Smaller USAFA class size

Discussion in 'Air Force Academy - USAFA' started by aglages, Dec 10, 2010.

  1. aglages

    aglages Parent

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    Rumor/speculation about the USAFA reducing the number of cadets appointed to the incoming class(es). Anybody else hear this?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 10, 2010
  2. Luigi59

    Luigi59 Banned

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    They need to do something to reduce the number of cadets at the Academy, which is currently way over (last count I saw was 4,700+) it's legally allowed maximum number (4,400).
     
  3. Stealth_81

    Stealth_81 Super Moderator Moderator Founding Member

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    Here are the latest numbers that I have, from October.


    Class Men Women Total
    2011 842 209 1051
    2012 885 240 1125
    2013 953 244 1197
    2014 957 275 1232
    WING 3637 968 4605

    It would appear that USAFA will have to trim the incoming classes to get the numbers back down. I haven't heard any concrete plans or numbers on that, yet.

    Stealth_81
     
  4. bandit

    bandit Member

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    is the regulation based on the number of cadets at the USAFA or the number that graduate?

    I thought the goal was to graduate 1000 per class. 2011 is at 1051 so that isn't that far off.

    2012 seems unusually high for a 2 dig class. 2013 will likely lose about 100 before commitment.
     
  5. aglages

    aglages Parent

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    I'm trying to apply common sense to a military issue so be sure to take my opinion with a healthy dose of salt:eek: :

    I would think that if Congress approved a maximum of 4400 cadets then that is what they budgeted for and that is the maximum number of cadets that should be attending the USAFA at any given time.

    While their hope/expectation might be for 1000 cadets per year being commissioned, I have always "heard" that each class looses approximatively 25% of it's beginning class before commissioning. If that is true (25% loss) then if you want 1000 commissioned 2nd LTs coming out of the pipeline 4 years later you will need to start with about 1300 and you will have more than 4400 cadets attending at any given time.

    I suspect that this is just another example of the Air Force pursuing it's current Reduction In Force.
     
  6. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    Here's the problem right now they are over the max. Right now the economy is in the tanks. Thus, one way to get the number in line is to offer less apptmts. Where yrs ago they offered 1600 apptmts, hoping for 1200, now they may be offering only 1200 because the acceptance rate has increased, thus expecting a class of 1K.

    Yes, the rule of thumb is 25%, but remember even if they lose that with a 1000 class size, they have the opportunity to make it up the difference in the officer roles for 15 by giving 2 and 3 yr ROTC plus OCS later on when the numbers come back in line.
     
  7. flieger83

    flieger83 Super Moderator Moderator

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    Here's what I will tell everyone, as a person that's pretty closely involved with the folks at USAFA/RR.

    NONE of you/us are going to know what's to be done. ONLY the folks in RR (admissions directorate) know what numbers they're projecting to attrit, what they see/foresee as potential appointee levels, etc.

    Speculating, while fun and sometimes interesting in this area...really isn't going to do much except cause a lot of candidates and their parents angst, as they foresee and "imagine" EVERY horrible scenario imagineable! :eek:

    "It will be what it will be..." and we'll all know around May when the AFA/RR folks release the numbers on appointments offered, appointments accepted, and the size of the entering class.

    It's gonna be a LONG winter.

    Steve
    USAFA ALO
    USAFA '83
     
  8. aglages

    aglages Parent

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    FWIW - This rumor/speculation was supposedly initiated by an ALO. Do some ALOs have more insight or inside knowledge of the USAFA/RR than other ALOs?

    One thing is certain: "It will be what it will be..." and we'll all know around May when the AFA/RR folks release the numbers on appointments offered, appointments accepted, and the size of the entering class."
     
  9. 2011's Mom

    2011's Mom Parent

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    The number of cadets is determined by Congress. The approved limit is 4400. That number is computed on the day before the last date of the academic year. USAFA has been high for several years. How they address the excess is something that none of us can really even guess at. But the bottom line is that USAFA has been over the 4400 for at least 4 years (assuming 2011 remains high, which I'd expect given the current numbers). I don't have the numbers for prior years (before 2008) handy but imagine they were likely high prior to 2008 as well.

    TITLE 10 > Subtitle B > PART III > CHAPTER 403 > § 4342
    Prev | Next
    § 4342. Cadets: appointment; numbers, territorial distribution
    How Current is This?
    (a) The authorized strength of the Corps of Cadets of the Academy (determined for any year as of the day before the last day of the academic year) is 4,400 or such lower number as may be prescribed by the Secretary of the Army under subsection (j).
     
