signs of things to come - tough scene

[Pima]

9000 are up, but 95% are expected to be retained are actually good odds.

One thing for even AFROTC candidates and cadets to heed their advice on his it is up to you to review your records and it takes weeks to receive them

It is your career be proactive. I cannot stress high enough how often something is missing or is incorrect. If you do not pull them prior to the board your assumption that everything is correct might be the make or break.

The thing that should also be understood is that the AF is taking a different approach to save even more money...read between the lines...up for promotion is your safety net, or so it would appear, but as I said earlier if you do not get promoted you may be kicked out.

Here is an article for everyone.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ers-budget-cuts-in-face-of-perfect-st/?page=2

A defense industry executive in Washington said all sorts of ideas are being discussed in the Pentagon to meet both possibilities. These include cuts to the most costly weapon system in U.S. history — the F-35 Lightning stealth fighter, which has been mired in cost overruns.

Mr. Panetta last month endorsed buying the next-generation plane that will replace the Air Force F-16 and A-10, give the Navy a new carrier-based bomber and provide the Marine Corps a successor to the Harrier vertical takeoff and landing jet.

“I think that plane will give us an important capability for the future,” he said. “From everyone I’ve talked to, they seem very pleased that it does in fact provide the capabilities that we need. But it’s going to take a lot of work. It’s still going through the test phase. We’ll learn a lot from the test phase. But I think it’s an investment that we ought to maintain for the future.”....With troops levels in Iraq dropping fast and with a planned withdrawal of combat forces from Afghanistan in 2014, the Army is eyeing a cut in the number of Brigade Combat Teams (BCTs), its core fighting unit, according to congressional and defense industry sources.

A second industry source said he believes the Army will propose eliminating some BCTs in the 2013 budget and ultimately do away with six to eight of 45 active BCTs.

The Army now has an active force of about 570,000, which is expected to shrink to 520,000 under previously submitted budgets. But the second industry source said that number will likely fall to about 485,000 soldiers to meet the new spending constraints.

This source said the Army is looking at terminating at least three programs — an improved ground-to-air missile, a target acquisition system and a command-and-communication suite.

 

[dunninla]

Somebody probably has the answer to this question. Since AROTC does not mandate that you serve AD upon commissioning has that number changed? If it has decreased it means there is no room at the inn.

We have powerpoints showing approx 60% of YG11 were commissioned AD, with 40% going Reserves or Guard. Of the 40% Reserves or Guard, 30% of the 40% wanted AD but did not qualify via the Order of Merit List. PMS's with whom I have spoken (three) over the past five months, each with programs composed of over 100 cadets, indicated that the number of cadets commissioning AD could go down to 40% or even 35% for YG15. This of course means the cadet who really wants AD needs to be approx. in the top third of the OML list or will likely not have the option of commissioning AD.

 

[dunninla]

ultimately do away with six to eight of 45 active BCTs.

if it is 8, that is 8/45, or 18% reduction. If it is 7/25, that is a 16% reduction.

570,000, which is expected to shrink to 520,000 under previously submitted budgets. But the second industry source said that number will likely fall to about 485,000

That is a 15% reduction.

Those reductions are actually smaller than what I had been sensing on the horizon. I had been expecting 20%+ If the DoD is going to make deeper budget cuts that 15-18%, then it appears it will be achieved not through personnel, but through materiel.

 

[gojack]

"The Army may cut 10 of its 45 active-duty brigade combat teams (BCTs) as it works to meet President Obama’s order to slice defense spending, said an Army official familiar with the budget deliberations."

http://www.armytimes.com/news/2011/09/army-considers-cutting-10-active-duty-combat-brigades-090111/

 

[Pima]

Dunninla,

If they cut even 15% from the Army AD personnel, that means they will hit cadets in ROTC. That is how the system works...Officer to enlisted ratio, Rank ratio (Flag, Field, Company).

