Rated slots out today!

[hornetguy]

Lately that is not the failure rate. The FAILURE rate (not voluntary drop from UPT) hovers more around 1 per IFS class and 1 per UPT class. I'd say the true fail rate of people between IFS and UPT is more in the 5-10% range.

For parents, with good support and studying hard, few students will fail out.

 

[aggie83]

0ur son started UPT last Nov. with 27 students and only 20 made it to track so that is a lot higher than 1 per class. 1 of those was for something other than washing out so that still left only 21/27 to track, and they still have about 2.5 months to go. Of course, I don't have information if some of those were voluntary.

 

[Pima]

I think the washout rate is going to increase in the future...only for the reason is airlines are expected to go on a hiring frenzy and due to that fact the AF is going to have to look at their wash out rates.

I cannot predict the future. Hornet is at LAFB and has a better insight right now.

I can only state the numbers I know for my DSs class that winged April 25th this year from LAFB. I believe fencers other twin at Vance had the same rate as LAFB and Aggies DS for their class.

What should be stressed is it is not only academics, but how they handle the stick too. You can be the top academic student, but if at every Sim or flight the IPs feel their life is on the line you can still wash out. Chair flying is important, but the last time I checked cross winds are not an issue in your chair and the adrenaline isn't pumping.

Do kids wash out/back? Yes! However, you can't have that thought as even a possibility in your mind.

As a parent, when your kid gets to UPT you will want to be the one that says I talk to them only on Sat/Sun for 5-10 minutes. That is a good sign! The phone call in the middle of the week is when your heart drops and you steel yourself with the thought is this a good call or a bad call?
~ Trust me we have had both types and like Pavlov's dog if our DS calls in the middle of the week I know it isn't him calling just to say hi, how's your week going? It is usually pure joy or pure I need some reassurance!
~~ Caveat: the last 4 weeks of UPT after drop night and plans for the 3 day weekend for his winging. Laughlin does it big. Thursday night welcome reception, dinner. Friday breakfast/winging/base tour and maybe a Sim ride. Formal ball. Saturday breakfast and whatever until you take that 2 1/2 hour ride back to San Antonio.

 

[hornetguy]

I pulled some data from our archives to check on the numbers.

Looks like 1-2 per IFS class is about right (IFS classes occur more frequently than UPT) and 1-2 per UPT class go through a commander's review with about 60-75% being for flying training deficiencies. Several, especially in the last 6 months, were "drop on request" meaning they voluntarily left. Classes are graduating smaller, and have been for awhile, compared to the original class number due to wash backs and wash ins. There is a ton of flux in classes with people going backward and forward a class. So, my numbers show 5-6 fewer graduating, but only 1-2 removed from training. It's a perpetual problem, which is how the numbers even out. Side note: IFS wash out rates are worse than UPT wash out rates.

Based on what I can pull, I still say the FAILURE rate is maybe 10%. And I wouldn't expect that to change - there isn't any pressure to remove more or less people from training due to other AF priorities.

Due to my position right now, I get to hear a lot and pull a lot of stats.

 

[Pima]

Trying to get clarification.

So are you saying washbacks are more frequent now?

Also the DOR aspect, where do they fall in the statistics you have given.

IOWs if they drop voluntarily are they in your 10%? Or not placed into the equation because they did not wash out.

I would also ask another question which might seem questionable, but what is the Command like there?

Are students feeling like that it is to their best option to DOR and move on to non-rated or risk it and see if they will be washed back?

 

[aglages]

25% failure rate? That's a little concerning to me and to probably all the other happy 2015 parents who's kids just got pilot slots.

Concerning yes....but not shocking. Probably higher when you combine IFS and UPT failure rates (30-40% together?) Our "kids" have an opportunity...not a guarantee. Good luck to the class of 2015!

 

[hornetguy]

Trying to get clarification.

So are you saying washbacks are more frequent now?

Pretty much every single class has at least one if not more instances of wash backs. Common for half of each class to wash at some point.

Also the DOR aspect, where do they fall in the statistics you have given.

DOR (drop on request) have been more common recently. See below.

IOWs if they drop voluntarily are they in your 10%? Or not placed into the equation because they did not wash out.

No they aren't.

I would also ask another question which might seem questionable, but what is the Command like there?

No comment.

Are students feeling like that it is to their best option to DOR and move on to non-rated or risk it and see if they will be washed back?