  10. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    And making that elusive golden ticket (LOA) even more desirable which will create even more angst.
     
  11. flieger83

    flieger83 Super Moderator Moderator

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    No, they typically don't. They can speak with folks, discuss, rumor-monger, whisper, etc., but the only person that probably knows the real answer is Col Benyshek, and she may not know yet because all the numbers aren't in. It is very early in the process. It may have been mentioned at the "State Director" level but I'm sure it's not in stone, directed, etc. I'm a Dep'y Director and I've not even heard any numbers mentioned yet and I've been up there a few times this cycle.

    Steve
    USAFA ALO
    USAFA '83
     
  12. USAFA10s

    USAFA10s USAFA Class of 2012 WPAFB

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    And we feel the strain of being over the max as well. Especially with the construction on the dorms, most 3 digs end up in a 3 man room at least one semester and occasionally even a junior or two (I roomed with a junior and another sophomore last year).
     
  13. tennisfan88

    tennisfan88 USAFA 2014

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    I was in the registrar's office last week and I heard this conversation between two officers:
    "So we have too many cadets in the wing right now....what do you think we should do?"
     
  14. aglages

    aglages Parent

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    Thank you flieger83. I would think that a decision to get "back" to 4400 cadets within one class year would be something that would be well known within the USAFA hierarchy and eventually to the ALOs. Perhaps this is something that just seems likely/possible to outsiders because of the RIF and the cutbacks in AFROTC scholarships and Field Training slots.

    How do you think that the USAFA reached the point of being 200-300 cadets over the number approved by Congress? I could understand a really outstanding class or two of candidates that USAFA/RR appointed more than they should have, or less attrition for a class or two than expected, but this over enrollment seems to happen regularly. Is the 4400 not a "hard" number that the USAFA must live within? I'm just curious how this works and I appreciate any insight or historical perspective you might have.
     
  15. luckymacy

    luckymacy Member

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    Ugh, you guys are killin' me. Good thing my son doesn't read these forums anymore...how depressing it is for those without LOAs this year...:eek:

    I'm going flying today, mabye RC, maybe my real plane, maybe both. Here's a pic of my plane for those in to this sort of thing. Not looking at this board until tomorow, maybe....

    [​IMG]
    Anyone else fly? Sure hope we get the chance someday to fly from PA to CO to see the son there but these stats sure are depressing. Hope this is just rumor mongering and not really going to mount to much this year. Out!
     
  16. bandit

    bandit Member

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    It doesn't seem possible to me, if the goal has been to graduate 1000 cadets to ever have only 4400 cadets at any given time.

    If attrition is 25%, then you need bring in 1300. So if you have three underclasses at varying stages of attrition and the firsties at 1000 you are always going to have more than 4400.

    Now if the goals changes and they don't care if they graduate 1000 cadets, then they can easily bring the number down to 4400. But, unless the rate of attrition suddenly changes, you cannot graduate 1000 cadets per year and have 4400 cadets. The numbers just don't work.

    Like everything else the gov't does. The pendulum will swing from one extreme to the other. If they cut back to 900 incoming this year, and end up only graduating 675 suddenly people will be asking what happened. Just like they have the RIF now and you watch a few years down the road when the economy is better, they will be paying bonuses to keep officers.
     
  17. Luigi59

    Luigi59 Banned

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    I believe that number is pure speculation, as I have never seen or heard any official statement by USAFA to confirm a goal to graduate 1,000 per year.
     
  18. buffalo

    buffalo USAFA 2013

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    It doesn't seem like Sijan has it too bad with room arrangements. Most 3*s I know living there are in 2 man rooms. But I agree, us squadrons being displaced by Vandy construction are feeling the strain. Every 3* in my squadron this semester was in a 3 man room. Next semester we're moving into the renovated dorms, but we're losing rooms in the process such that all 2* rooms but one will be 3 man rooms.

    It is frusturating.


    On a side note: me 1, Dean 0
     
  19. bsa07eagle

    bsa07eagle Member

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    Next semester, there are some firsties going into 3 man rooms, it seems really tight in our squad. Not sure if it will change after the renovation.

    Later,

    Brian

    me:1 going on 2 Dean:0
     
  20. raimius

    raimius USAFA Alumnus

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    Luckymacy,

    That is a nice RV-8! How do you have it set up, instruments and engine wise?
     

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