Smaller class sizes what does that mean down the road?

[scoutpilot]

Talking about immunity from RIF, the ancient Delphic Oracles prophesied for over a thousand years. Their utterances were delivered in a trance-like state now believed to have been induced by hallucinogenic gases seeping from cracks in underground rock formations.

The most likely explanation for the modern Oracle of the Condo at Delphi is that the project was built over an old landfill and methane gas is leaking upward. You may also want to check for radon.

By the way the original oracles were supposed to have been virgins.

How dare you insult my virginal honor!

 

[goldenlion]

I'm not concerned about my daughter's career at all or anyone entering the military. The questions that I posed were just pure curiosity of what people were thinking and their predictions.

I doubt the powers that be could even answer the questions correctly because there are too many unknowns: economy, war, technology, patriotism, retirement system/health care changes, etc.

But my gut feeling though is that the military is swinging the pendulum way to the other side. In a few years, when the economy is better, the military will be hurting for people. The promotion rates will improve, incentives will be reinstated/increased, etc. I think that if those in the military right or about to enter now can survive a few more years, they will have wonderful careers.

Hopefully SAF will still be around in 15 years to see if my prediction is right.

 

[Christcorp]

Your prediction is pretty much dead on. That's how it's happened in the past. At least the last 2 main times I saw it happen. Major cut backs; RIF's; early retirements; early separations; etc.... Couple years later; manning levels too low; promotions increase; major recruiting; etc...

The only difference I see in the next round of cutbacks; and this is just my crystal ball. (I don't have an oracle to help me); is that technology is changing at such a rate with drones and other technologies; and I see our future political leaders not allowing our military to be as involved as we were in Iraq/Afghanistan; that there won't be another major surge of enlistments.

 

[goaliedad]

One thing that hasn't been discussed in the "what will our officer corps look like in the future" is the different types of applicants that apply during times of "action" and times when the "action" is winding down.

Many SA applicants of 3,4,5,6 and more years ago were signing up BECAUSE we were fighting an important fight, whereas the past couple of year applicants have signed up with an environment where they were unlikely to get in on the "action".

My question is what happens to the "warrior" who signed up during those years when it comes to peacetime? When the nature of the "job" changes, do many of those who joined for the "action" leave?

This fortuneteller has no crystal ball, but my point is not only does the Pentagon budget dictate the career options of the officer corps, but they too have a voice in whether the re-up into a military that is back to a peactime tempo.

Those in the pipeline (SAs ROTC) kind of knew the end is near, and the reduced numbers in the younger classes probably reflect a population that doesn't need the "action" to be fufilled in their military career. But those about to graduate whose numbers are probably too large for their projected peacetime mission may very well take care of the issue themselves when their careers aren't exactly what they expected 4 years ago.

 

[goldenlion]

I do think who is joining the military is changing, but for a different reason. Usually, military brats follow in their parents footsteps. However, for the current high school aged military brat, they have grown up with their parents constantly deployed. I know very, very few kids who want to join the military because they have experienced so much of the negative aspect of it as children. Instead of moving around to new places and meeting new friends, they only remember deployment after deployment after missed holiday, etc. The military tempo hasn't been easy on the children the last 10 years.

 

[AF6872]

"SUPPOSED".

 

[Christcorp]

One thing that hasn't been discussed in the "what will our officer corps look like in the future" is the different types of applicants that apply during times of "action" and times when the "action" is winding down.

Many SA applicants of 3,4,5,6 and more years ago were signing up BECAUSE we were fighting an important fight, whereas the past couple of year applicants have signed up with an environment where they were unlikely to get in on the "action".

My question is what happens to the "warrior" who signed up during those years when it comes to peacetime? When the nature of the "job" changes, do many of those who joined for the "action" leave?

When it comes to the academy, at least air force, I think the retention issue is a little different. You have to remember that 50% of the graduating academy class will have pilot slots. That has a 10 year commitment. I don't believe that the cadets take that decision lightly when choosing a career field. Of course, some of those individuals will wash out of pilot training; but for discussion sake, half of an academy graduating class is committed for at least 10 years. The other 50% of the graduating class has a percentage that knew pretty much from day 1 that they were going to do a "5-and-Dive". What I'm getting at I guess, is that I believe the retention desires are going to be about the same as it has been in the past. I think the problem will be recruiting new cadets as well as enlisted if the economy becomes better and the military draws down. But once they are in, I think it will be normal retention.

I do think who is joining the military is changing, but for a different reason. Usually, military brats follow in their parents footsteps. However, for the current high school aged military brat, they have grown up with their parents constantly deployed. I know very, very few kids who want to join the military because they have experienced so much of the negative aspect of it as children. Instead of moving around to new places and meeting new friends, they only remember deployment after deployment after missed holiday, etc. The military tempo hasn't been easy on the children the last 10 years.

My daughter followed your theory of not wanting to join the military. She didn't like all the moving around by me and the family in general. She went off to a civilian university and had a great time.

My son on the other had definitely wanted the military. He was heavily moved by 9-11. Granted, it was 6 years before he applied to the academy, but he's always had a desire for the military. 9-11 simply solidified his desire.

And the reason I know my son truly wanted the military, is because unlike the average high school graduate with a certain amount of options, his options were essentially limitless. He applied to more than 5 universities. He was accepted by all 5. Full rides to 4 of the schools. Prestigious schools. Grades and test scores to get into just about any school he wanted to. Yet, he turned down a number of full rides so he could accept the academy. He accepted a pilot slot which commits him for 10 years minimum. He was also selected for graduate school after the academy, so that will take on some more commitment.

So while the past war/deployments may have had some impact on Brats, I wouldn't say it was all negative. My kids put up with my constant TDY's and deployments. One kid didn't ever want to move again; (When she got her own apartment after college, it was 2 blocks from us. lol); the other kid was not negatively affected by the deployments.