Sequestration 5 cuts

Discussion in 'Academy/Military News' started by Pima, Feb 25, 2013.

  1. Pima

    Pima Parent

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2007
    Messages:
    12,809
    Likes Received:
    956
    Here is an article that illustrates why cutting a program is not so easy.

    http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-02-25/five-military-cuts-that-would-fix-sequestration

    Now read page 2.
    That is the honest truth. Anyway you cut it the DOD's budget as bloated as it is has an impact on almost every state. In this current economy with @7.9% unemployment, housing market just starting to show signs of recovery, furloughing 800K DoD employees in towns like Fayetteville, NC will impact the economy. 25% pay cut for 5 months will impact paying mtgs., thus housing, It will trickle down to impact restaurants, retail, etc. It will stagnate the growth of the economy, and when you rely on tax rate hikes to pick up the difference regarding revenue, it is hard to do when the cuts impact everyone. Take the GS's next yr taxable income it will be lower, they will contribute less to the revenue they are expecting. Take those that depend on discretionary income, they will have less profits.

    Sequestration will stop the kicking the can regarding debt ceiling, but it will impact us again next yr. because those taxes that many believe will solve the problem won't be there to use.

    What will be there is consumer confidence in a decline. A new hit for housing, and automakers. A hit for retailers and restaurants. A hit for investing.

    It has to happen, but I think most people are fooling their selves believing it will never impact them personally.

    A study was done in No VA. The results were that every household would know at least 1 person connected to them impacted. I am sure Ft. Bragg that is going to be true too, same with towns like Goldsboro NC, and Minot ND.

    Hold on to your seats this is going to be a very bumpy ride, especially with the rise of gas prices and food too!
     
  2. LineInTheSand

    LineInTheSand USCGA 2006

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2007
    Messages:
    8,755
    Likes Received:
    1,004
    Oh, this could become a very good time to buy a house in northern Virginia. Waiting this week to see if my wife is affected by furloughs.

    There has been surprisingly little communication about sequestration in the federal government, but it's certainly buzzing in the DC area. Most feds should hear something this week at some point. All should hear by Friday.

    This is what a sloppy course change looks like after years of run-away spending. I'm not sure we'd see cuts any other way.
     
  3. cb7893

    cb7893 Member

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2011
    Messages:
    1,062
    Likes Received:
    379
    Just how bumpy is a ride on a V-22?

    http://blogs.ottawacitizen.com/2013/01/28/photo-presidential-v-22-takes-flight/

    I look forward to the whole BW article when is comes in today's mail. The abstract from Pima suggests that the only way to really effect the budget is to cut whole programs. Surprise, surprise!

    Did we hear any discussion of this during the Hagel hearings?
     
  4. LineInTheSand

    LineInTheSand USCGA 2006

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2007
    Messages:
    8,755
    Likes Received:
    1,004

    Oh so smooth, AF ones at least.


    Contracts across the federal government will see some cuts.
     
  5. Luigi59

    Luigi59 Banned

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2007
    Messages:
    4,628
    Likes Received:
    5
    If we cannot absorb a 3 cent cut of every dollar they want to spend (that's all it is, this drastic sequester we keep hearing about) without this constant Govt whining and moaning about "severe cuts" then we might as well declare the country bankrupt now and avoid the wait.

    Despite the small cut, spending this year still increases $15 Billion dollars more than we spent last year.

    A reduction in the rate of increase is not a cut, no matter how they try to sell it.
     
  6. Packer

    Packer Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2011
    Messages:
    1,877
    Likes Received:
    5
    And we have a winner!
     
  7. aglages

    aglages Parent

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2009
    Messages:
    2,680
    Likes Received:
    4
    Is there any region in the US that has a higher percentage of it's population feeding at the public trough? I think people in many parts of the US believe it is PAST time to cut government spending....even if the first step is just to reduce the rate of increase.
     
