Still in the Game?

Discussion in 'Naval Academy - USNA' started by Firehawk1, Jan 31, 2016.

  1. Firehawk1

    Firehawk1 Member

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    I would appreciate a confirmation on the following thought:

    Reading the “Appointment Thread”, I saw an appointment from our State and District. It mentioned a “Congressional Nom”. I would assume this indicates the nomination is from our district representative and not a nomination from one of our State Senators or other nomination source. The MOCs in our state communicate with each other and do not double nominated candidates. Since my DS’s nomination came from that representative, I believe his only remaining shot is via the “national pool”. Other threads indicate the “national pool” will amount to roughly 400 offers of appointment out of roughly 2000 relegated to that pool. Am I on track?
     
  2. Maplerock

    Maplerock Proud to be an American

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    Yes, but it is still very possible to gain an appointment. It depends upon the competition.
     
  3. 5Day

    5Day Member

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    On the bright side. DS had a 1/10 chance on the MOC slate, now has a 1/5 chance in the national pool. It's not over till mid April.
     
  4. Firehawk1

    Firehawk1 Member

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    HaHa - I like your thought process, I had the same odds running through my head. Although we both know it's not a pure odds game. It really will come down to how he ranks competitively with the odds in favor of those ranked highest. In retrospect, he had a near zero chance on the MOC slate. The candidate that received the appointment had a LOA while DS did not.
     
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  5. usnabgo08

    usnabgo08 USNA 2008/BGO

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    First, you don't know if your DS is triple qualified (unless you mentioned this in a previous thread)...that is a BIG piece of the puzzle. It doesn't matter if your DS is in the national pool, if he isn't triple qualified. Second, he/she (appointee you mentioned) might have listed their MOC as being charged to their appointment, but that may or may not be true and still could change. Third, if he is triple qualified but not a slate winner, around 150 appointments come from the national pool from those fully qualified (by law) and if there are ~1,250 offers (1,400 total offers - 150 offers from national pool) NOT from the national pool (we will presume that those declining appointments ARE NOT from the national pool, although, this certainly isn't true), then that means about 1,750 candidates are fully qualified in the national pool. The rate of being accepted from the national pool would be under 9%. This is "rough" math....so combining this with a previous thread....if a candidate is fully qualified, it is around 43% of being appointed; however, if a candidate is fully qualified and did not win his/her slate, then it goes down to 9% (since the candidate is fighting ~1,750 others for 1 of 150 slots). Also, this doesn't factor in that 75% of those selected from the national pool MUST have received a MOC nomination (though, it probably doesn't impact the numbers that much). This is where the Whole Person Multiple starts coming into play and why multiple candidates from the same area COULD get appointments...they ALL might have high multiples. Bottom line...don't worry, it is what it is. Find some good distractions over the next 2-2.5 months.
     
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  6. scouthollins

    scouthollins Member

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    So even if someone else is appointed straight out of the box with the same nom you have then you can still be appointed from the NWL even if they accept?
     
  7. usnabgo08

    usnabgo08 USNA 2008/BGO

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    I don't quite understand your question...but I think I am following what you are asking, so I hope the below example answers it.
    If there are 10 candidates for a given Congressman's slate (Candidates A thru J) and USNA decides Candidate C is the slate winner (the one who is charged to the Congressman), then Candidates A, B, and D-J all go into the national pool and compete for an appointment there. It is also possible that these candidates could be on other nominating slates (i.e. Candidate A is also on the Senator's slate) and the same process is applied, however, the candidate only "appears" once in the national pool, if it is applicable (i.e. they weren't selected for an appointment as another slate winner).

    I also need to amend my statement above....there can be more than 150 from the national pool...the 150 I stated above is only for those who have a MOC nomination, but then additional candidates can be appointed -- variable number -- but at least 75% of those must be from MOC nominations. I would say the odds, strictly by numbers, are between 15-25% of being selected from the national pool.
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2016
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  8. 624mom

    624mom Member

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    This is why I have refused to read the appointment thread!

    It has been pointed out that we have no way of knowing who the appointment is charged to. Hearing/seeing that someone from our district/state has been appointed will just cause undo stress! You can't unsee what you have but keep the faith! It's not over until the USNA informs you it's over!
     
  9. SCMids

    SCMids Member

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    I was under the impression that an LOA does not count against an MOC's slate. If so, you are still in the running for that slot. Can anyone confirm my understanding?
     
  10. 624mom

    624mom Member

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    The appointment has to be charged to someone. From the explanations we got from DS BGO and other mid parents you many never know who your appointment is actually charged to. Meaning if you only have one nom don't assume you were charged there. There are cases every year of multiple candidates from a single slate getting in. Since each MOC has a finite number of charges those extra appointments get charged elsewhere.

    So, in short, the LOA has to be charged to someone. The Academy could elect to just appoint the LOA and no one else from that slate and charge it as such.
     
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  11. Jbelonga

    Jbelonga Member

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    This is absolutely correct. I live in Texas, a very competitive state with lots of applicants annually. My MOC has, as far back as I can see (3-4 years), sent half of the nominees to one of the big 3 service academies (20 nom = 10 sent, 10 nom =5 sent)
     
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