DOR people typically are doing fine in UPT or IFS but have decided they just don't want that lifestyle.

Concerning yes....but not shocking. Probably higher when you combine IFS and UPT failure rates (30-40 together?) Our "kids" have an opportunity...not a guarantee. Good luck to the class of 2015!

Again, no, the rates are no where near that high.

Here's what a quick scan over the last two years shows:
IFS- 1-2 per IFS class fail or drop for other reasons
-70% are failures, 30% are other things like DOR

UPT- 1-3 per class are removed from training.
-Most classes only have 1 removed for FTD (flying training deficiency)
-Some classes (~25% have 2 removed for FTD)
-Rarely do classes have 3 or more removed for FTD
-About every other class you have someone DOR (drop on request)
-About every other class you have someone removed for medical (LOA, Med DQ, apprehension) LOA is "lack of adaptability" (usually airsickness.

Right now over the last year, usually 50+% of each class is washed back either at start or track.

The FAILURE rate is roughly 10%. The drop out rate, overall, is around 20%. Those stats are everything up to graduation (to include IFS if they don't have a PPL).

My point is: the failure rates, based on actually having access to the numbers now, are far overstated on the forums here. At least for Laughlin. Though I suspect Vance and Columbus aren't far off.

 

[aglages]

The FAILURE rate is roughly 10%. The drop out rate, overall, is around 20%. Those stats are everything up to graduation (to include IFS if they don't have a PPL).

My point is: the failure rates, based on actually having access to the numbers now, are far overstated on the forums here. At least for Laughlin. Though I suspect Vance and Columbus aren't far off.

Thank you for the clarification. Your "numbers" are substantially less than the others that I've read over the last four years. Good news.

 

[Pima]

Okay, here is my new question....how many slots were given.

Let's assume for ease of math 600 with no PPL.

If so than 540 would make it to UPT after IFS.

If 90% wing that would be 480 or 80% winging.

Now if you want that F track, well than you have to get selected for the 38 track which is 25%.
~ Laughin just had an amazing drop for track....15-08 had 8 38s, 2 helos and 15 1s. That is not only a huge class, but if you compare it to Vance's 15-06 (don't have the stats for Laughlin...it is a huge difference) They had 3, 1 and 13 track. One had 33% chance the other had less than 25% TIMING is everything most of the times!

We are now down to 120 out of the 600.

Out of that you have maybe 40% on a a very good drop. MC130 and B52 drop out of the 38s too! FAIP too!

Mathematically your chances out of the 600 picked up at the AFA and getting is 50 out of the original 600.

My goal is not to rain on anyone's parade, but to illustrate that as you bathe in the sun and rejoice, harder days are ahead of you from an emotional aspect.

DS winged in April, and it was a year of today's...dollar ride...today's check ride T6...today's xcountry...today's drop...today's another check ride...get the drift?

Than it was today's winging! DEEP RELIEF! Followed a few weeks later with oh crap here he goes through it again in his airframe! Friday was the Deep relief again (5 months almost to the day from him winging)...he passed his 130J qual. Now we live until his final check come Dec.

He went to IFS Feb 2013. I am still on the rollercoaster and will be for 2 more months. AHH to be back on that short ride again when he was a senior in hs!

Again, embrace the moment, but there has never been a 100% winging rate, just like there has never been a 100% BCT or commissioning rate out of the AFA. The only advice I would say is just because academically they are at the top of their class do not assume that means anything when it comes to IFS and UPT. It is a whole new game when they get there.

 

[hornetguy]

I would say those are pretty reasonable numbers. With the rare (and happy class) exception of this latest track, T-38s generally drop to 17-20% of students. Typically around 2-3 fighters a class to active duty.

60/600 ain't bad, and really (as Pima can attest), most learn to love their MWS. Five years out, few complain about what they got to fly.

 

[Pima]

I think most are thrilled way before the 5 year marker....maybe the Es aren't! I know for our DS he was just happy to get out of the UPT blender/pressure cooker as a student!

Than again he got his number one choice...his one and two were tied. He was going to be happy either way.

 

[dtkdarnoc]

DS had many friends in the latest Laughlin class. While the class was large, the IFS classes (2014) he was familiar with were having a 20-30% drop rate (whether voluntary or non-voluntary). Also, I believe they were 3 weeks delayed from their original finish time because of various factors beyond their control. So, I think this may have contributed to a larger number of "cool" planes dropped.