Cutting 15% from AD means they will need to slow down the pipeline for futur AD officers.

Not trying to be rude, but I am at the point of

ROTC exists to train new Officers, and if they already have too many in, than they need to slow down the pipeline. They are also the 2nd tier for new officers, USMA is 1st tier!

To sit here and say

Those reductions are actually smaller than what I had been sensing on the horizon. I had been expecting 20%+ If the DoD is going to make deeper budget cuts that 15-18%, then it appears it will be achieved not through personnel, but through materiel.

Illustrates that you knew the writing was on the wall.

To say it will come from personnel, when SOD Panetta has stated publicly he is supporting new technology is wrong.

Panetta stated the 35, which touches the AF, Navy and Marines are safe. He has not stopped RIF, SERB and promotion boards.

Read my link.

The Lexington Institute’s Mr. Thompson said: “The normal inclination of our political system when a budget crunch comes is to cut investment and keep funding people programs. But at the level of cuts currently being contemplated, that would wipe out the next generation of weapons system. So some major cuts to personnel are unavoidable.”

As I said before it comes down to how you interpret the writing on the wall. I interpret that SOD Panetta with his POV for the 35, will have that for the Army too.

You interpret to mean they will keep troops instead of hardware... time will tell!

Finally, 20% reduction will def. put us in a double dip recession. People tend to forget that Lockheed, Grumman, SAIC, RAND, RAYTHEON, GE are integral parts of any hardware the military produces. Shut the line for a tank, sub, jet and you also hit local communities who are employed to supply that product for the contract. Congressman are going to fight to keep that contract. Cutting personnel not so much because it is unlikely they will make a big impact.

BIG PICTURE!

 

[Pima]

From gojack's link

The Army has already announced plans to reduce its end strength by 27,000 starting in 2015, and has set lower recruiting goals

There is your writing on the wall or as others have stated things to come.

I get nobody wants to hear this, but that is reality. As patent stated earlier it is all up to you now to shine. Not everyone is going to get the boot, but if you want to believe that they will cut hardware faster than troops that is your choice. Just remember it takes decades to get hardware on line, with millions invested, and if they cut it, they financially lost everything.

Right now they have enough officers and all they have to do is STOP/LOSS to keep the AD members. That means they can keep the AD, and close the ROTC or OCS/OTS pipeline, and save tons of money because they will not offer one scholarship.

The military is just like a Fortune 500, they have long term strategic planning for every aspect.

 

[dunninla]

"The Army may cut 10 of its 45 active-duty brigade combat teams (BCTs) as it works to meet President Obama’s order to slice defense spending, said an Army official familiar with the budget deliberations."

http://www.armytimes.com/news/2011/09/army-considers-cutting-10-active-duty-combat-brigades-090111/

OK, 10/45 makes more sense... 22% And you're right of course PIMA... if 22% reduction on total force, then 22% would be an expected reduction at least at the Company level officers for these brigades.

PIMA -- I wasn't disagreeing with you. My post that ROTC AD commssioning for YG15 might be as low as 35-40% vs. current 60% is a reduction of 35% out of ROTC. I would think that instead of taking 60-65% of the ROTC cadets and directing them to Guard/Reserves, they would be better served to simply reduce the overall number of cadets participating in ROTC... perhaps by 50%

 

[Pima]

Unfortunately this is a forum, so there is always that delay or misinterpretation of what someone was intending to state.

I have to say I do agree with your premise regarding: "they would be better served to simply reduce the overall number of cadets participating in ROTC... perhaps by 50%

The two things I have always believed were smart regarding AFROTC is that:
1. The scholarship is tied to cadet AND their major.
2. SFT as the breaking point for scholarship or non-scholarship.
~ 2 yrs in the system if you really want it you should be a viable candidate to get it, and scholarship does not matter to them.

I think that the should be faulted for not having the IRR option like AROTC. Many cadets don't want to make it a full time career, so having that option gives the best of both worlds, especially when the economy is good.

