikely to get in residence as an O5 without as an O4. That impacts your O5 to O6 board.

    Hence, why I stated O4 PME is a make or break career wise,

    Even scout is saying it with the 55% rate.
     
  10. scoutpilot

    scoutpilot Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2010
    Messages:
    4,276
    Likes Received:
    609
    The official word in the Army is that in-residence is not a discriminator for O5, but completion of ILE in any form is (resident, satellite, or DL).
     
  11. Aglahad

    Aglahad Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2011
    Messages:
    1,234
    Likes Received:
    5
    I hear CPT pretty much isn't automatic at 48 months any more. Any idea what the actual promotion rate %'s are at that time?
     
  12. scoutpilot

    scoutpilot Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2010
    Messages:
    4,276
    Likes Received:
    609
    It's still about 90%.
     
  13. MaineGrad86

    MaineGrad86 Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2013
    Messages:
    35
    Likes Received:
    1
    I made CPT at 4 yrs, 3 mos and MAJ at 11 yrs, 3 mos (in 1997).

    Both in-zone but I was always near the top of the in-zoners list due to my commissioning DOR.

    Had great CPT years. 9 mos of IOAC followed by Bradley Commander's Course, 1 year of staff time Grey Wolf Bde, 1st Cav. 2 years company command in 1/9 Cav. Two years in grad school, then two years teaching Math at USMA where I pinned on MAJ.

    Whose pulling all the branch immaterial jobs now - USMA, ROTC, Recruiting, as well as supporting the training centers if not CPTs?
     
  14. GoArmyBeatNavy

    GoArmyBeatNavy Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2010
    Messages:
    668
    Likes Received:
    8
    Senior Captains/Junior Majors for USMA, Recruiting, and CTCs; Senior Captains, Junior Majors and Contractors for ROTC.
     

Share This Page