  8. LineInTheSand

    LineInTheSand USCGA 2006

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2007
    Messages:
    8,755
    Likes Received:
    1,004
    That would describe any poor section of any city in the U.S., except, there may be something to gain from NOVA.

    That said, the percentage is high. Besides the vast majority of federal agency HQs being in the DC area, including Maryland and northern Virginia, there are also a number of associations and contractors in the area too. As agencies feel the pressure some may cut contracts.

    I'm not saying that's a bad thing. There is plenty of waste.

    But I am guessing PIMA and I live in the DC bubble, where we think the rest of the country really cares...when in fact they don't. DC is very much a waste land of federal money. The rest of the country isn't exactly happy about it. I'm not sure how much the "we need to give our service members the $$ they need" is appealing to anyone. Tax payers funded the LCS, Deepwater, and F-35... to what end? Waste.

    Will it be somewhat painful for the DC area? Probably.
     
  9. Pima

    Pima Parent

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2007
    Messages:
    12,809
    Likes Received:
    956
    I am not disagreeing at all Agagles.

    I am only saying if anyone thinks that the cuts will not trickle down across the nation, I have a great piece of land in Florida to sell them. A little wet, and we may need special permits, but trust me I can get it done!

    VA is on the hit list, but so is CA from a GS employee perspective. VA is not bankrupt...CA is! VA will survive, CA not so sure.

    MD, TX and Florida will take a hit too.

    WA where Boeing is a major employer will feel the pain.

    This is not just about the DoD. National Parks like Denali, Pearl Harbor, probably Yosemite and Grand Canyon too.

    They may be on the public trough, but let's be honest the article was true, 45 states will be impacted if the 35 is cancelled. That is only 1 of the 5 programs on the list.

    Not only that, but the 35 is a program that is global. Australia, England, Israel, S Korea, Italy, etc. all are buying the air frame. Kill it from the US side, but does that mean Lockheed will kill it too? I don't know.

    Cancellation of the program impacts the economy for these countries too.

    You are 1000% correct about the trough, but let's be honest, 203K flying hours will be cut. Training for the AD world be it AF, Army, Navy, or Marines will pay the price. Can you say that the cost of combat readiness is worth SA or ROTC scholarships when OCS/OTS exist?

    Kill the 35. No problem, but how does that help defend this country in 10 yrs from now? How does it help us now when the AF has stated the following:
    Another AF link stated:
    Pretty intense cuts for the ADAF. I am in no way saying hit SA/ROTC, but I am saying look at the ADAF cuts before we discuss the trough. SIM instructors are not ADAF, they are civilians. Admin support are typically GS at every base. If anyone thinks that the GS's being furloughed will hang 1 minute past 4 and report 1 minute before 8, or answer their cell/home phone on that furlough day, I truly can sell you that piece of land in FL.

    Just wait.. May is not going to be pretty for the military. I will sitting back losing 20% of our income, and letting the phone ring. Just wait for the RDs at the SAs or ROTCHQs. Just wait for housing and PCS orders slowing down. Just wait for sim rides.

    Just wait. May will look pretty compared to Sept. because May would be only 2 weeks in the queue. Sept 15th will be 4 months.

    Just wait when companies don't hire come this spring. Just wait when the bubble in the beltway housing market bursts.

    This idea that the sequester is not going to impact all of us is IMPO insane. 1MN American's taking a 20% pay cut will impact us all. Consumer spending will be down.

    OBTW, let's also acknowledge that gas prices for Feb. are the highest ever, PLUS many GS's are retirees and they will take a hit for Tri-Care premiums, which means even less disposable income. Not saying I don't agree, just saying, the tentacles of the impact are further than most of us assume in this situation.
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2013
  10. Pima

    Pima Parent

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2007
    Messages:
    12,809
    Likes Received:
    956
    I am not disagreeing at all Agagles.