However, at the end of the day, none of our opinions will really matter, and what they set forth as parameters will.

I know for lurkers they are probably scared out of their bee gee gees, but as frightening as this may appear, we can promise one thing.

You have no chance of being an officer if you don't apply. If you decided to fold in the tent because we have frightened you, than you decided you were not willing to fight for it.

The fat lady sings early on because you told her to sing!

I know multiple posters here that got the TWE from ROTC (each branch) and SA's LY, but instead of calling it a day they are taking that knowledge regarding their weaknesses and applying again.

One thing the military likes to see is candidates that are kicked down who stand up and say..."Thank you sir, may I have another" (Animal House movie)

 

[gojack]

I would think that instead of taking 60-65% of the ROTC cadets and directing them to Guard/Reserves, they would be better served to simply reduce the overall number of cadets participating in ROTC... perhaps by 50%

In addition to the Active Duty Cutoff there is a Minimum Cutoff on the OML, if a cadet does not make the Minimum Cutoff, they are not going to commission. The Army likes being able to 'raise the bar' and only commission the top cadets, having more cadets competing for AD/AR slots does not harm or bother the Army at all. So there is no reason to cut number of cadets, they will just raise the bar on the OML... Culling the herd so to speak. That herd is needed BTW, to see who rises to the top and for those leaders to have someone to lead.

True for promotions also, there have been a lot of complaints lately that too high a percentage of captains were being promoted. Raising the bar so 70% get promoted instead of 98% is great, from a Army point of view, they remove the weakest officers. Not that anyone wants to see huge cuts, but it is SOP during a drawdown.

BTW, From the Army's point of view, ROTC scholarships are a marketing expense.

 

[Packer]

BTW, From the Army's point of view, ROTC scholarships are a marketing expense.

I think that is true for all of the branches. It amounts to a relatively small amount of money (relative to the budget) but less marketing is needed when they need fewer people. Poor timing for some of our kids but it will work out.

 

[Aglahad]

In addition to the Active Duty Cutoff there is a Minimum Cutoff on the OML, if a cadet does not make the Minimum Cutoff, they are not going to commission. The Army likes being able to 'raise the bar' and only commission the top cadets, having more cadets competing for AD/AR slots does not harm or bother the Army at all. So there is no reason to cut number of cadets, they will just raise the bar on the OML... Culling the herd so to speak. That herd is needed BTW, to see who rises to the top and for those leaders to have someone to lead.

True for promotions also, there have been a lot of complaints lately that too high a percentage of captains were being promoted. Raising the bar so 70% get promoted instead of 98% is great, from a Army point of view, they remove the weakest officers. Not that anyone wants to see huge cuts, but it is SOP during a drawdown.

BTW, From the Army's point of view, ROTC scholarships are a marketing expense.

Minimum cut off for commission? I have never heard of that in any of our accessions briefs on campus or at LDAC. I was always under the assumption that if you were about 70 points or below on the OML you were essentially forced branched reserves/NG as long as you had a degree...passed MS class...LDAC etc

No money, drawing down wars etc= cuts.

Honestly, as a cadet who will be commissioned within the very near future I wouldn't be surprised if they said "thanks but no thanks". I did well on the OML, yet my father even knew a WP grad LT from the early 80s who was forced out after 2 years because of budget cuts (he did well too). Glad I swapped majors for that civilian back-up plan during my MSI year...war budgets do not last forever.....

 

[alparent]

In regards to having a military career, AD and reserves time committment,etc... what happens if you are forced out?

 

[Pima]

You get a hardy handshake and a pat on the back if they decide not to commission you. They will not require to pay back the scholarship since they broke the contract.

If they RIF you they usually do give you bennies(medical/commissary) for a certain amount of time. RIFS don't pop up out of nowhere and most that know they are in the target zone, wise up and save all of their leave. This allows them a few months of pay to start their life over. One thing that was a shocker to many back in 91-93 was that they found out that their severance packet included this leave, and due to this fact they could not apply for unemployment pay until they burnt through all of that leave.

