Selection Possibility- From a perspective of universal randomness

Discussion in 'Naval Academy - USNA' started by Naval_Gopher, Jan 11, 2015.

  1. Naval_Gopher

    Naval_Gopher Member

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    So at the following link: http://www.usna.edu/Admissions/Steps-for-Admission/index.php under "Selection and Deadlines" it says approximately 2,000 out of the 18,000 candidates are found triple qualified and nominated each year. Now, of that number, about 1,400 candidates actually receive the appointment (1,398 for the class of '18). So if you crunch the numbers, every candidate (triple qualified w/ nom) has roughly a 70% chance of being selected at random. Obviously, this number gets smaller once you factor in the NAPS, foundation, and fleet applicants. After that, the odds range somewhere in the ballpark of 55% for a typical HS senior with a nomination who is found triple qualified.

    Would many of you agree with the number that USNA gives on the website of 2,000 candidates being triple-Qd and nominated each year?

    All of the numbers were used from the class profile chart for 2018.

    **Also, I'm well aware its not just a game of chance and that the academy puts a lot of thought into each candidate. It's just interesting to see how the numbers play out.
     
  2. usnabgo08

    usnabgo08 USNA 2008/BGO

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    No, I would not. The number of those triple qualified with a nomination (i.e. fully qualified) has gone up over the past few years. I would estimate that someone who is fully qualified has between a 40-45% chance of being offered an appointment.
     

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