    I am only saying if anyone thinks that the cuts will not trickle down across the nation, I have a great piece of land in Florida to sell them. A little wet, and we may need special permits, but trust me I can get it done!

    VA is on the hit list, but so is CA from a GS employee perspective. VA is not bankrupt...CA is! VA will survive, CA not so sure.

    MD, TX and Florida will take a hit too.

    WA where Boeing is a major employer will feel the pain.

    This is not just about the DoD. National Parks like Denali, Pearl Harbor, probably Yosemite and Grand Canyon too.

    They may be on the public trough, but let's be honest the article was true, 45 states will be impacted if the 35 is cancelled. That is only 1 of the 5 programs on the list.

    Not only that, but the 35 is a program that is global. Australia, England, Israel, S Korea, Italy, etc. all are buying the air frame. Kill it from the US side, but does that mean Lockheed will kill it too? I don't know.

    Cancellation of the program impacts the economy for these countries too.

    You are 1000% correct about the trough, but let's be honest, 203K flying hours will be cut. Training for the AD world be it AF, Army, Navy, or Marines will pay the price. Can you say that the cost of combat readiness is worth SA or ROTC scholarships when OCS/OTS exist?

    Kill the 35. No problem, but how does that help defend this country in 10 yrs from now? How does it help us now when the AF has stated the following:
    Another AF link stated:
    Pretty intense cuts for the ADAF. I am in no way saying hit SA/ROTC, but I am saying look at the ADAF cuts before we discuss the trough. SIM instructors are not ADAF, they are civilians. Admin support are typically GS at every base. If anyone thinks that the GS's being furloughed will hang 1 minute past 4 and report 1 minute before 8, or answer their cell/home phone on that furlough day, I truly can sell you that piece of land in FL.

    Just wait.. May is not going to be pretty for the military. I will sitting back losing 20% of our income, and letting the phone ring. Just wait for the RDs at the SAs or ROTCHQs. Just wait for housing and PCS orders slowing down. Just wait for sim rides.

    Just wait. May will look pretty compared to Sept. because May would be only 2 weeks in the queue. Sept 15th will be 4 months.

    Just wait when companies don't hire come this spring. Just wait when the bubble in the beltway housing market bursts.

    This idea that the sequester is not going to impact all of us is IMPO insane. 1MN American's taking a 20% pay cut will impact us all.
     
  11. aglages

    aglages Parent

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2009
    Messages:
    2,680
    Likes Received:
    4
    I'm not sure who believes that all of us will not feel the impact of sequestration. That said, clearly those areas of the country that most depend on US Government dollars will experience the greatest impact. NOVA, combined with the poor areas of urban DC will probably be one of the hardest hit. Any study that is relevant in that geographical area may not necessarily be quite as applicable in other parts of the US. And as LITS said....the rest of the country may not care as much as those in the DC bubble may think we do.
     
  12. MemberLG

    MemberLG Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2011
    Messages:
    2,807
    Likes Received:
    444
    You got a buyer, but this buyer is not interested. As a GS employee that will more than likely get furloughed :unhappy: I will tell you that I will report before my start time and I will hang around 1 minute or more time to time and I will answer my Blackberry during my furlough days (However, my agency discussion is that during furlough we cannot work to include answering Blackberry)

    I am not happy about the furlough, but I am not working for a private company neither.
     
  13. MemberLG

    MemberLG Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2011
    Messages:
    2,807
    Likes Received:
    444
    Can anyone care to discuss how F35 is essential to defending our country in 10 years?

    I didn't realize that Al Qeada, Iran, North Korea, Russia, China, or any future enemies our country has large number of advance fifth/sixth generation fighters to shoot down our fighters in 10 years.

    Perhaps, Mexico or Canada might invade us?
     
  14. LineInTheSand

    LineInTheSand USCGA 2006

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2007
    Messages:
    8,755
    Likes Received:
    1,004
    Yes, but how quickly you will be willing not to answer it.