Additionally if you are AD, the military is actually kind because before the RIF occurs they offer VSP (Voluntary Separation Pay). It will allow members that are in targeted areas to see the writing on wall and walk away knowing that if they ride it out, their chances aren't good. The problem is this is like playing chicken and hoping everybody else takes VSP, which rarely happens, so you may let this chance pass through your fingers.

You do get to keep your TS clearance which can help you for your next career.

I recall in 94 after they did that huge RIF for every branch, young officers out of fear wised up and immediately started their Masters. Prior to the RIF most waited until they had @ 6-8 yrs in as an O3 getting ready to go up for O4 They used the TA and felt that what would be the worst case scenario? Get cut, well they wouldn't owe a dime back for the TA, and at least now they would have a Masters and a TS clearance.

Glad I swapped majors for that civilian back-up plan during my MSI year...war budgets do not last forever.....

Excellent point. When RIFs/cuts come down it is not a flat rate across the board. They actually break it down not only by yr group but also career field. If that career field is undermanned, even though the yr group is targeted, they may be saved. For example, linguists in Farsi are not easy to come by, a CE is more common. A CE that minored in Farsi and you can bet they are safer than a CE major since they have their feet in 2 pools, not just one.

I don't know about the Army, but for the Air Force it is also broken down by rated, non-rated (line), Medical, JAG and Chaplains. It is totally possible for the AF to say Medical is safe, but line will be cut by 75%.

This happens because it is easy to x-train a pilot into a position as a maintenance officer, but you can't do the reverse. Same for medical. You can take a nurse and make them a hospital administrator, but not necessarily make a hospital administrator a nurse.

For the AF you can always tell which branch is over manned by looking at promotion rates. Again, it segregated into career paths, so if your board is moving faster with a higher % rate than other boards it would appear from a manpower need that they don't have enough for their needs. Conversely, if your rate is lower and slower they are bloated.

There is always writing on the wall, it just depends if you want to see it or read it.

 

[patentesq]

In regards to having a military career, AD and reserves time committment,etc... what happens if you are forced out?

It depends on what stage the servicemember is in his or her career. If s/he has over 20 years in, then s/he can retire and pursue a second career while collecting retirement (there are efforts to change the retirement system to provide that retirement vesting accrues from years 1-20, which may be the standard for those who commission after the date it becomes effective).

If the servicemember has completed his or her service obligation but doesn't have sufficient years in for retirement, I do not believe anything happens (other than honorable discharge).

If the servicemember has not completed his or her service obligation, I believe they spend the remainder of their obligation in the Individual Ready Reserve (basically, their name is maintained on a list just in case of a recall but there is no time commitment or pay involved).

 

[Pima]

Before we scare everyone let's remember this usually happens 1X in a career. For those just entering you probably will never see it in your AD life. It happened after the Vietnam War, didn't happen again until after Gulf 1, and now 20 yrs later it is an issue.

Don't put the cart before the horse and start worrying about what if they cut me as an O2. Right now place your focus on becoming an O1.

The military is not going to stop looking for the next great leader.

As a 16 candidate you probably have a higher chance of not getting promoted to O4 than getting RIF'd or not commissioned.

Traditionally, this purge lasts maybe 2-3 yrs, even if lasts 4, you are still in college.

Downside for AROTC candidates they do not guarantee AD, which means you might be forced to not go AD route.

For right now remove the cart, ride the horse!

 

[Ohio2015Parent]

Before we scare everyone let's remember this usually happens 1X in a career. For those just entering you probably will never see it in your AD life. It happened after the Vietnam War, didn't happen again until after Gulf 1, and now 20 yrs later it is an issue.

Don't put the cart before the horse and start worrying about what if they cut me as an O2. Right now place your focus on becoming an O1.

