I think for candidates that are seeing a 200 cut from last yr for this year, they will see that as drastic, especially since the following yr will only decrease by another 70 from ty. If you look at it from the 15 candidates perspective, over 3 yrs @340 will be cut, the avg would be @113 a yr. Yet 15 is taking the brunt now.
It all comes down to perspective. When you are in the fight every blow hurts. When you are watching it from outside the ring it doesn't seem as bad as it looks.
Let's also admit that if the economy doesn't improve in the next few yrs and grads don't dive at 5 or 8 or 10, they may have to re-address the issue again re: RIF or SA numbers, the way to tell will always be watch ROTC and OTC. They always get hit 1st.
There was no July OTC board for non-rated last yr. It was delayed to last month. ROTC selected the lowest amount of SFT cadets from a historical standpoint for ly. The writing was on the wall that 12 and 13 were just too big in size for AFAD manpower to absorb them when they got commissioned. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the AF was doing everything possible to cut everywhere before attacking the AFA. It just happened to be that at the end of the day, they couldn't scrape up enough to not approach the issue with the amount of cadets at the AFA.
OBTW, JMPO, but you could have also seen the RIF coming before the announcement...the minute they separate AFA grads who bust out of UPT, is a big sign. In good times, they will wash them back, they will convert them to a new career field. In bad times, they thank them for their service and cut them loose. It makes fiscal sense.