    That was the feedback to "non-essentials" in 2011. On your day off... no work may be done. If work had been done, punishment was to follow.
     
  15. LineInTheSand

    LineInTheSand USCGA 2006

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2007
    Messages:
    8,755
    Likes Received:
    1,004
    Maybe we're meant to "feel the pain". We have, after all, allowed this spending to get out of control.

    "Not me LITS, I don't have that authority."

    Sure, you do. You've elected in the very problem children that spend all day long. And we've all gotten fat off of it. Federal workers make decent money, and after a year, and nearly invincible. Anyone who has worked in a primarily civilian office (although it's not unique to just civilians) in the federal government KNOWS who the horrible workers are. Those horrible workers have been there for 30 years and everyone has to pick up their slack.

    I've worked at Coast Guard Headquaters and Immigration and Customs Enforcement... there are a number of employees who wouldn't make it a year in a right-to-work state.

    Maybe we should cut contracts. It's not a RIGHT to have a contract with the federal government.


    It's coming. My Booz Allen Hamilton friends are nervous. My uniformed friends are nervous. My GS friends are nervous. We should be nervous. Not only because of cuts, but because it came to THIS. Because our system is so broken, the only way to achieve meaningful cuts is with a chainsaw.

    Active duty folks are going to lose 20%? Welcome to what the rest of us lose in taxes. This will give them a very real idea of what a paycheck looks like without BAH.

    It will be painful and it will affect large portions of the population. But maybe it should be painful. Maybe that's the only way we will know how large we've been living on the federal stage.
     
  16. MemberLG

    MemberLG Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2011
    Messages:
    2,807
    Likes Received:
    444
    Not quickly. I do have a self-serving reason - timely action prevents additional work later. To make it clear the self serving reason is not the only reason.

    Yes on "no work may be done," but the follow up discussion my agency had were what kind of punishment and how do we track who worked (talked about having folks turn in their Blackberries and locking email accounts out)?
     
  17. Packer

    Packer Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2011
    Messages:
    1,877
    Likes Received:
    5
    I largely agree with everything your saying. I think there has to be some pain to get out of this mess. If not the pain is likely to be much greater later on.

    With regards to no BAH, military pay is not even remotely competitive if one eliminates BAH. BAH is part of the pay check. Should BAH be tax free? I am not sure it should be but there are decent arguments both ways on this. A new O-1 with an engineering degree is going to start out making about 15-20% less than the new civilian engineer even with BAH. I think that is fine but if the discrepancy gets too large we will lose the very people we need. For non-technical majors, I don't know how the pay compares.
     
  18. Packer

    Packer Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2011
    Messages:
    1,877
    Likes Received:
    5
    On the F-35, the fact that it impacts a lot of jobs should not be part of the consideration. What we have already spent is a sunk cost and should have no bearing going forward. From where we are today, does the F-35 make sense from a cost benefit point? With limited funds, where is it on the priority list? Was/is it a technological over reach?
     
  19. LineInTheSand

    LineInTheSand USCGA 2006

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2007
    Messages:
    8,755
    Likes Received:
    1,004
    Well, luckily they're a captive audience for their first 5 years. We'd also probably have to consider the other "plus" categories. I don't know how much of my paycheck does to my health insurance or healthcare each month, but I know it's more than zero.

    Taxing BAH would eliminate BAH, and I think we're assuming first year grads make more than they do in the real world (how I always referred to the private sector when I was still in).

    Long-term, you're right, we would lose people in the services. But we've also discussed here, if it really should be a 30 year career factory (although those discussions had more to do with what kind of officer corps was developing).
     
  20. LineInTheSand

    LineInTheSand USCGA 2006

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2007
    Messages:
    8,755
    Likes Received:
    1,004
    And how much cost-overrun is still "responsible"? We seem to be WELL PAST what a responsible company would allow.
     

Share This Page