USAFA appointment statistics

Discussion in 'Air Force Academy - USAFA' started by navalaviator, Feb 3, 2014.

  1. navalaviator

    navalaviator Member

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    Hey guys! I just received my congressional nomination to the Air Force Academy on Friday, and have a quick question regarding an appointment. I was curious if someone could tell me my chance of obtaining an appointment to USAFA (statistically speaking). I am a Triple Q'ed candidate with a nomination from Philadelphia, Pa. Thank you!
     
  2. nolifepilot

    nolifepilot USAFA Cadet

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    It all depends on who you are competing against in your district, but for the Class of 2017 at USAFA there were:

    2277 Qualified Candidates (where you are at)
    1475 Offers of Admission

    So roughly a 65% chance.

    But remember, there could be many superstars in your area, so these numbers don't really mean much except when looked at nationally. Good luck! :thumb:
     
  3. navalaviator

    navalaviator Member

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    Great, thank you so much! I'm in the first congressional district which encompasses the area in, and around Philadelphia.
     
  4. andzgrl

    andzgrl Member

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    Has USAFA notified candidates of their 3Q status? I'm wondering how you know this?

    Congrats on the Nomination!! We're waiting here too!!!
     
  5. navalaviator

    navalaviator Member

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    They haven't notified me yet, but I'm qualified via DoDMERB, I passed my CFA, and my understanding is as long as you reach candidate status, you're academically qualified. Good luck to you too!
     
  6. hornetguy

    hornetguy USAFA Cadet

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    The only one that matters: Did not complete application: 0%. ;)

    Turn it in then hurry up and wait.
     
  7. USMC_Ordie

    USMC_Ordie Member

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    Close. If your ACT/SAT scores do NOT have brackets around them, then you are academically competitive.

    You can be a Candidate just by receiving a nomination, and not actually be 'Academically Competitive'.

    Make sense?
     
  8. navalaviator

    navalaviator Member

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    Oh, that makes sense. So will they ever formally notify me that I am triple qualified?
     
  9. CannotBeDisplayed

    CannotBeDisplayed Member

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    Not USAFA. I believe USMA is the only one that does that.
     
  10. Christcorp

    Christcorp Member

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    Odds, percentage, chances, etc... are simply too complicated to determine. As already has been mentioned, it is totally based on your competition. You compete at the district level of your state, as well as possibly at the national level. There's also "other" areas where you may be competing, such as against those with a presidential, ROTC, VP, etc... nomination.

    Using the most simplest example. There are 435 US representatives. There are 100 senators. That's 535 slates with 10 names each; = 5350 Nominees. We'll take out 25% for those who have more than one MOC nomination, and we're in the ball park of approximately 4,000 individuals with nominations. YET.... there are only between 1,000 and 1,200 actual appointments.

    To complicate it a little more, of those 1,000 - 1,200 appointments, approximately 100 are going to be from those with a Presidential nomination. Another 20 will be from those with an ROTC nomination. Another 50+ will be prior enlisted. Then, there's the other misc nominations. So, for the sake of argument, let's say there's 950-975 for those with MOC nominations.

    Now, assuming that ALL 535 MOCs had a slot, and thus submitted a slate of 10 names, the academy, whether they like it or not, MUST give one appointment per slate. (There's 3 different ways that appointment can be decided, but that's no important here). What's important is; if YOU are the BEST and #1 rated on your MOC's list, then you probably have nothing to worry about. But for the sake of argument, let's assume you aren't the #1 best applicant on your MOC's list. That means, another 535 appointments out of 950-975 we narrowed down to, have been given out. That leaves approximately 450 appointments left to give out.

    Now remember; not counting the presidentials, vp, etc... we came up with approximately 4,000 individuals with MOC nominations. We'll even shorten that list down and say that 1,000 of those individuals are somehow not qualified. E.g. medically, CFA, academic. That leaves 3,000. Minus the 535 appointments that we already gave out, that leave 2,465 individuals competing over 450 remaining appointments. Which means:

    ASSUMING you are medically, physically, and academically qualified:

    1. If you are the BEST and #1 on your MOC's slate, then you have a 90% chance of an appointment. (The reason it's not 100% is because of variables such as being on more than 1 list and someone ahead of you turning down the appointment). But we are assuming that you are the BEST on the slate.

    2. If you aren't the BEST on the slate, and you must compete in the national pool, then you have an 18.25% chance of receiving an appointment.

    FWIW: Because it totally depends on your competition, and no one knows your competition, the 18.25% number implies that ALL applicants in the national pool are equal in their application. The truth is, you could have such a strong application vs the other 2,465 individuals, that your chances could be at 97.38%. On the other hand, you migh have been the #10 on your MOC's slate, and number $2460 on the national list, giving you a 1.34% chance. Statistics SUCK. Best of luck to you.
     
  11. navymomwannabe

    navymomwannabe Member

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    AMEN!
     
  12. aglages

    aglages Parent

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    I believe the academy is only required to give a nomination to qualified candidates. It is possible that none of a MOCs candidates are qualified candidates. In that case I do not believe the academy is required to give a nomination to anyone on that slate.
     
  13. kinnem

    kinnem Moderator

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    I thought about raising the same point but, like John Belushi, he was on a roll.
     
  14. Christcorp

    Christcorp Member

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    OK. I will "Concede" that there is a possibility, albeit extremely slim, that a MOC could provide a slate of 10 names and NO ONE on the list is qualified. I've never heard of it happening but it is possible. I would have to defer to Steve; "Flieger". He's been an ALO a whole lot longer than I have. But I've never heard of it happening.
     
  15. Christcorp

    Christcorp Member

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    One of my favorite scenes in Animal House. I love it. :thumb:
    http://youtu.be/V8lT1o0sDwI
     
  16. aglages

    aglages Parent

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    CC: I would think it more likely that it would happen on a MOC slate that had less than 10 names. My understanding is that there are some Congressional districts where few and sometimes no one applies for an appointment.
     
  17. MombaBomba

    MombaBomba Member

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    In the North East, there are far more nomination applicants for the USMA and USNA. While my son was interviewing, I chatted with the congressional staff about their congressional nomination process. They gave me some interesting information:

    They get the most nomination requests by far for the USMA and the USNA (usually neck and neck).
    A far distant third varies between the USAFA and Coast Guard
    Fifth goes to the Merchant Marine Academy.

    I wonder if the statistics are different out west, as logistically they are closer to the USAFA and thus students may be more aware of it.
     
  18. coastiefam

    coastiefam Member

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    Well they shouldn't be getting ANY Coast Guard requests as a nomination is not required!

    Sent using the Service Academy Forums® mobile app
     
  19. USAFA83GradWife

    USAFA83GradWife Member

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    I can't speak for all areas in the west, but I can say that in AZ at my DD school, there are 5 USNA, 3 USAFA, 1 USMA and 1 USMM

    Maybe it's the lack of water out here that draws them to USNA. :biggrin:
     
  20. MombaBomba

    MombaBomba Member

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    My bad. I think its the water thing. :) I keep confusing the Coast Guard Academy and the Merchant Marine Academy. No disrespect to any of the service academies is intended. I didn't grow up in a military household, and I was not familiar with any of the service academies other than USMA while in secondary school (graduated in 84), though I had heard of the USNA through my father's friend (a graduate). I learned of the Merchant Marine Academy while I was in college because I had a friend who's boyfriend went there. I learned about the USAFA through my son's sport participation.

    Its a distant 3rd for USAFA and Merchant Marine but the USAFA usually has a few more.
     

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