The military is not going to stop looking for the next great leader.

As a 16 candidate you probably have a higher chance of not getting promoted to O4 than getting RIF'd or not commissioned.

Traditionally, this purge lasts maybe 2-3 yrs, even if lasts 4, you are still in college.

Downside for AROTC candidates they do not guarantee AD, which means you might be forced to not go AD route.

For right now remove the cart, ride the horse!

Absolutely!! Must finish your BA/BS before planning grad school(usually) and survive the craziness between here and LDAC However, I will pass on to DS that a minor in a hard to find language might not be a bad investment of his time Arabic, Russian, Swalhili, Indonesian, Chinese....could be fun, or not.

 

[bruno]

my father even knew a WP grad LT from the early 80s who was forced out after 2 years because of budget cuts (he did well too). .

the lesson to take away is that everything is cyclical and you can maximize your options by doing as well as you can- all the rest is really out of your control. Don't oversell this as the end of the world- it's not. While the Army is going to drawdown somewhat- it won't be the 01- 03 crowd that feels the pinch that much. They will cut back on accessions somewhat, (so cadets who are low on the OML probably should be a little nervous), reduce the promotion % to O3 and O4 and it will balance out pretty quickly. The folks who will be taking it hard will be at the field grade level- they will have devoted a lot of time in service yet will be facing separation short of retirement if they don't get promoted to O5.

If that Lt that your dad knew in the early 90's (in the early 80's we had a buildup- so much so that they were dragging guys in from the reserves who missed their drill periods and putting them on AD -so I assume you have the wrong decade) was forced out- he wasn't "doing well" and was still forced out- he was forced out because he got passed over. In 94 the Army started letting company grade officers voluntarily go one year early regardless of their source of commissioning. That resulted in the loss of some really promising guys- for example our Bn S1 was the 1st Captain at USMA and I believe #2 in his class- the kind of guy who people start looking at as a future GO. Yet he saw the future and took the option to leave early- heading off to Harvard Business School. He's probably rolling in the $$ today- but 7 years later the Army went to war and didn't have the services of someone who would have been a stellar field grade officer. So- one hopes that they don't just open the spigots to push folks out the door. Again though- sweating the cycles of the military is just worrying without be able to do anything about it. All you can control is your own performance- do as well as you can in your studies and in your military performance.

BTW- this is one of the reasons why I really believe that you should major in something that is marketable in the outside world. The military is never more than a portion of your working career- even if you stay for 20 years You have to work again and your major will matter in your quest for civilian employment. Major in something demanding. Personal enjoyment is not the only consideration in the real world (if it was, we would all major in beach time at UH) . You need to be able to show that in a technical world, you can master complex subjects.

 

[Pima]

I don't know about AROTC, but I know AFROTC actually gives you a bonus stipend for certain languages.

As within anything in life, you need to weigh the pro's and cons. It can be a double edged sword, where they say we have enough in your number 1 career field and not enough in that...you took the money, and now the Piper is coming to call.

It is like when we say to AF/NROTC cadets don't game the system by going tech and hoping to convert non-tech once there. You signed on the dotted line, not our fault if you didn't read the fine print.

There are some amazing careers that are so undermanned you will be safe. Like playing X-Box, UAVs as a computer engineer might be a great path. It is exploding!

Nursing, is a great option.

Linguistics is also a great option too.

Look at the military like you would look at the business world. If the corporate world is short on certain types of degrees, you can bet the military is too. If they have the pick of litter for certain majors, so does the military.

Xposted with Bruno, obviously I agree since my last statement reiterated the same sentiment.

 

[Ohio2015Parent]

I don't know about AROTC, but I know AFROTC actually gives you a bonus stipend for certain languages.