What is fascinating is to hear how many of the students want to be a fighter pilot going in, and how that ratio switches through the course of UPT. Good luck to all.

 

[Pima]

I think the ratio changes for several reasons.
1.The environment in the squadron.
~ I have a friend that was a squadron Commander at Columbus and he took over from a heavy pilot. When he took over he had very few that wanted to go fighters because the previous Commander was gun ho heavies. He of course as a Strike pilot was gun ho fighters the ratio changed.

2. As you go through UPT even before tracking you know where you stand. You can enter walking in wanting the 38 path, but you quickly get a clue where you rack and stack, especially if you have to do an 88 ride prior to tracking.

3. Many are engaged or married to military members and when they realize the logistics of dual careers, many times they place that into the equation. For example, the 22 is a great, but it has limited options when it comes to assignments. Now meanwhile if you take a different airframe it might mean more options.

4. Some get wrapped up in the idea that if I go this path I will have a better option to become a bus driver in the sky.
~ some say fighters have a better shot, some say heavies, either way they believe that is the better path.
~~ with the new pilot bonus it will be interesting to see that impact. The new bonus is 225k for fighters IF they stay until 19 years. The heavies get 125 to stay until 15, and currently a re up for them to stay until 20 at the 125 k amount.

JMPO.

OBTW Hornet regarding the ATP paperwork it was ATP. It allows him to have a restricted ATP and fly as a co pilot. It is not a biggie at all...just paperwork saying his hours and training are on the clock now for him regarding full up ATP instead of having to go back and show the hours years later when he leaves and IF he decides to become a bus driver.

 

[buffalo]

I agree with those numbers. My class was relatively strong, we had one guy DOR early in T-6s and one guy wash back about a month ago due to a medical issue that took him off the schedule for a few weeks. But then again, Aggie's son class did loose an above average not make it through, but definitely not all were due to FTDs. Most off the classes I know have had one or two students removed for FTDs. But that is mostly anecdotal. I don't have the actual stats.

...

Here's what a quick scan over the last two years shows:
IFS- 1-2 per IFS class fail or drop for other reasons
-70% are failures, 30% are other things like DOR

UPT- 1-3 per class are removed from training.
-Most classes only have 1 removed for FTD (flying training deficiency)
-Some classes (~25% have 2 removed for FTD)
-Rarely do classes have 3 or more removed for FTD
-About every other class you have someone DOR (drop on request)
-About every other class you have someone removed for medical (LOA, Med DQ, apprehension) LOA is "lack of adaptability" (usually airsickness.

Right now over the last year, usually 50+% of each class is washed back either at start or track.

The FAILURE rate is roughly 10%. The drop out rate, overall, is around 20%. Those stats are everything up to graduation (to include IFS if they don't have a PPL).

My point is: the failure rates, based on actually having access to the numbers now, are far overstated on the forums here. At least for Laughlin. Though I suspect Vance and Columbus aren't far off.

 

[fencersmother]

I was really surprised when one son CHOSE heavies since he just seemed a natural for the fighter/bomber avenues. But there were reasons other than the "damn! This plane is so hot!" which is relatively common among the young folk.

Of course, he's flying the C5M so, he's still pretty dang spectacular.

 

[raimius]

2. As you go through UPT even before tracking you know where you stand. You can enter walking in wanting the 38 path, but you quickly get a clue where you rack and stack, especially if you have to do an 88 ride prior to tracking.

Depends...
Most of my T-6 flight had an 88 ride. A good number hooked their first checkride, and a few went for 3 consecutive daily ride hooks.

 

[aseanag]

Total pilot slots given

Does anyone know the total aviation slots given to USAFA class of 2015/AFROTC class of 2015?

 

[billyb]

Most of my T-6 flight had an 88 ride.

Out of interest, what is an 88 ride?

 

[aggie83]

It is when you do not pass a checkride in UPT. I believe there are 4 checkrides in the T-6. You only get one 88 ride. If you pass that you continue on with your training. If not, you go to an 89 ride, which if you don't pass that, the only way you go on is with a commander's approval. I may be wrong, but I believe once you have used up your 88 ride, then any failures of checkrides after that go straight to an 89 ride.

 

[kinnem]

Ride, ride, ride, let it ride. - Bachman - Turner Overdrive