I believe the Army does also, gojack had a link I've bookmarked somewhere about other foreign language programs offered. DS must take 4 semesters of a language for his Arts & Science degree, not interested in continuing Spanish from high school, so perhaps one these high need languages will intrigue him. He's sitting in on Russian this quarter for a few weeks and possibly Arabic or Chinese next quarter. He is not starting the language sequences this year since he'll miss 3rd/spring quarter to attend basic with the guard. Hopefully by sitting in a few weeks he'll have a better idea which one might be sucessful for him.

Would love for him to do a semester or summer abroad program, thru Army or university, but will have to see how it all fits together after basic June-August 2012. Don't really care if the abroad helps him with Army career, I just think it is an incredibly valuable experience for any young person(I've never been outside the lower 48 and will travel once the kiddos are settled more His DSister spent a summer in Spain and loved the whole thing(also helped her eliminate Spanish teacher from her possible majors)

As you and Bruno have noted, this is not the first time any branch has downsized - no reason to panic, but always a good idea to plan for all possible scenarios

 

[Aglahad]

the lesson to take away is that everything is cyclical and you can maximize your options by doing as well as you can- all the rest is really out of your control. Don't oversell this as the end of the world- it's not. While the Army is going to drawdown somewhat- it won't be the 01- 03 crowd that feels the pinch that much. They will cut back on accessions somewhat, (so cadets who are low on the OML probably should be a little nervous), reduce the promotion % to O3 and O4 and it will balance out pretty quickly. The folks who will be taking it hard will be at the field grade level- they will have devoted a lot of time in service yet will be facing separation short of retirement if they don't get promoted to O5.

If that Lt that your dad knew in the early 90's (in the early 80's we had a buildup- so much so that they were dragging guys in from the reserves who missed their drill periods and putting them on AD -so I assume you have the wrong decade) was forced out- he wasn't "doing well" and was still forced out- he was forced out because he got passed over. In 94 the Army started letting company grade officers voluntarily go one year early regardless of their source of commissioning. That resulted in the loss of some really promising guys- for example our Bn S1 was the 1st Captain at USMA and I believe #2 in his class- the kind of guy who people start looking at as a future GO. Yet he saw the future and took the option to leave early- heading off to Harvard Business School. He's probably rolling in the $$ today- but 7 years later the Army went to war and didn't have the services of someone who would have been a stellar field grade officer. So- one hopes that they don't just open the spigots to push folks out the door. Again though- sweating the cycles of the military is just worrying without be able to do anything about it. All you can control is your own performance- do as well as you can in your studies and in your military performance.

BTW- this is one of the reasons why I really believe that you should major in something that is marketable in the outside world. The military is never more than a portion of your working career- even if you stay for 20 years You have to work again and your major will matter in your quest for civilian employment. Major in something demanding. Personal enjoyment is not the only consideration in the real world (if it was, we would all major in beach time at UH) . You need to be able to show that in a technical world, you can master complex subjects.

In all honesty, it could of been the 90s I really can't remember. What I do recall is that he was a FA 1LT who was near the top of his class and was forced out because of cuts. Perhaps there will be a cutoff in the near future for those low on OML because traditionally those who score <70 points are forced branched NG/reserves. However, now I am hearing a lot of the LT spots in my area for certain branches are filling up so who knows.

Yes, the major choice is a real big issue for me with new cadets. I wish the army had standards like Navy or Air Force for pushing more technical majors. Had a discussion with a few incoming MS2 cadets who wanted to drop their business/finance majors to pursue an easier route because the army is now their 20-30 year career. Needless to say I urged them to reconsider.

1. As a incoming sophomore you really have no clue what the real army is like other than ROTC-land

2. Who knows what future budgets as well as OML accessions will dictate

3. Going an easier route is only selling yourself short


Foreign Language: I believe there are extra OML points involved as well as a bonus stipend for CERTAIN foreign languages in AROTC

Yes, as a nursing major I got a OML bonus too because it is a BS degree. There are alot of FY11 accessions slides floating around with OML bonuses on them.